yoda Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 216 looks... fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 DT will approve of this run and actually makes much more sense, curious to see where it goes after landfall to see if the mid-atlantic/northeast get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 216 looks... funDetails!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2017090300&fh=186&xpos=190&ypos=66 poleward exhaust in a right entrance region of the jet. Probably why it's showing the strengthening, albeit, / bit overdone (hopefully)Yeah that's why it's getting a kick in rump as far as strengthening goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS hits NC while CMC hits Florida LOL This isn't set in stone just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Chaos at VA Tech. This would also deleaf a lot of trees up through the Shenandoah, so much for fall viewing. Good thing this run won't happen as displayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Details! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Hurricane over Roanoke, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Looks like it's haulin' off to Chicago after landfall. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GFS hits NC while CMC hits Florida LOL This isn't set in stone just yet The point is that most model runs are duking it out where it will landfall, not whether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: The point is that most model runs are duking it out where it will landfall, not whether. This...I think an US East Coast landfall is now becoming much more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The remnants are practically heading for the mid west. That's one heck of a block. Almost too bizarre to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 UKMET (Remember this is a vastly more useful model than the Canadian, but doesn't output to 10 days, only 6) looks much further S than previous runs. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 And the CMC hits MIA's MSA. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I wouldn't trust anything the cmc shows. Pretty bad model overall. Really bad at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 If anyone receives Larry Cosgroves (Weather America) weekly newsletter he has a pretty good write up on Irma in the "medium range" section. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I posted this in my forum. I thought I would put it here as well so more people can pick it apart. This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense. Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most. Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast. However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Through North Carolina at least this has Fran written all over it only worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, jburns said: I posted this in my forum. I thought I would put it here as well so more people can pick it apart. This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense. Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most. Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast. However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd. This could actually spare places like Philly/NYC if Irma makes landfall in SC/NC and keeps heading NNW/NW, but with such a large storm there is potential to see stormy conditions in the areas I mentioned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The overall pattern is what I'd pay more attention to at this stage than a specific track. If there's a sharp West Atlantic ridge that develops, it does make a US strike more likely. Where it happens could be FL or up here. Still a few days to figure that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 How are the GEFS ensemble members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: How are the GEFS ensemble members? Not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: How are the GEFS ensemble members? Still widespread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 51 minutes ago, Morris said: The point is that most model runs are duking it out where it will landfall, not whether. The thing that makes landfall more of a possibility than it would normally be is the fact that there are a few different ways for landfall to occur. This isn't your typical thread-the-needle scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 One of the best met's in CLT... Eric Thomas WBTVVerified account @EricThomasWBTV 17m17 minutes ago Latest GFS run! Latest ECMWF keeps #Irma off shore. Use this to start thinking about your hurricane safety plans. GFS recently upgraded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 These intensity models are crazy to look at. Only out to 144 on most also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamSE-Wx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Also FWIW I think the last Euro run was an outlier of a run. Every other model too consistent brining it to shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 One thing that does look likely is that the environment looks conducive for several days for strengthening. This might hit strong Cat 4 or 5 at some point when it's close to the Bahamas or Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: One of the best met's in CLT... Eric Thomas WBTVVerified account @EricThomasWBTV 17m17 minutes ago Latest GFS run! Latest ECMWF keeps #Irma off shore. Use this to start thinking about your hurricane safety plans. GFS recently upgraded. When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure. ECMWF just initialized on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 When he refers to the ECMWF I wonder if he means 0z or last afternoons 12z. I do know the euro is released past this hour and I'm also aware it is available earlier at the site. I'm assuming he is pointing to the latest run but I am not sure.He has not seen the overnight euro run yet. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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