Casualbrain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Francis and Floyd could be good analogs per the Historical track map at NOAA https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: As of this afternoon, my thinking is that East Coast landfall remains more likely than not (approximately a 60% probability). The Southeast (especially in an area running from Georgia to North Carolina) is probably much more likely to see landfall than an area running from Virginia to New England. However, I don't think the 12z ECMWF can be dismissed outright. Whether a deep low forms over eastern Canada could hold the key. Looking back to past storms, there's one potential close fit to what the ECMWF is showing: Hurricane #6 in 1866, which peaked as a Category 4 storm before recurving sharply away from the U.S. East Coast. Just out of curiosity, how in the world were they able to record such detailed data back then about a hurricanes track and intensity without satellites and all of the weather instruments we have today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Ridingtime said: Just out of curiosity, how in the world were they able to record such detailed data back then about a hurricanes track and intensity without satellites and all of the weather instruments we have today? Ships and educated guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 OP EC is a bit of an outlier to the EC ensembles - a bunch of Ensemble members into the GOM, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ridingtime said: Just out of curiosity, how in the world were they able to record such detailed data back then about a hurricanes track and intensity without satellites and all of the weather instruments we have today? The detail was not as great as it is today. But data could be plotting from busy shipping lanes and then on land. Re-analysis provided additional extrapolated data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS faster at 72. not much difference elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: GFS faster at 72. not much difference elsewhere. So we have the GFS trending faster and the Euro trending slower...hmm... so far Irma seems to be moving closer to the pace of the GFS than Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18z looks about 50-75mi west of 12z at hr 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, WesterlyWx said: 18z looks about 50-75mi west of 12z at hr 102. and 15mb lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I hate to say it, but looks like the euro storm is on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 I would imagine they would need a special advisory to adjust the pressure. That's a major difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: I hate to say it, but looks like the euro storm is on this run. I was thinking that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The detail was not as great as it is today. But data could be plotting from busy shipping lanes and then on land. Re-analysis provided additional extrapolated data.Yes. Barometers were pretty common place by the 1860s in ports, island communties and especially ships. Though far from perfect, logs were reconstructed to get an idea of location, track and intensity. Obviously things got a lot better communication-wise with telegraph lines and an organized bureau. Still, many intense storms were likley never recorded away from land or in the absence of ships.Back to Irma, the most important info out of the VDM was the pressure and size of the eyewall. 958 with a 30nm diameter without a concentric feature. If cloud debris can clear out this may deepen significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Yes. Barometers were pretty common place by the 1860s in ports, island communties and especially ships. Though far from perfect, logs were reconstructed to get an idea of location, track and intensity. Obviously things got a lot better communication-wise with telegraph lines and an organized bureau. Still, many intense storms were likley never recorded away from land or in the absence of ships. Back to Irma, the most important info out of the VDM was the pressure and size of the eyewall. 958 with a 30nm diameter without a concentric feature. If cloud debris can clear out this may deepen significantly. I think the guidance that shows rapid intensification is probably reasonable. I'm not sure about a sub 900 mb pressure, but something around 920 mb is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 To my untrained eye, WAR looks a good bit weaker, this is looking very Euroish. Thinking this may have an escape OTS just like the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Tommy untrained eye, WAR looks a good bit weaker, this is looking very Euroish. Thinking this may have an escape OTS just like the Euro... It's more like the Euro, yes. Let's see if it builds in the ridge to pull it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: It's more like the Euro, yes. Let's see if it builds in the ridge to pull it west. The ridge in the lakes is building at hr 159 and elongating East for the block I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's turning North at the last second, going to miss Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: To my untrained eye, WAR looks a good bit weaker, this is looking very Euroish. Thinking this may have an escape OTS just like the Euro... It's a bit like it, but not quite as guns blazing with the New England trough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 The ULL over Canada is much weaker and more progressive than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 weak circulation already noticed in the southern Gulf. uh o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is a piece of energy from a decaying ULL in MO that could nudge it west at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Trough lifting out at 168, looks headed for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hr 162 ridge is way weaker. Turning due N right over central Bahamas. you can see on the 500mb maps the opening for her to go right OTS, unlike 12z where the ridge built in from the east and right over top of her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Sophisticated Skeptic said: weak circulation already noticed in the southern Gulf. uh o This doesn't belong here, put it in the ATL season thread since this has nearly nothing to do with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 At 162 the eye is due east of Miami but 30+ kt onshore winds extend up to the OBX. If that were to verify the southern coast would see pretty strong onshore winds for a couple of days, regardless of where the storm center winds up. That's a problem in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18z looks to be going OTS with no ridge to throw it back west. Still an eternity away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said: Going for the Carolinas or OTS ? Euro 2.0. And she's goin to the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Note the farther south extension of trough on Euro compared to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Though still early, these training runs over the Bahamas are concerning for them. Some of these same areas got blasted by Matthew not even 11 months ago. Irma may be larger and more intense. A hard pill to swallow. Still, we need a few more days of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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