Major Hurricane Irma

[Sportybx]

06z has a land fall at 204 NC 

 

[phimuskapsi]

GFS is just mean.

[MJO812]

Good agreement from all the models on a SC/ NC hit.

Plenty of time though for changes

[phimuskapsi]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Good agreement from all the models on a SC/ NC hit.

Plenty of time though for changes

Well, EURO and GFS agree on that, but Navy and CMC think FL.

[lakeeffectkid383]

4 minutes ago, phimuskapsi said:

GFS is just mean.

The pressures modeled are nuts but the winds don't correspond. The pressure would be a beastly cat 5, the winds make it a high end 3/ low end 4... not that it still wouldn't be terrifying to have a strong3/low 4 LF there just thinking the low pressures are way overdone as others have mentioned.

[phimuskapsi]

GOES16 is incredible this morning:

http://col.st/uBMCy

(hit space to 'play' on landing)

[Yanksfan]

If the EURO and GFS were to be correct on a NC landfall per say, there remains one major disagreement with the two models. The EURO upon making landfall brings Irma north inside the coast, while the GFS goes NW or even WNW. That's a big difference for NYC/NJ effects from Irma.

[MJO812]

6Z gefs has 2 camps. One into Florida and one into the Carolinas

[packfan98]

looks like the 6z GEFS members are going to have the majority hitting NC like the op.  However, it looks like several are going to show hits to FL.

[MJO812]

Just now, packfan98 said:

looks like the 6z GEFS members are going to have the majority hitting NC like the op.  However, it looks like several are going to show hits to FL.

And possibly a few further up the coast

[bluewave]

This was the first set of model runs where the models favored something close to post 1995 climo. 5 out of the 6 hurricanes tracking near or north of Puerto Rico and continuing WNW made landfall along the East Coast. One of the hurricanes brushed the North Carolina coast but didn't landfall.

[phimuskapsi]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This was the first set of model runs where the models favored something close to post 1995 climo. 5 out of the 6 hurricanes tracking near or north of Puerto Rico and continuing WNW made landfall along the SE Coast. One of the hurricanes brushed the North Carolina coast but didn't landfall.

Ensemble shows that kind of middle-ground. Whiffs of Hugo.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

And possibly a few further up the coast

I think that'll be less likely given models have been slowing the speed of Irma, which allows the trough to lift out more. Florida to Carolinas is the most likely scenario atm. 

The cutoff scenario was the best chance to get her up here, the only other option is a slow Irene trek up the coast. 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, phimuskapsi said:

Ensemble shows that kind of middle-ground. Whiffs of Hugo.

 

 

The 6 hurricanes since 1995 that passed near or north of Puerto Rico and continued WNW were...Irene...2011...Earl...2010...Jeanne...2004...Frances...2004...Geroges...1998...Bertha 1996. So this may be the first set of model runs that is close to this active phase track climo. We'll see if this general theme holds in the coming days.

[phimuskapsi]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

 

The 6 hurricanes since 1995 that passed near or north of Puerto Rico and continued WNW were...Irene...2011...Earl...2010...Jeanne...2004...Frances...2004...Geroges...1998...Bertha 1996. So this may be the first set of model runs that is close to this active phase track climo.

 

Hugo has kind of a significance to me because I was on Foley Beach about a week before it hit with the family for a reunion. The house we stayed it was swallowed by the sea, and most of the beach. It's why it came to mind.

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, phimuskapsi said:

 

Hugo has kind of a significance to me because I was on Foley Beach about a week before it hit with the family for a reunion. The house we stayed it was swallowed by the sea, and most of the beach. It's why it came to mind.

 

Hugo was certainly one of the big ones in that area and took a track right over NE Puerto Rico. Some other famous ones fom the last active era that took a similar track were Donna in 1960, Connie in 1955, and Edna in 1954.

[MJO812]

Northea

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think that'll be less likely given models have been slowing the speed of Irma, which allows the trough to lift out more. Florida to Carolinas is the most likely scenario atm. 

