tim123 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I said earlier euro coming around to gfs type solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Very similar speed so far, just a bit South of the 00z run. You can see the trend here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 She needs to hurry up and catch the phase train! Hurry Irma! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks to me like it will end up Northeast of the Euro run. The steering flow near the Bahamas is still towards the Northeast as Irma approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Defiintely further south vs. the 06z and 00z runs at T+132 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z GFS might put my area in the crosshairs, will definitely need to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS. If the ULL weakens in the Atlantic, OTS odds increase. I personally think it's 60-40 for a CONUS landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 I think the key here is that the trough is lifting out, so it doesn't make sense to me that it would recurve OTS with a hard right. This allows the ridge to rebuild overhead as the next trough builds into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS looks more transient with the eastern US ULL/trough...looks like the WAR won't be as large so might see a curve here we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: If the ULL weakens in the Atlantic, OTS odds increase. I personally think it's 60-40 for a CONUS landfall. Honestly, what are you even talking about...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Jet maxes cresting over downstream ridge and upstream jet max is cruising well north. Trough rapidly filling on approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Honestly, what are you even talking about...? Check out the ULL to Irma's NE. That's what's forcing a CONUS landfall from the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 I really wish that those giving premature calls and guessing would give it a rest. Look at the steering currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: Check out the ULL to Irma's NE. That's what's forcing a CONUS landfall from the ridge. No it's not, please stop. The strong sub-tropical ridge is responsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It trended towards the euro, troff lifting out more this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Annd GFS goes down to 893 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: No it's not, please stop. The strong sub-tropical ridge is responsible. Your not understanding that the SW to the east is nudging the ridge west. IF you can see it, then I can't help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 The trough is pulling out, if it was deepening I might change my mind, but the ridge is rebuilding overhead. Again the stirring flow is Southeasterly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, MattPetrulli said: Annd GFS goes down to 893 MB There is a model over doing it and a model likely really over doing it, this is obviously the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Your not understanding that the SW to the east is nudging the ridge west. IF you can see it, then I can't help you. The only two things that matter here are the strength of the ridge and the timing and amplitude of the trough lifting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: By about 18z Saturday the trough is starting to lift out, and Irma is still quite a ways away, so I don't see how it could possibly get recurved OTS. And how does the Euro model the trough? Does it also lift it out ... and at the same point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Look how the trough moving out is helping to suck this right towards the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The only two things that matter here are the strength of the ridge and the timing and amplitude of the trough lifting out. If those are that matter to you, then fine. Not worth my time arguing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 And now we have capture, checkmate. Should ride WNW right into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 If you don't believe me, look how that ridge builds to the North of the cyclone. This is a textbook East coast landfall, if one exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Landfall should be very close to the same spot as 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 yeah big mid atl hit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Look how that ULL over the Ohio Valley turns over, it really is eerily close to Sandy. Landfall is just over DE/MD rather than SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Canadian makes landfall in NC. Mid-950s or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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