Major Hurricane Irma

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Losing support for a northeast LF might be close to done with up here. But let's see what the hunters data does to models 

I'm not sure there is going to be much, if any, data that will be ingested into model runs tonight. It sounds like this will primarily be a radar investigation for intensity purposes. Once they start dropsondes they'll have data available to models.

[Derecho!]

51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Is Irma somewhat north of forecast right now?  

At the current state of organization the trochoidal wobbles might get pretty extreme. 

[Amped]

Euro is way further northeast with the Atlantic ridge than the gfs at 144

[TriPol]

I'm not buying what the EURO is selling. 24 hours ago it was OTS, now it's hitting the keys? That's a drastic shift.

[Hazey]

It's had no problem doing that the past few runs

Not gonna do it this go around.

[NJwx85]

Bahamas getting crushed, looks headed for FL

[Hazey]

It's so far south it's missing interaction with the trough.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

I'm not buying what the EURO is selling. 24 hours ago it was OTS, now it's hitting the keys? That's a drastic shift.

Euro is all over the place, whereas the GFS has been relatively more consistent. I'm sure whatever solution the euro reaches by D5 (before landfall or OTS) will be what is eventually realized though.

[TellicoWx]

The OTS was an outlier, some of 12z GEFS supports a LF in Florida. So a solution by the Euro there wouldn't be that drastic of an outcome

[nycsnow]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

The OTS was an outlier, some of 12z GEFS supports a LF in Florida. So a solution by the Euro there wouldn't be that drastic of an outcome

Euro been all over the place though 

[NJwx85]

Starts moving due North 156-168

[Z-Cast]

There's a lot of people making some stretch claims in here about Euro/GFS. Let's stick to PBP.

[bluewave]

Turning NNW at 156 near Andros Island, Bahamas.

[salbers]

IMERG animation here of past 7 days precip rate:

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4285

[RevWarReenactor]

Any further south and this will get taken apart by cuba/Hispaniola.

 

[andyhb]

[RU4Real]

168 - "Right turn, Clyde".

The 12Z Euro is slower to lift the high pressure over the Great Lakes.

[Hazey]

It's feeling the tug North at 168 but that is really close to a Florida hit.

[bdgwx]

The lowest pressure on the Euro through D7 is 922mb at hour 150.

[NJwx85]

The Euro will miss Florida this run, at least with the core.

[TriPol]

The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 had a pressure of 892 - which is still the single lowest pressure ever recorded in the lower 48. Not 100% sure how accurate measurements were in 1935, but it had to be close to that.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 minute ago, RU4Real said:

168 - "Right turn, Clyde".

The 12Z Euro is slower to lift the high pressure over the Great Lakes.

Not really slower. It's further south which causes it to take a hard turn around the ridge because the ridge is stronger along the track. 

[Hoosier]

New England trough really hasn't moved out yet at 168 hrs.

[Hazey]

The lowest pressure on the Euro through D7 is 922mb at hour 150.

Still a portent storm. A little more land interaction than the GFS. Might muzzle it a touch.

[SN_Lover]

3 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The lowest pressure on the Euro through D7 is 922mb at hour 150.

This is more reasonable than the sub 900 GFS. 

[bluewave]

Pounding the Bahamas through 174 with a 917 mb lowest pressure so far.

[Windspeed]

And there's the upper feature over the southern MS Valley at 192 (ECMWF) as also resolving on GFS.

[NJwx85]

Making a B-Line straight up the coast.

[Hazey]

Nice right hook...lol. I stand corrected. Might still head for the Carolinas.

[Derecho!]

18 minutes ago, Hazey said:

It's going to have to make a pretty abrupt north turn to avoid Florida.

Strong storms make plenty of abrupt turns.  Floyd did, despite protestations of Florida wishcasters that it couldn't possibly turn, it was "building its own ridge to the North" etc.