Windspeed Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Irma's eye isn't forecast to reach 60W until Wedneday morning. A prolific ACE producer. This will be a marathon to track. Though changes in the 5 day forecast are likely, communities in the Antilles should have no surprises with such a long lead-up to potential impact. The WSW 500mb steering flow grabs attention. Certainly does not hurt to sure up a plan and have one it in place just in case. Start minor preperations. It's been a number of years since a major hurricane impacted the Leewards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Radically different 500mb pattern this run compared to last run. GFS really struggling with the evolution of that trough in the east, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: The GFS has been overdoing TC intensity after the upgrade this summer, so be careful. It's too conservative on spinning developing them in the first place, but when it does -- it drastically overdoes it. A known issue at this point. Who knows how long it'll take to fix that. Did it drastically over do Harvey? I don't remember... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Lets get 500mb straight before we focus on surface. i don't see a "escape" route. Yeah, no way Irma wouldn't impact the northeast/EC with this kind of setup/pattern in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 As someone said in the SE tropical forum how does it plow thru that ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Did it drastically over do Harvey? I don't remember... No. It did alright with Harvey. However, Harvey had a relatively small window to strengthen and there wasn't really time for the spin-up bias to show up. The longer-lived longer range tau-time cyclones are the ones experiencing issues at the moment (e.g. TY Noru last month -- it spun that up to <870mb on a few runs, for instance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hope the GFS is right, but it seems on its own right now with it going out to sea with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, ncskywarn said: As someone said in the SE tropical forum how does it plow thru that ridge? It wouldn't, that should be tracking W there, GFS has always had issues with lows both tropical and mid latitude plowing head strong right into ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, csnavywx said: No. It did alright with Harvey. However, Harvey had a relatively small window to strengthen and there wasn't really time for the spin-up bias to show up. The longer-lived tau-time cyclones are the ones experiencing issues at the moment. GFS may be a bit overdone sure, but aside from island/topographic interaction, I don't see any way this doesn't become a high-end cat 4 to cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, csnavywx said: No. It did alright with Harvey. However, Harvey had a relatively small window to strengthen and there wasn't really time for the spin-up bias to show up. The longer-lived longer range tau-time cyclones are the ones experiencing issues at the moment (e.g. TY Noru last month). Ah, that makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: GFS may be a bit overdone sure, but aside from island/topographic interaction, I don't see any way this doesn't become a high-end cat 4 to cat 5. The synoptics favor a cat4/cat 5 for sure. Just probably not a sub 900mb storm (those are exceedingly rare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Not sure why some are saying out to sea. It looks poised to nail New England/ Maine at truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 So what did the 12z GFS depict as a lowest pressure with Irma? I couldn't read the damn central pressure because of all the isobars on Pivotal Weather's site...lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not sure why some are saying out to sea. It looks poised to nail New England/ Maine at truncation. Yeah it hits into Nova Scotia. Even all the previous runs eventually hit something up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: So what did the 12z GFS depict as a lowest pressure with Irma? I couldn't read the damn central pressure because of all the isobars on Pivotal Weather's site...lol! 898mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Not sure why some are saying out to sea. It looks poised to nail New England/ Maine at truncation. Ya looks like it makes landfall near Eastport, Maine/ N.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Irma phases with the ULL and still almost re-curves and tired to ram into the ridge? Whacked out run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 898mb @ 204. 917mb @ 240 before the GFS starts running at a lower resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The GFS has been overdoing TC intensity after the upgrade this summer, so be careful. It's too conservative on spinning developing them in the first place, but when it does -- it drastically overdoes it. A known issue at this point. Who knows how long it'll take to fix that. Lean towards the EC and HMON -- they've been doing better. Having said that, they both show a very strong cane still.I noticed the GFS overdoing intensity on a few higher latitude long and well-establiahed systems in the WPAC. It seems to be doing the same with Irma. I don't know how much that throws off the long range modeling due to the higher intensity versus surrounding features, but it may be an issue and something to watch. The 900mb pressures near 40° latitude do seem a bit absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Irma phases with the ULL and still almost re-curves and tired to ram into the ridge? Whacked out run. The differences between the 00z euro and now the 12Z GFS are remarkably large. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: 898mb @ 204. 917mb @ 240 before the GFS resolutions drops off. Do I not see an 890 at 216 on PW?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Do I not see an 890 at 216 on PW?? Just looked it showed 900 at hour 216 on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: It wouldn't, that should be tracking W there, GFS has always had issues with lows both tropical and mid latitude plowing head strong right into ridges. YES! We see it all of the time in the winter with GFS depicting cutters right through a massive arctic high. Especially at this long lead time. IF the ridge is placed correctly, expect a correction further south and west as the days go by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Do I not see an 890 at 216 on PW?? Looks like 900, but it is hard to tell on PW. Tropical Tidbits is definitely 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 HMON stabilizes the cane in the 960s in that more marginal region of SSTs before strengthening it again after D4/D5. One concerning note is that this storm will have the chance to do multiple ERCs and the circulation may be quite large by the time it gets into possible threat range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Lol at the TC heading toward the east coast at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Lesson to be learned to the posters that said this would be a fish storm on 12z gfs let the run finish. Ends up hitting Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The system probably has to be at 18N or higher when it gets to 60W. If it's not, and especially if it's at 15N or slightly south of there it's highly unlikely to escape. As a matter of fact if it's 15N or south it's also unlikely to even hit the SE US as a strong system because it would have to go over Hispaniola. It would be more likely to enter the GOM at that point than anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Lesson to be learned to the posters that said this would be a fish storm on 12z gfs let the run finish. Ends up hitting Maine. What lesson? This is still 10 days out? It will change again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: HMON stabilizes the cane in the 960s in that more marginal region of SSTs before strengthening it again after D4/D5. One concerning note is that this storm will have the chance to do multiple ERCs and the circulation may be quite large by the time it gets into possible threat range. TS force and even hurricane-force windfield on the GFS is absolutely massive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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