ROOSTA Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Of note the NHC has a track and cone further W and S with each update. From my location I would prefer and stronger trough weaker ridge and then go fish! Sorry, I know people want this to track through their hood but in reality not really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: With the GEFS mean by Charleston, I wonder what the possibilities are of a Georgia Landfall. Possible, although climotologically low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: With the GEFS mean by Charleston, I wonder what the possibilities are of a Georgia Landfall. The combination of the forecast pattern, GFS ensembles, and earlier ECMWF runs has me increasingly concerned about a landfall bounded by the 1893 "Sea Islands" hurricane on the south and something a little north of Isabel on the north. Georgia hasn't had a major hurricane landfall since 1898, so many may be ill-prepared should Irma head that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 14 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Can you post? I believe the 12z did too. Will be interesting to see if the Euro moves towards the GFS or vice versa at 00z. GFS has held serv for a couple runs in a row while the Euro is all over the place however I think it's still so early that neither models will be correct as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Wow! Scary right there! A few of those tracks through the Carolinas or Virginias, crawling through the mountains, flooding would be horrific , on top of the obvious wind damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18z HMON brings Irma down to 880mb towards the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said: Calling for OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: 18z HMON brings Irma down to 880mb towards the end of its run. Yes, HWRF takes it down to the 920's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yes, HWRF takes it down to the 920's HMON likely overdone but MAX wind speeds for both are really close. ~129kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So there aren't any 10 day official consensus models, but I'd strongly suspect that simply averaging the GEFS mean and the EC Mean would be by far the most accurate forecast, verbatim (without trying to manually diagnose which model is "correct" - computers are better at TC track forecasting than humans). So right now that would be Morehead City North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Calling for OTS? I believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? The ull to the west? We saw these insane left hooks on the models into the mid atlantic with sandy. Not saying its the same setup but the models will most likely waffle with the hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: The ull to the west? We saw these insane left hooks on the models into the mid atlantic with sandy. Not saying its the same setup but the models will most likely waffle with the hook. The left hook with Sandy was due to a high latitude blocking high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 in other words, when Irma gets to the central Bahamas, that's when we should know which way she turns as that seems to be the common inflection point. but yea, that 878 that's I think record territory for the Atlantic Basin and I do not think Irma heads there. 910-920, I agree I think we would see that, given what we're seeing so far. But that jet pattern, having momma nature bowl right-handed instead of normally left-handed again and put it into an almost Hazle-like position? i'm not sure how much I believe it, despite Sandy a couple of years ago. Those type of interactions just do not usually like to happen often. It almost feels like it should be more heading to Long Island and New England, not up the Chesapeake and flooding Delaware Bay as well as Philly from the surge. Exactly. My cone would be OC MD to E LI Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The ull to the west? We saw these insane left hooks on the models into the mid atlantic with sandy. Not saying its the same setup but the models will most likely waffle with the hook. That's insane though....I dont ever recall a map where so many tracks continued on to the WNW and into the Plains states like that. Of course there is your climo cluster that recurves and I'm not saying the 'hook' cant or wont happen, but this look is just odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS also has 874mb near 29N 73W. I know GFS has been overdoing pressures, but still, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 SST's are like jet fuel for Irma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think the most likely scenario is still LF near Wilmington NC and then up the coast near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I don't buy that sharp turn West from going North. Likely going to be LF higher around NJ.Nor do I. For that to happen, it would have to be a full capture and/or redevelop. A storm of that size and strength may be tugged west, but I don't see a full capture, especially this quickly. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Sandy was about a 14ft storm surge, and it largely spared my neighborhood in Battery Park City (it flooded everything around it though). But just barely - anything greater than that and it reaches the level of most of the neighborhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm a little surprised that none of those GEFS members are OTS. Even that member off the coast looks like it might clip Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 47 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: That'd be new for my area, eastern TN. Wildfires, floods, derecho, severe drought and then hurricane remnants. Lots can happen in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Nor do I. For that to happen, it would have to be a full capture and/or redevelop. A storm of that size and strength may be tugged west, but I don't see a full capture, especially this quickly. Looks like the GFS has the west hook due to a 300mb low pinching off to Irma's west and the 500mb ridge building to the north as the main 500mb trough lifts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, salbers said: Looks like the GFS has the west hook due to a 300mb low pinching off to Irma's west and the 500mb ridge building to the north as the main 500mb trough lifts out. Don't usual major hurricanes that landfall on the East correlate with a full moon? Our moon will be full this Weds, so I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? Well since the storm was recently mentioned, the last big one to hit GA in 1898 tracked all the way to NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hopefully once the energy responsible for the trough comes onshore tonight and we get better sampling the globals will begin to handle this feature more consistently. While we're still in fantasy range, about 7 days out is when we cross that threshold and we're close to doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Does nobody else think this map is a little...."off"? Since when do TC's or remnants of them continue tracking NW all the way into the Plains? I've never seen anything like it. It's like the tropical Easterlies moved North to between 30N and 40N lol. Seriously though, is there an upper level mechanism on the GEFS so extreme to be causing these absurd tracks? The last major hurricane to make Georgia landfall (Hurricane #7 in 1898) plowed into the Midwest. That storm made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/TC/NA/tracks/1898.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.