Major Hurricane Irma

[Mountain_Patch]

Just now, BlunderStorm said:

I am quite fascinated by Hurricane Hugo considering it went directly over the Blue Ridge mountains maintaining tropical storm status charging through Appalachia. In fact the low went directly over my hometown as my parents re-call.

I was in the hospital as the tornadoes touched down all through Winston-Salem. 

[ncskywarn]

3 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

I am quite fascinated by Hurricane Hugo considering it went directly over the Blue Ridge mountains maintaining tropical storm status charging through Appalachia. In fact the low went directly over my hometown as my parents re-call.

I lived through Fran when the center came over Western Wake County and actually lost a car to a tree that was not pretty.

[Rjay]

 

[Hoosier]

Assuming that landfall threatens, the shape of the coast and potential angle of approach is not very helpful for planning purposes. Whether it's FL/GA or farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, tiny changes in a NNW motion could literally send the landfall location dozens of miles from where you expect.  

[BlunderStorm]

I take the following view on hurricanes, if a hurricane is approaching the eastern sea board or really anywhere honestly, I am of course fully aware of the disaster that follows, I am merely impressed by the force of nature. Admittedly there will always be a disconnect between those who reside near the coast and those well inland shielded from most violent weather events as I am. I along with the majority of others look at hurricanes with a sense of dreadful anticipation. When a hurricane lands it of course loses it's intensity and at that point, I hope the system comes over me just as with any weather event. Of course I do re-call the 2011 Super Outbreak as being one of the few weather events that actually made me fear for my life and significant damage occurred from hail with a few tornadoes in the region. I hate to open the moral conundrum this creates. I hope a hurricane goes out to sea if at all possible but if fate has ordained it make landfall and it has hit than so be it let it come over me. Does it make me a bad person? I mean when thinking of the losses caused due to the event that I could not control I cannot help but feel guilty when it does come over. Today for example the remnants of Harvey swept through my area giving some rather pleasant wind gusts with some refreshing rainfall. I do sincerely apologize if I have angered you.

[goldman75]

Who do you guys think is more accurate on the time so far.  Consensus here seems to say euro for most things.  Euro seems to be slower with the storm, as of now looking like landfall Monday night. Other models had it there around early Sunday morning.  Is Monday afternoon-night looking more realistic for the moment vs late sat early sun?

[Rjay]

EPS gif I made. Days 9-13

[andyhb]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

EPS gif I made. Days 9-13

Still a ton of members OTS.

[Rjay]

110mph/970mb

 

"Irma appears to have weakened a little during the last several
hours.  The eye has become cloud filled once again, and the
convective pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday.  A
blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and
ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support
lowering the initial wind speed a little to 95 kt.  It is
interesting to note that a ship (BATFR17) passed within 50 n mi to
the west of the center of Irma and has only reported winds of
about 40 kt, indicating that the core of Irma is compact.

The observed fluctuations in strength during the past day or so are
likely to continue for about another day while Irma remains over
marginally warm waters and in fairly close proximity to dry air.
Eyewall replacement cycles, like the one observed yesterday,
could occur, but forecasting the timing and duration of these are
not possible.  After 24 hours, Irma is expected to move over
progressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment.
These more favorable conditions combined with low to moderate wind
shear should allow the hurricane to strengthen.  The NHC intensity
forecast follows the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN, and it is fairly
similar to the previous advisory.

Irma is now moving due west at 12 kt.  A subtropical high pressure
system to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen and
build westward during the next couple of days.  This pattern should
cause Irma to move west-southwestward during that time.  Thereafter,
a turn back to the west and then west-northwest is predicted in the
3-5 day time period when Irma moves on the south and southwest sides
of the high.  Although the models agree on the overall scenario,
there remains about 200 n mi north-south spread among the
best-performing models on day 5.  The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the south at the longer-range points, and it is about
halfway between the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to
the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season."

[Derecho!]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

Still a ton of members OTS.

Yep, the EC ensembles are a real wrench and a radical change,  vast majority are a VERY sharp recurve and complete miss of the US. 

[Derecho!]

06Z OP GFS still into Philadelphia. Will be interesting to see if the GEFS shifted. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, Stebo said:

 

Common theme with all 3, hitting the US. Not saying it would happen but when regain latitude toward the south like this is forecast to, it changes the game up considerably.

Yeah, the rare bend to the WSW as a major is telling us the ridge is strong enough to the north for this to possibly impact the US. IMHO the rare dip WSW prevented the early recurve option which is so common for storms in that region. This isn't really a surprise given the record ridge extending north of that location leading to the record heat and drought over Southern Europe this summer.

 

 

 

 

[packfan98]

6z GEFS mean track looks to be Outer Banks of NC up through Norfolk and the Chesapeake Bay, DC, then inland towards interior NY.

[franklin NCwx]

6 hours ago, TriPol said:

I think new laws of physics apply because of the new climate we're living in. It's now possible to get a storm of that magnitude all the way up here and for Houston to get 50"of rain in one week. Scary.

What about this?

This storm will continue to move instead of stalling like Harvey.

[csnavywx]

59 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

06Z OP GFS still into Philadelphia. Will be interesting to see if the GEFS shifted. 

Decent spread still. The mean is slightly west of the OP. However, the key point is 100% of the ensemble members make landfall.

