bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm looking at the Irma spaghetti plots right now. The Op passes within a couple hundred miles of MIA then turns north. That is right in the middle of the EPS members. The EPS mean is left of OP track since the ridge to the north is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 My thoughts haven't really changed, LF between Florida and OBX the most likely outcome and then NW from there. I'd give about a 25% chance of a LF further North or OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: My thoughts haven't really changed, LF between Florida and OBX the most likely outcome and then NW from there. I'd give about a 25% chance of a LF further North or OTS. I don't really see how you can possibly make calls like this at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 casa de akeem might be in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: I don't really see how you can possibly make calls like this at this juncture. Agree 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Guys and gals, especially the Mets. I haven't seen anyone touch on this subject yet. Isn't the Euro notorious for holding back cutoffs in the winter time when attempting to eject out of the desert southwest in order for us to get our blockbuster snowstorms in the east? If so, wouldn't this apply to the New England cutoff, whereas it is once again showing its hand and its inability to correctly portray these types of set-ups? I may be way off but figured it'd be a good topic of discussion. Way different setup but nevertheless I think it holds weight. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Yeah its kind of a one off thing the Euro throws out there ever 5th run lol....realistically there is fairly scary agreement last run not withstanding between the GFS/Euro...if they continue to threaten the Carolinas through tomorrow I will go buy a generator, and water and fill all the gas cans etc....if this still looks likely by Tues/Wed and the news starts really hyping it things are gonna get bad. No fuel, no water, grocery store with bare shelves etc. Do what I did, a month before the Derecho of 2012 - go buy that stuff anyway, and free yourself from worry. We were without power for four days (some up to two weeks), and I was mighty glad I had a power source at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phimuskapsi Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: I don't really see how you can possibly make calls like this at this juncture. Exactly. Especially when the models together look like this: (Courtesy Allan Huffman) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Irma entering the Hebert Box should be the red flag you need to see LF. In addition, a strong hurricane will pump heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree 10 days out 10 days out ? The NHC has it over the Bahamas in 5 days. Would it really take 5 days to get from the Bahamas to FL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS mean is left of OP track since the ridge to the north is stronger. The Op passes roughly between those two points. That looks awfully close to the middle to me. I guess I should have said ever so slightly right of center? The 12z EPS definitely prolonged westerly movement over previous runs, you can say that. But saying the EPS is well west of the Op is not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys and gals, especially the Mets. I haven't seen anyone touch on this subject yet. Isn't the Euro notorious for holding back cutoffs in the winter time when attempting to eject out of the desert southwest in order for us to get our blockbuster snowstorms in the east? If so, wouldn't this apply to the New England cutoff, whereas it is once again showing its hand and its inability to correctly portray these types of set-ups? I may be way off but figured it'd be a good topic of discussion. Way different setup but nevertheless I think it holds weight. Thoughts? No. It doesn't have the same bias up there. As a matter of fact the Euro often gets things more accurate than the GFS in Canada. Especially eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, phimuskapsi said: Exactly. Especially when the models together look like this: (Courtesy Allan Huffman) Notice where the main cluster is? I'm speaking in percentages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, phimuskapsi said: Exactly. Especially when the models together look like this: (Courtesy Allan Huffman) Probably the most useful map posted yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 The EPS mean eventually ends up near NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 34 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Still some dancing going on with the models. We might not know where this thing goes until it is in the Bahamas. it's what i've been saying for the last few days when people ask me. the main inflection point for all the models was between the Leewards and the central Bahamas. so when we get to leewards and then the central Bahamas, that's when we'll start to worry and be able to pick our spots. until then, it has been a crap shoot at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Op passes roughly between those two points. That looks awfully close to the middle to me. I guess I should have said ever so slightly right of center? The 12z EPS definitely prolonged westerly movement over previous runs, you can say that. But