The cutoff scenario was the best chance to get her up here, the only other option is a slow Irene trek up the coast. 

Agree

Euro would ride the coast

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yesterdays 12z Euro a blip run? 

[EasternLI]

1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

Anyone have the EPS spaghetti?

I have it on wxbell. Looks like greater spread post D7 than yesterday's. Long way to go with this.

[NJwx85]

The 06z HMOM gets Irma down to the 880's in about 4 1/2 days. The HWRF is more modest with low 930's.

[Morris]

Irma doesn't look its best on the last few satellite frames. Probably temporary weakening.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I have it on wxbell. Looks like greater spread post D7 than yesterday's. Long way to go with this.

Finally starting to see some convergence near NC on both the OP and EPS. We'll see how things go the next few days. Big banana high to the north on both also.

 

 

[allgame830]

Strictly regarding the 0z EURO what would be the effects up the coast in the NYC/NJ area? Not sure if I missed it... heard from some posters that it rides up the coast. Can someone please clarify? Thanks!

[RevWarReenactor]

37 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yesterdays 12z Euro a blip run? 

Well  at this point I'd say USA landfall probabilities have increased. If the storm is delayed and the ridge rebuilds, what is really left to kick this thing out? At the same time I think chances of this hitting the northeast have decreased.

But we still have time.

[MJO812]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Strictly regarding the 0z EURO what would be the effects up the coast in the NYC/NJ area? Not sure if I missed it... heard from some posters that it rides up the coast. Can someone please clarify? Thanks!

Rain and wind but nothing like the weather that they would see in the Carolinas if the models are correct right now.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hugo was certainly one of the big ones in that area and took a track right over NE Puerto Rico. Some other famous ones fom the last active era that took a similar track were Donna in 1960, Connie in 1955, and Edna in 1954.

Most of the hurricanes and tropical storms that hit the NE come through NC first (Gloria, Floyd, Bertha, Irene, etc.) all hit NC before coming up the coast.  They aren't Cat 3s when they get up here but they are still formidable storms.  As long as part of the circulation is over water and the storm is accelerating, weakening occurs more slowly than you'd think- they are usually still at least high end TS even with an inland track when they get here.

[RevWarReenactor]

With Isabel in 2003, it slammed into North Carolina and you'd have thought the storm was hitting the northeast. Massive Chesapeake Bay flooding, 50mph winds on the NJ coast.

Perhaps a different setup? I know there have been other times where a Hurricane can hit North Carolina and it is sunny in NJ.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Rain and wind but nothing like the weather that they would see in the Carolinas if the models are correct right now.

It would be like a 65mph TS with 5-6 inches of rain in the NE- nothing to complain about.  Compare to July 1996 Bertha, which made landfall as a Cat 2-3 near Wilmington and then was a 65 mph TS as it passed right over JFK.  There were hurricane force gusts in Suffolk County and 7" of rain with that one.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Most of the hurricanes and tropical storms that hit the NE come through NC first (Gloria, Floyd, Bertha, Irene, etc.) all hit NC before coming up the coast.  They aren't Cat 3s when they get up here but they are still formidable storms.  As long as part of the circulation is over water and the storm is accelerating, weakening occurs more slowly than you'd think- they are usually still at least high end TS even with an inland track when they get here.

Irene was able to maintain the very low pressures and significant storm surge on Long Island while passing over land due to the strong trough interaction. Gloria hit at low tide so the impact of the surge was less than it could have been. Floyd turned into an extreme rainmaker from NC to NJ. 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Irene was able to maintain the very low pressures and significant storm surge on Long Island while passing over land due to the strong trough interaction. Gloria hit at low tide so the impact of the surge was less than it could have been. Floyd turned into an extreme rainmaker from NC to NJ.

Yes, Floyd made landfall at Jones Beach on Long Island but as is typical with these systems, the highest rainfalls are to the west of the track and NJ and PA got hit rather hard.  It was still a 65 mph TS at our latitude but rainfall was the biggest issue.  Same with Bertha, which took a track from Wilmington to ACY to JFK.