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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks?

It's pretty atypical, but something like it can occur.  Normally they start recurving and don't just keep chugging northwest for so long after landfall, but there was the 1898 hurricane that was mentioned as an example.  Another thing that is pretty wild is some of those GEFS members having pressures in the 980s all the way through the Ohio Valley.  That may be overdone but even the EPS members that track it there are in the 990s.  Hugo's pressure was in the 980s in Ohio so it is not out of the question.

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Big trend SW today on the HWRF as well....18Z now hits the Anguilla and Saint Martin head on and gives PR at least TS conditions on the north side....upside Josh can go to Anguilla and get cored.

06Z run this morning was so far north PR was even in the image

HW2.thumb.png.a5bed195e77b821c700cbc74627129c2.png

 

18Z run from tonight

HW1.thumb.png.8424b6d04cd505671209b5a2e652866f.png

RIP Saint Martin and Anguilla

HW3.thumb.png.0e64d86e0a66eb2c244718d2172c92d9.png

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At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall:

1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia

2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut

3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina

 

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At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall:

1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia

2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut

3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina

 

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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall:

1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia

2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut

3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina

 

What about Hurricane Hugo?  That was a cat 4 that went straight into South Carolina back in 1989?

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Storm seems to be undergoing yet another ERC, meanwhile a burst of heavy convection on the east side which started a few hours ago seems to be attempting to mix in and grow the CDO.  And another burst of convection on the south side.  It has a pretty messy presentation right now.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Hugo didn't pass within 100 nautical miles of Irma's 5 pm position. Landfall within the vicinity of where Hugo made landfall is very much a possibility, though.

Gotcha, the models have this storm tracking like Isabel but on steroids.  In the end, when these storms turn north they lose a lot of their strength.  Isabel was 70-75 MPH Gusts here.  Irene was 60-65 MPH gusts.  Irma is going to be interesting.

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4 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Gotcha, the models have this storm tracking like Isabel but on steroids.  In the end, when these storms turn north they lose a lot of their strength.  Isabel was 70-75 MPH Gusts here.  Irene was 60-65 MPH gusts.  Irma is going to be interesting.

It will definitely be interesting. Some of the guidance is extraordinary. 

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At 5 pm, Irma was centered at 18.5°N 44.6°W. Since 1851, 13 hurricanes passed within 100 nautical miles of that location. Three made U.S. landfall:

1. The "Sea Islands" Hurricane of 1893 (Category 3) in Georgia

2. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (Category 3) in New York (Long Island) and then 2nd landfall in Connecticut

3. Isabel in 2003 (Category 2) in North Carolina

 


I love these types of statistics Don. Keep up the good work!


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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but out-to-sea is far from assured. Good luck riding it out should it make landfall near your area.

It could also turn extratropical such as Irene up in the mid-latitudes and still pack one heck of a punch with an expanded wind field. Like you said  an interesting one to track thru it's travels. 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There's still a good deal of uncertainty, but out-to-sea is far from assured. Good luck riding it out should it make landfall near your area.

Thanks, you're welcome to come by.  109 Wilson Lane, Hampton, VA.   Irene never came above the seawall. It was only 6.5ft.

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