saying the EPS is well west of the Op is not correct. No problem. We'll say the mean is west of the OP when near FL. Becomes more obvious at D10 when nearly all members are further west than OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree 10 days out More like 8 or so from any *potential* landfall unless it slows down dramatically... and more like 4/5 before we have a more concrete view of what is going to happen with the WAR and the MW/EC trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The Op passes roughly between those two points. That looks awfully close to the middle to me. I guess I should have said ever so slightly right of center? The 12z EPS definitely prolonged westerly movement over previous runs, you can say that. But saying the EPS is well west of the Op is not correct. I think it depends what you're looking at. Seeing a closed "center" contour over Florida on the map bluewave posted perhaps makes it seem farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No. It doesn't have the same bias up there. As a matter of fact the Euro often gets things more accurate than the GFS in Canada. Especially eastern Canada. Good to know. Thanks for the response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I think it depends what you're looking at. Seeing a closed "center" contour over Florida on the map bluewave posted perhaps makes it seem farther west. Yeah, I'm not looking at mean MSLP (because that will be affected by strength of individual members), I'm looking at the tracks of each individual member. They stayed westerly longer, shifted to more landfalls, but the Op is not really east of the centerline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, andyhb said: I don't really see how you can possibly make calls like this at this juncture. Of course you can. It's a probabilistic forecast. You can make a probabilistic forecast for just about anything at any timescale. Sometimes the probabilities just aren't any different than climatology or chance. In this case, based on the present position and computer modelling of Irma, I think we can safely say the probability of a landfalling hurricane in the U.S. is higher than climatology for the 2nd week of September. I'd peg the %s something like this based on the GFS and Euro ensembles 50% FL to NC 10% VA to ME 25% OTS 15% south of FL/shredded Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: It's a probabilistic forecast. You can make a probabilistic forecast for just about anything at any timescale. Sometimes the probabilities just aren't any different than climatology or chance. In this case, based on the present position and computer modelling of Irma, I think we can safely say the probability of a landfalling hurricane in the U.S. is higher than climatology for the 2nd week of September. I'd peg the %s something like this based on the GFS and Euro ensembles 55% FL to NC 10% VA to ME 20% OTS 15% south of FL Wow you have south of FL higher than VA to ME- I would have south of FL as the lowest. Partly due to the fact that the actual track of the storm seems to be a bit north of what it was forecasted to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Recon should be there within an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Recon should be there within an hour or so.Aircraft Position: 14.97°N 54.00°WBearing: 63° at 261 ktAltitude: 6142 gpmPeak 10-second Wind: 22 kt at 25°Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 A number of those EPS tracks going just west/over/just east of Florida would be a challenge for local officials... you wouldn't even know which side of the coast to evacuate let alone what sections. The saving grace here is time and hopefully we can narrow things down pretty soon to eliminate some of these Florida-parallel tracks and just in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It will be tough to avoid a landfall on some portion of the US coastline if the ridge to the north rebounds as quickly after the trough as the EPS and GEFS have. EPS left....OP right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 As of this afternoon, my thinking is that East Coast landfall remains more likely than not (approximately a 60% probability). The Southeast (especially in an area running from Georgia to North Carolina) is probably much more likely to see landfall than an area running from Virginia to New England. However, I don't think the 12z ECMWF can be dismissed outright. Whether a deep low forms over eastern Canada could hold the key. Looking back to past storms, there's one potential close fit to what the ECMWF is showing: Hurricane #6 in 1866, which peaked as a Category 4 storm before recurving sharply away from the U.S. East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS are in excellent agreement through D5 with a track approaching the Bahamas. The consensus even at D7 is actually remarkably tight especially considering that this is around the time a possible turn could happen. And the ensembles (EPS and GEFS) are also highly supportive of a track into the Bahamas. Right now I'd say confidence is above average for a D5 forecast and about average for a D7 forecast. By the way, notice the subtle turn left (west) as Irma approaches the Bahamas on the 12Z UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The Wunderground historical maps support OTS (historically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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