donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wow said: 12Z GEFS by 228 hrs have a cluster of members over the SE, and another off the NE/MA coast. The SE really needs to pay attention to this storm. Areas farther north also need to watch things. Much of this region has no recent experience with a landfalling major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Foulkey said: Question: it's been a fairly cool summer in New England. Are we assuming the cooler ocean water will knock Irma down quite a bit before any potential NYC landfall? Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Most likely if that happened. The 80 degree temps typically cut off near or just south of the NC/VA border so weakening almost always occurs north of that latitude. If you have an interaction with an upper low however sometimes you end up with the whole spread out wind field deal and a transition to what Sandy or the 38 storm may have been so you have a bigger area of strong winds and surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The SE really needs to pay attention to this storm. Areas farther north also need to watch things. Much of this region has no recent experience with a landfalling major hurricane. Indeed. You can see quite an array of possibilities here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I want to see the EPS mean evolves since the GEFS post upgrade had had too strong a ridge in the East and too weak in the West. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/fcst_eval/html/zwk2_bias.html The EPS (and GFES) has been all over the last 3 runs it seems. I'm not sure until we see 3 consecutive runs where it's about the same if we can be confident we are coming close to any solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 HWRF and HMON dropping Irma into the upper 920s/lower 930s at the end of the run. Similar to the Euro. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z spaghettios bring it towards Mid Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wow said: Indeed. You can see quite an array of possibilities here. looks as if the spread has actually increased vs the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 ADT estimates are back up to just under 100kts. That's quite an increase from earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Most likely if that happened. The 80 degree temps typically cut off near or just south of the NC/VA border so weakening almost always occurs north of that latitude. If you have an interaction with an upper low however sometimes you end up with the whole spread out wind field deal and a transition to what Sandy or the 38 storm may have been so you have a bigger area of strong winds and surge Regarding sst's north of the VA Capes sir, if this thing started to kick it up a notch per say in forward speed would it still feel the effects of the ocean temps or if it were moving fast enough would it be a scenario where it would be predominantly undistrubed in the center of circulation? Basically could we still have a 940mb cane down near the outer banks be as ferocious as it approached the Delmarva for example? I'm just interested in what forward speed can do to help a hurricane in the case of cooler sst's? Thanks for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 No change on the Euro track through 54hrs. As you can see the positioning and timing is nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 intensity graph of 12z ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 78hrs the Euro is just a hair further SW than the previous run. It's going to be a very close call for the Northernmost islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Regarding sst's north of the VA Capes sir, if this thing started to kick it up a notch per say in forward speed would it still feel the effects of the ocean temps or if it were moving fast enough would it be a scenario where it would be predominantly undistrubed in the center of circulation? Basically could we still have a 940mb cane down near the outer banks be as ferocious as it approached the Delmarva for example? I'm just interested in what forward speed can do to help a hurricane in the case of cooler sst's? Thanks for your time. It will weaken however, the speed with which it does so depends on several factors: 1) The size of the storm. The bigger and stronger the vortex, the more inertial stability it has and the longer it takes to spin down. 2) Forward speed. Faster speed gives it less time to weaken and adds the movement component to the wind speed on the right flank, keeping winds up on those quadrants. 3) Baroclinic/jet enhancement, if any. Some baroclinic (frontal) and/or jet enhancement via divergence aloft and/or enhancement of outflow can slow the weakening process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Hard to tell exactly, but St Johns, Antigua, St Kitts, and both the British and US Virgin Islands look to take the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 51 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You can't use the climo argument under such an anamalous pattern otherwise storms like Sandy should have gone OTS. Bulllcrap....we are still 9 days out....climo is still heavily weighted at these leads....the anomalous pattern is "modeled"...at 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 The Northeastern corner of PR probably gets close to the core this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 You always have to be a bit concerned on a WSW moving system that the models may underestimate how much of a south component occurs or how long it occurs for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Also of note, I'm not sure why NHC thinks shear could become an issue. Both the GFS and Euro have similar UL patterns showing little to no wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If PR is close to a hit thats quite a bit south of the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Also of note, I'm not sure why NHC thinks shear could become an issue. Both the GFS and Euro have similar UL patterns showing little to no wind shear. The SHIPS model I think this morning showed significant shear increase from 72-96. I think OSUMet posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still by day 5 Irma ends up in a very similar position, near the Turks and Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Biggest difference between GFS and Euro at 120hr is the strength of the ridge which keeps Irma further south on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The SHIPS model I think this morning showed significant shear increase from 72-96. I think OSUMet posted that. Yeah. 12z has 15 to 20 knots in the 72 to 120 hr range. Ships is using gfs shear on nhc forecast points afaik. Its not a ton of shear by any means but it could keep the system somewhat in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Placement differences between GFS and ECMWF become more noticeable by 120 hours. Euro is about to plow into the Bahamas while the GFS, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 The Euro closes off an ULL now over SE Canada, not sure if 00z did this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Deeper trough at 144 compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Bulllcrap....we are still 9 days out....climo is still heavily weighted at these leads....the anomalous pattern is "modeled"...at 9 days out. The pattern is anomalous now, what normal major hurricane turns WSW in the middle of the Atlantic. Climo says Irma should be going NW right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: You always have to be a bit concerned on a WSW moving system that the models may underestimate how much of a south component occurs or how long it occurs for Very true. Also the Islanders look at 15/55 as a benchmark location that somewhere in the Islands will be impacted. NHC track has her down to 17N. Don't want to see her track much lower than that for the Islands sake. "15/55 better find a place to crawl into and hide" was something some folks told me at a little bar in St. Thomas lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The pattern is anomalous now, what normal major hurricane turns WSW in the middle of the Atlantic. Climo says Irma should be going NW right now. It would if the ridge wasn't as strong as modeled on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 162 is about 60 mi NE of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.