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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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I foresee a big concern with the expanse of the wind fields. Several ERC's will allow IRMA to grow in diameter and let the hurricane winds really spread out over time. Not just a major hurricane but one with far reaching wind & surge impacts wherever it landfalls.

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1 minute ago, Jrad08 said:

I foresee a big concern with the expanse of the wind fields. Several ERC's will allow IRMA to grow in diameter and let the hurricane winds really spread out over time. Not just a major hurricane but one with far reaching wind & surge impacts wherever it landfalls.

Landfall still isn't a guarantee, that's over a week away... unless you're talking about potential island impacts. Regardless, if Irma takes the kind of track indicated by the euro and rakes all the islands pretty much then enters the gulf, Irma could easily be the deadliest and one of the most costly hurricanes in history.

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Just now, jojo762 said:

GFS down to 929 by Tuesday morning... much stronger and further south than previous runs. Yikes.

Atlantic ridge locked and loaded on the big 3 models. This isn't going to be a fish storm. 

 

Interests in the East coast need to be advised. 

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Just now, SN_Lover said:

Atlantic ridge locked and loaded on the big 3 models. This isn't going to be a fish storm. 

 

Interests in the East coast need to be advised. 

Yeah... very concerning to see such a pattern holding serve on essentially all the models. Almost posted earlier about when sounding the alarms would be a good idea, we'll have to wait until we have a smaller area that is *likely* to be impacted to do that... but with how strong it appears this storm is going to be, it might be good to start sooner rather than later with preparations when areas to be impacted become clearer. 

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8 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Jesus.... 20mb lower than 06z at 150 and a tad SW. 

 

Also Irma also made a friend to its SE which is likely a Hurricane at 150. Irma destined for the East conus and its friend for the Caribbean like Harvey. 

We're about to have a "fun" and tiring next few weeks. Irma down to 910mb surface pressure at hr192... at this point, if it goes north of the islands it feels obvious that it's going to become a Cat-5. 

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3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

You speak too soon Bermuda might get hit let the run finish

The closed low on on the 6z GFS that acted to tug her in that run went from being over MS valley to over jersey and weaker. 

 

Verbatim, a storm that strong will exploit any weakness in the ridge. I was strictly dissecting the 12z GFS. Compare the 12z  vs the 6z 500mb maps you'll see.

 

A burmuda storm essentially is a fish storm. 

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Detoriating trough over EC and large blockingn high to the north and east... fish storm, how??

from our own Mid-Atlantic thread:

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, GFS is ALL over the place with trough. 12z run has an easy escape route between HP near the lakes and atlantic. 

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The GFS has been overdoing TC intensity after the upgrade this summer, so be careful. It's too conservative on spinning developing them in the first place, but when it does -- it drastically overdoes it. A known issue at this point. Who knows how long it'll take to fix that.

Lean towards the EC and HMON -- they've been doing better.

 

Having said that, they both show a very strong cane still.

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