MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12z GFS subjects most of the Bahamas to TS conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 895 at 138.. 891 at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Down to 890 how low can she go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: 895 at 138 889mb at 144. it may be overdone but to see these sub 900 pressures so consistently is really concerning. almost like the 40-50"+ totals for harvey that we all thought were overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 looks like Florida will see TS form winds along the East Coast at least on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Now down to 880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 884 @ 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Down to 890 how low can she go? 884 hour 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 886 @ 156 just sitting in the bahamas.. jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Now down to 880 That is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Regarding the pressure progs, has there ever been a sub 900mb low in that part of the Atlantic? Certainly in the GOM and western Caribbean, but up there? Can anyone think what the lowest pressure in that part of the basin is? The signal for an anomalously intense hurricane is certainly unanimous, and the available heat and low shear supports the modeling, but they often overdo deepening. The GFS apparently has some issue with PWATs that feeds into it. Maybe adjust any GFS pressure up by 20-30mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Given the consistency of these low pressures, the environment around the Bahamas then must be just about perfect for explosive deepening. A Cat 5 moving nearby has to at least be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think Irma broke the GFS. At hour 162, there is no pressure reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: I think Irma broke the GFS. At hour 162, there is no pressure reading. 887, it happens sometimes on surface windspeed readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Since GFS upgrade it overly deepens hurricanes all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12z GFS also has *little* brother Jose moving into the islands. And I mean LITTLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Given the consistency of these low pressures, the environment around the Bahamas then must be just about perfect for explosive deepening. A Cat 5 moving nearby has to at least be on the table. At this point, I'm feeling fairly confident we see a Cat 5, or at least very close to it. Nearly every model I've looked at gets AOB 930mb, which makes sense because the environment is nearly perfect. Do I buy the sub 900mb pressures? No, I don't. It is pretty difficult to get sub 900mb storms and given that the only model that goes that deep is the GFS, which has been busting low on pressures for the past few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The media is going to go insane with this during the upcoming week if these low central pressures come about. A hurricane with winds gusting to 190 - 200+ MPH threatening Florida and the SE coast. Just imagine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Snowman99 said: Since GFS upgrade it overly deepens hurricanes all the time Hurricane models are showing extremely low pressures as well. This isn't just a small blip, but nothing is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 North turn midday Sunday. Subjects a good portion of the SE coast to TS conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wow the GFS really doesn't want to give up the sub 900mb bone. I thought as time got closer and with a little better resolution, the pressure would start to come back to a more realistic level. It clearly isn't happing, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think some if these consistently modeled insanely low pressures may be the guidance trying to convey that we are going to see this system grow very large, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: The media is going to go insane with this during the upcoming week if these low central pressures come about. A hurricane with winds gusting to 190 - 200+ MPH threatening Florida and the SE coast. Just imagine... I think the pressures could be 50Mb higher and the media will still be going insane very soon if nothing changes on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There's the energy over the deep south... Ridge moving overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 883 at 186 wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 good lord the surge alone would be devastating with this look as it treks northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 883 off the cost of jacksonville heading due north. Next weekend's media hype is going to be insane if this comes close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Lookin' Hugo-ey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The size of the hurricane-strength windfield on the 12Z GFS at hour 192 is astounding. Nearly the size of South Carolina it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Gonna bookmark this...NUTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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