NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Newman said: 18z looks to be going OTS with no ridge to throw it back west. Still an eternity away Incorrect, landfall in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: Going for the Carolinas or OTS ? I think she may be going OTS. Ridge isn't building fast enough to her NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So the EC Ensemble mean BARELY misses Miami, sharp turn and landfall in South Carolina. The OP EC is a significant outlier to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Landfall in Eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NC hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: I think she may be going OTS. Ridge isn't building fast enough to her NE. Check again, landfall in the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: Looks like all of them are pointed towards the Carolinas They could recurve sharply ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Indirect, landfall in the Carolinas. You are right. Premature by me as I was looking at 162 out and right after ridge begins to build over top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Euro 2.0. And she's goin to the fish. Think before you post not going ots this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 some terrible analysis, let the run play out if you don't have a firm grasp of this...even the best of the best don't have a firm grasp on this. predicting a model solution, which is even further removed from predicting the weather, seems more ego based than analytical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: I think she may be going OTS. Ridge isn't building fast enough to her NE. What's the point of guessing the track before the next frame even comes out? Just let te run play itself out. Then analyze it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Summary of 18z GFS: step toward 12z ECMWF but not enough to prevent landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 wow, close call with east coast of FL on the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Landfall around hr200 in North Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 These play by play speculations are horrible, you guys need to let the model run first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Position-wise it's not that far off from the 12z GFS. Still quite a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Summary of 18z GFS: step toward 12z ECMWF but not enough to prevent landfall. Are you sure? I haven't looked yet but I read ots, SC landfall and NC landfall. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Summary of 18z GFS: step toward 12z ECMWF but not enough to prevent landfall. Will additional steps be taken towards the euro or another solution at the 0z runTBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Will additional steps be taken towards the euro or another solution at the 0z runTBD. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Are you sure? I haven't looked yet but I read ots, SC landfall and NC landfall. Sigh. this should make it clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Keep us posted. going to bed early. will see what happens in the morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Landfall in Eastern NC That's not eastern NC if we're talking potential coastal landfall locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There's a pretty significant shift south at 120. This brings the GFS into even better consensus with the ECMWF and UKMET. It does appear that there is a slight turn left like what the UKMET shows after 120 and then a turn to the north before 168. There would definitely be a lot of lingering time in the Bahamas if model depiction becomes reality. You can also see Irma starting to interact with the trough by hour 144 and by hour 168 the cyclone is clearly tucked into the RER of an anticyclonically curved ULL jet streak so it should have a lot ULL divergence and a good outflow channel to support a deep cyclone. So far there is nothing I see with this 18Z run to make me think forecast confidence isn't above average at D5 lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That's 897?Ominous.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: That's not eastern NC if we're talking potential coastal landfall locations. That landfall is basically directly over Camp Lejune/ Jacksonville NC....then it tracks right up I 95 through eastern NC....this is MBY's worse possible outcome I would be in the immediate east side eyewall without getting the center... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 this run also doesn't cut hard inland but runs somewhat along the coast, bringing appreciable storminess up through delaware, and if it kicks NE as the run continues, would give some nasty weather through the nj/li/se NE corridor as large deep storms don't wind down too quickly especially with an increase in forward speed. a slightly more eastern track maintaining the due north or nnw component could be much worse for many more places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 really meanders in the VA area after landfall, could be some heavy rainfall there if it maintains trop characteristics and if there are any disturbances moving through at the time for enhancement. there are so many ways this storm could cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The pressure outputs from this GFS run are inconceivable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Once she gets into central Virginia it looks like the pressure kicks up pretty quickly (showing 979 at 222 hours) and the 10m winds are basically a strong breeze. Still some tropical storm force indicated over the Chesapeake, but the winds inland are all under 35 kts. This run has a really weird look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 When is the last time the Miami area faced TS conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.