stellarfun Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 NHC has bought into the Euro. See if the Euro holds serve next two runs. 31-OOZ western Cuba 00Z Sun Sept 10 30-12Z near Georgetown Bahamas 12Z Sat Sept 9 30-00z over Turks and Caicos 00z Sat Sept 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Irma ain't fooking around. It's all business now. I don't think I want to be in the way of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I foresee a big concern with the expanse of the wind fields. Several ERC's will allow IRMA to grow in diameter and let the hurricane winds really spread out over time. Not just a major hurricane but one with far reaching wind & surge impacts wherever it landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GFS slightly weaker and a hair south on the 12z. Cave to the Euro? well see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Plenty of high octane SST fuel along the path of Irma. Waters across the main development region of the Atlantic have warmed considerably since mid-August. Now trail only 2010 and 2005. #tropics pic.twitter.com/44ztLl5PF1 View photo · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Jrad08 said: I foresee a big concern with the expanse of the wind fields. Several ERC's will allow IRMA to grow in diameter and let the hurricane winds really spread out over time. Not just a major hurricane but one with far reaching wind & surge impacts wherever it landfalls. Landfall still isn't a guarantee, that's over a week away... unless you're talking about potential island impacts. Regardless, if Irma takes the kind of track indicated by the euro and rakes all the islands pretty much then enters the gulf, Irma could easily be the deadliest and one of the most costly hurricanes in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GFS gaining strength with another area of LP to it's East. Needs to be watched also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Still a good chance this storm interacts significantly with Hispaniola or Cuba which could reduce some impacts in the possibility of a US landfall. Again... still too far out to know for sure but plenty to watch over the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 GFS down to 929 by Tuesday morning... much stronger and further south than previous runs. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, jojo762 said: GFS down to 929 by Tuesday morning... much stronger and further south than previous runs. Yikes. Atlantic ridge locked and loaded on the big 3 models. This isn't going to be a fish storm. Interests in the East coast need to be advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Lol....Loop the progress across the Atlantic at fast speed. Irma acts drunk. Weaving back and forth like a nascar driver heating up the tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Atlantic ridge locked and loaded on the big 3 models. This isn't going to be a fish storm. Interests in the East coast need to be advised. Yeah... very concerning to see such a pattern holding serve on essentially all the models. Almost posted earlier about when sounding the alarms would be a good idea, we'll have to wait until we have a smaller area that is *likely* to be impacted to do that... but with how strong it appears this storm is going to be, it might be good to start sooner rather than later with preparations when areas to be impacted become clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Jesus.... 20mb lower than 06z at 150 and a tad SW. Also Irma also made a friend to its SE which is likely a Hurricane at 150. Irma destined for the East conus and its friend for the Caribbean like Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 923 at 180...from a global....wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Jesus.... 20mb lower than 06z at 150 and a tad SW. Also Irma also made a friend to its SE which is likely a Hurricane at 150. Irma destined for the East conus and its friend for the Caribbean like Harvey. We're about to have a "fun" and tiring next few weeks. Irma down to 910mb surface pressure at hr192... at this point, if it goes north of the islands it feels obvious that it's going to become a Cat-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Down to 905mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 923 at 180...from a global....wow! 905 at 198. Someone is getting walloped this run. Don't think it has time/opportunity to go away. may be wrong though. am weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Fish storm on GFS , possibly. Weakness in W ridge ,m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Now 898mb or 26.52 inHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 905 at 198. Someone is getting walloped this run. Don't think it has time/opportunity to go away. may be wrong though. am weenie Yeah I'm wrong. Heckuva fish storm. Not for Bermuda though, probably some high surf/winds/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, irishbri74 said: Fish storm on GFS You speak too soon Bermuda might get hit let the run finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Detoriating trough over EC and large blocking high to the north and east... fish storm, how?? There is no way this is a fish storm with that monster high to the north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Possible capture on the 12z. well see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: You speak too soon Bermuda might get hit let the run finish The closed low on on the 6z GFS that acted to tug her in that run went from being over MS valley to over jersey and weaker. Verbatim, a storm that strong will exploit any weakness in the ridge. I was strictly dissecting the 12z GFS. Compare the 12z vs the 6z 500mb maps you'll see. A burmuda storm essentially is a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Detoriating trough over EC and large blockingn high to the north and east... fish storm, how?? from our own Mid-Atlantic thread: 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, GFS is ALL over the place with trough. 12z run has an easy escape route between HP near the lakes and atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 This is multiple sub 900mb runs now for the GFS. It's not just a blip. The model actually believes will see a top 10 cane in the Atlantic. Even if slightly over done, that's a cat 5 for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The GFS has been overdoing TC intensity after the upgrade this summer, so be careful. It's too conservative on spinning developing them in the first place, but when it does -- it drastically overdoes it. A known issue at this point. Who knows how long it'll take to fix that. Lean towards the EC and HMON -- they've been doing better. Having said that, they both show a very strong cane still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: from our own Mid-Atlantic thread: Lets get 500mb straight before we focus on surface. i don't see a "escape" route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The same as arguing over track of a winter storm that is still 8-10 days away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.