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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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51 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Latest experts weigh in--Harvey with a $190 billion price tag. Cost of Katrina and Sandy combined...

Irma will be critical to watch for this reason alone.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-hurricane-harvey-to-be-the-most-costly-natural-disaster-in-us-history/70002597

Hopefully, the damage won't be as extensive. But I continue to worry that this will be either the most damaging or second most damaging storm on record.

The single insurance company that called Harvey 'much less' damaging than Katrina and Sandy was an outlier. Even relying strictly on the modeled QPF, the prediction appeared outlandish with a Top 3 storm appearing much more likely. My guess is that the company was "front running" for headlines as its idea would largely have been based on the combination of insurable property values and huge damage-related assumptions. Making such premature predictions can be perilous, but the temptation to do so often overwhelms sounder judgment. In the case of Harvey, the prediction was made shortly after it had made landfall near Rockport and before much of its historic rains had fallen. 

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8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

This is new information that supersedes the satellite information I had just posted. It suggests a 987 mb 75-knot hurricane.

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Just now, RU4Real said:

What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic?

I think these are the low-res members since I know I can't post the actual ones. 

Regardless, with SW flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere, it would seem that a stronger and deeper vortex like Irma would begin to feel the ridge quicker and head more WSW over time. 

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1 minute ago, RU4Real said:

What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic?

Use ensembles for track, not intensity. I mean you wouldn't want them showing a weak system, but they lack the resolution to show correct intensities.

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FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 16.9N  33.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.5N  35.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.0N  37.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.2N  39.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 18.1N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 17.0N  46.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 16.0N  55.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 311451
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.
Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,
which is now displaying a small and clearing eye.  Dvorak estimates
were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues
to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to
85 kt.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday.  Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening.  Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then.  In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance.  This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  This
motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds
over the central Atlantic Ocean.  This ridge should force Irma to
turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next
week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
the ECMWF model starting yesterday.  Given the strength of the ridge
and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
ensemble models.
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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/1500Z 16.9N  33.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 17.5N  35.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 18.0N  37.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 18.2N  39.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 18.1N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 17.0N  46.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 16.0N  55.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

Honestly these seem conservative to me, NWP aside, this thing has really organized in a HURRY. And nothing is really going to slow it down much from what I can tell. Maybe some dry air later on, but that won't effect a well organized major hurricane all that much.

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I wonder how long the southward trend continues? Given the apparent strength of the Atlantic ridge and Irma's tendency to already be verifying south of guidance what are the chances it stays south into the Caribbean? One more nudge south by the Euro and it would basically stay south of most or all of the islands. Then the question becomes how much influence does the eastern trough have in the day 7-10 range? Lots to still be sorted out. 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Scary that it's a cat 2 now and has a lot of open water to work with.

The 11am advisory noted that Irma will encounter some weak shear/dry air and some slightly cooler water over the next day to hold off on major RI.  As we saw with Harvey though, there appears to be almost 2 classes of RI (TS - > Hurr, Hurr -> M. Hurr). Still, with the eye appearing to clear out now on satellite I wonder if this gets a nudge to cat 3 status tonight.

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 11am advisory noted that Irma will encounter some weak shear/dry air and some slightly cooler water over the next day to hold off on major RI.  As we saw with Harvey though, there appears to be almost 2 classes of RI (TS - > Hurr, Hurr -> M. Hurr). Still, with the eye appearing to clear out now on satellite I wonder if this gets a nudge to cat 3 status tonight.

We're not talking substantially drier air, or substantially cooler waters, especially given that Irma has been on the far Southern end of the track consensus. It's also going to make much less of a difference if Irma is already a major hurricane.

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