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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Look how that ULL over the Ohio Valley turns over, it really is eerily close to Sandy. Landfall is just over DE/MD rather than SNJ.

59aadc89b7037.png

some of the earlier Euro runs prior to Sandy had a landfall in this location (they had landfalls from DelMarVa up to about Long Island)

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A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions.

This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east.

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11 hours ago, Subtropics said:

It's 1am and it was in the 60s air temp today. That's not representative at all. Look at August's day time temps. We hit nearly 85 10 days ago, which is crazy. Almost the whole month above 75 during the day. That didn't used to happen.

If anything, the fact it is still above average after a day this chilly and it being after midnight is not a good sign.

lol

you don't understand any of this

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Looks like the rain shield would be a bit compact, especially to the East of the center, but Tropical storm force winds would be felt as far Northeast as Cape Cod. It's just one run with many more to come. But if the pattern plays out similar to this, I really don't see how it could possibly go OTS.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions.

This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east.

I really don't think it was as close as you say at all. The ridge rebuilds overhead and the trough eventually captures it.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions.

This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east.

Not sure if I'd say close to being swept ots. Close to heading NNE in eastern New England versus captured, I agree with more based on that run. 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Looks like the rain shield would be a bit compact, especially to the East of the center, but Tropical storm force winds would be felt as far Northeast as Cape Cod. It's just one run with many more to come. But if the pattern plays out similar to this, I really don't see how it could possibly go OTS.

Don't buy that part. There will be a leftover/stalled front from that filling trough in that scenario. Potential for a PRE there depending on where that front is.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A real thread the needle run. The WAR is initially stronger, forcing a more southerly track. Weaker after 120, making steering currents weaker and slowing the cyclone down just in time to miss being swept out. It literally misses being swept out to sea by 6-12 hours as the trough rapidly fills due to having mass dumped into it by two big jet maxes in unfavorable positions.

This is basically the Euro OP scenario, just a bit further east.

Yeah, what it says is to be very cautious about this setup even though we happened to get landfall in a somewhat similar location on this run.

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1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Don't buy that part. There will be a leftover/stalled front from that filling trough in that scenario. Potential for a PRE there depending on where that front is.

Yeah and as the trough lifts out it's going to suck Irma up the coast. That's why this is a Mid-Atlantic hit and not a Carolina hit like the Euro shows.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Yeah, what it says is to be very cautious about this setup even though we happened to get landfall in a somewhat similar location on this run.

I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. 

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10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Some prettt big changes aloft between 6z and 12z

 

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_33.png

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_32 (1).png

And yet it still makes landfall, which is not good if you're hoping for an OTS track. The pattern is becoming increasingly supportive of an East coast landfall.

How long that weakness remains and Irma's speed may determine landfall location rather than whether or not it'll make landfall.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. 

The euro only fails to achieve this solution because of a southerly short term movement. It is a scary prospect, the next 72 hours are critical. It seems more obvious that someone will be impacted by this in the conus, directly. If it comes in that strong, you can be sure the ridge will react accordingly.

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At any rate, this shows how shaky that trough evolution is atm. The only thing we're getting some agreement on is the ridge flattening scenario over the northern CONUS/Canada, something the GFS seems to have picked up on first, surprisingly. How exactly that pans out is another question (and an important one).

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14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I agree that landfall location was fragile, but it can not possibly escape East unless things dramatically change. For example if the trough was slower to lift out. But it looked to me that this run trended exactly opposite. 

But to me, that option is still very much on the table at this point. Models are not reliable at this range and I think we need to be cautious.

By 0z tonight GFS could easily be showing a fish and it could be game over. Seen it MANY times. Not saying it will or that we should become complacent, but people have a tendency to take long range models as gospel and then get burned bad, over and over again. I think Tuesday and Wed is a good time to get serious about specifics.

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16 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Major difference is that Canadian has a landfall and not a OTS solution as 0z! Lets see if we can go 3 for 3 after the Euro comes out! 

There is no situation where the Canadian matters or is a "major difference."  It's not a useful tropical model. There is a reason the Canadian is not included as a member of any of the consensus models which are the most accurate ones in existence. 

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Why is it that you could have all things pointing towards a US landfall, and people still try to pick it apart and find reasons for it not to happen?

While anything is possible at thing range, this is all about pattern recognition. Does the setup at H5 support the solution? Yes it does.


Nothing wrong with being cautious at this stage.
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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Why is it that you could have all things pointing towards a US landfall, and people still try to pick it apart and find reasons for it not to happen?

While anything is possible at thing range, this is all about pattern recognition. Does the setup at H5 support the solution? Yes it does.

The setup supports it at this time, but come tomorrow it could easily be totally different. It has happened time and time again with long range models. They are VERY unreliable.

Right now this needs to be monitored closely for the potential. Specifics and certainties are for entertainment only.

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