LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The trough hasn't pulled out yet so Irma can move NNW, will head NNE next frame. Going to need to see that trough pull out next frame and the ridge to build back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NNW at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InstantWeatherMaps Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Still north and down to 920.2mb at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Still NNW at 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Ridge already building back in over top by 192, should plow right into NC unless the Euro decides to forgo meteorological processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Gonna make landfall near where the GFS does at 216 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, InstantWeatherMaps said: Still north and down to 920.2mb at 216 Yep would come in just east of Wilmington on this run. Disaster for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like it's going to be almost Identical landfall location as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NW at 210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS-ECMWF Temporary agreement on where land fall occurs I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Might even bend NW beyond 216, ridge strengthens to its NE and it interacts with cutoff to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 People need to think before posting. This thread went from Miami to OTS to NC in the space of 10 minutes. Learn how to read models. There's still the trough so you should know it will make that north turn unless that trough is totally gone in a given model run. Then you should know the ridge will build over it and keep the heading NNW into the U.S. coast. If you look at the 168 map you should have a good idea that it's heading somewhere near the Carolinas not Miami and not OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 222 making landfall in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: People need to think before posting. This thread went from Miami to OTS to NC in the space of 10 minutes. Learn how to read models. There's still the trough so you should know it will make that north turn unless that trough is totally gone in a given model run. Then you should know the ridge will build over it and keep the heading NNW into the U.S. coast. If you look at the 168 map you should have a good idea that it's heading somewhere near the Carolinas not Miami and not OTS. My pointing out of Florida was based upon the prospect of the trough lifting out potentially quicker, inferring what might have come on the next image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Morris said: 222 making landfall in NC Due north or NW movement? Wilmington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Check this out at the 850 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: People need to think before posting. This thread went from Miami to OTS to NC in the space of 10 minutes. Learn how to read models. There's still the trough so you should know it will make that north turn unless that trough is totally gone in a given model run. Then you should know the ridge will build over it and keep the heading NNW into the U.S. coast. If you look at the 168 map you should have a good idea that it's heading somewhere near the Carolinas not Miami and not OTS. It's more the idea of what if the pattern is just slightly different than modeled. I would still be plenty concerned if I were in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Due north or NW movement? Wilmington? Near Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I feel like we're always 9 days out from landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, skierinvermont said: People need to think before posting. This thread went from Miami to OTS to NC in the space of 10 minutes. Learn how to read models. There's still the trough so you should know it will make that north turn unless that trough is totally gone in a give model run. Then you should know the ridge will build over it and keep the heading NNW into the U.S. coast. If you look at the 168 map you should have a good idea that it's heading somewhere near the Carolinas not Miami and not OTS. The key is the trough. If it pulls out a bit faster and the ridging builds you get Florida, not to mention it S again from 12z. Any more S movement and it increasing the chance of Florida or even shooting the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: It's more the idea of what if the pattern is just slightly different than modeled. I would still be plenty concerned if I were in Florida. Bingo, no one said that this is 100% anything tonight but talked about prospects of what could happen if little adjustments happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I feel like we're always 9 days out from landfall additional south movement will do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Near Wilmington. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NAVGEM was a hit to central Florida, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So does this thing ride up the coast Irene style or go inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: So does this thing ride up the coast Irene style or go inland? On this run it does/would beyond 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Southern reaches of the Gulf Stream are certainly containing enough TCHP to maintain a higher-end hurricane on that track assuming all other things are favorable (and it's essentially rocket fuel further south into the Bahamas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5:00 pm update: ...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 47.5W ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 SC/NC border hit on the 06z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Anyone have the EPS spaghetti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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