At this distance it could still be 100% wrong, though. The evolution of the trough is paramount and the downstream rossby wave train induced by WPAC typhoon Sanvu is going to play havoc with solutions for a few more days wrt the synoptic pattern over the CONUS.

[bluewave]

Looks like the 0z OP Euro was a western outlier compared to the EPS mean and official TPC track. The 12z OP may shifter closer to ILM-OBX like the EPS mean.

 

 

[Jtm12180]

3 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

I take the following view on hurricanes, if a hurricane is approaching the eastern sea board or really anywhere honestly, I am of course fully aware of the disaster that follows, I am merely impressed by the force of nature. Admittedly there will always be a disconnect between those who reside near the coast and those well inland shielded from most violent weather events as I am. I along with the majority of others look at hurricanes with a sense of dreadful anticipation. When a hurricane lands it of course loses it's intensity and at that point, I hope the system comes over me just as with any weather event. Of course I do re-call the 2011 Super Outbreak as being one of the few weather events that actually made me fear for my life and significant damage occurred from hail with a few tornadoes in the region. I hate to open the moral conundrum this creates. I hope a hurricane goes out to sea if at all possible but if fate has ordained it make landfall and it has hit than so be it let it come over me. Does it make me a bad person? I mean when thinking of the losses caused due to the event that I could not control I cannot help but feel guilty when it does come over. Today for example the remnants of Harvey swept through my area giving some rather pleasant wind gusts with some refreshing rainfall. I do sincerely apologize if I have angered you.

I get it. Living 3-4 miles from the coast in Myrtle Beach, some of these models aren't what I want to see.

 

On the the other hand, my complete fascination by them after seeing what Hugo did as an 8 year old, I can't help but want to experience the power of one. But priorities change and doing crazy things like storm chasing or "riding out" a cat 4 go to the back burner when you have a family. When I was single I would've in a heartbeat! 

[csnavywx]

5 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

What about this?

This storm will continue to move instead of stalling like Harvey.

Stalls do happen with or without CC, but this is kind of apples and oranges wrt rainfall amounts. Texas has no major mountain ranges to help cause that kind of topographical enhancement and persistent perturbation/mass readjustment of the windfields to result in that amount of rainfall.

Slightly OT, so this will be the only post on it by me in this thread -- CC is one of the many factors and its effects are generally subtle and it's not always possible to disentangle its effects (at least easily). Also varies region to region (as the spatial pattern of warming is heterogeneous and non-linear).

WRT to a storm like Irma, the biggest effects are SSTs and increase in static stability and shear (factors that generally compete with each other). Since Irma isn't suffering from shear, SSTs/upper OHC are going to take the lead. 1-2C can make a big difference in intensity at the upper end and range/domain of the cyclone.

[csnavywx]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 0z OP Euro was a western outlier compared to the EPS mean and official TPC track. The 12z OP may shifter closer to ILM-OBX like the EPS mean.

 

 

We'll probably narrow that cone in the N Bahamas tomorrow. 168 hr is getting into the wheelhouse for the Euro though, and that's not a great spot for that storm to be. There's still an opportunity for it to pull a Joaquin and skip town if that trough is set up just right though.

[jbenedet]

I think the main takeaway at this point is we have lost the potential for it to miss the trough, so all southern solutions, taking her south of Fla, are essentially out of the mix. That's a big deal imo. To me, the timing was originally such that Irma would likely stay south, but the GFS's idea to slow down the trough, and create a prolonged weakness over the eastern CONUS has gained significant credibility.

[EasternLI]

 

[OSUmetstud]

Considerable difference in how the eps and the gefs handle the northern trough.  If the eps verifies...a strike north of the virginia capes is basically impossible since the war has been knocked back.  The gefs of course offers keeps all east coast solutions in play. 

 

[csnavywx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rare bend to the WSW as a major is telling us the ridge is strong enough to the north for this to possibly impact the US. IMHO the rare dip WSW prevented the early recurve option which is so common for storms in that region. This isn't really a surprise given the record ridge extending north of that location leading to the record heat and drought over Southern Europe this summer.

 

 

 

 

Also have to factor in that these big 'canes can often somewhat strengthen the steering ridge on their flank via strong upper level outflow and subsidence away from the storm. Irma is likely to be a big 'cane, so it has a better chance of modifying its steering environment than a smaller/weaker 'cane.

[SnowLover22]

[wawayanda]

 

[jbenedet]

 

17 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Considerable difference in how the eps and the gefs handle the northern trough.  If the eps verifies...a strike north of the virginia capes is basically impossible since the war has been knocked back.  The gefs of course offers keeps all east coast solutions in play. 

 

Yea. This IS the crux of the forecast right here. Which is correct? -- or will there be a compromise?

The good news is, this feature isn't exactly in fantasy land anymore--out about 160hr--so we should begin seeing a reliable consensus form on it over the next few days.

 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Also have to factor in that these big 'canes can often somewhat strengthen the steering ridge on their flank via strong upper level outflow and subsidence away from the storm. Irma is likely to be a big 'cane, so it has a better chance of modifying its steering environment than a smaller/weaker 'cane.

Second summer in a row with the near to record breaking ridge W and SW of Spain. Seems to be part of a couplet producing the deep vortex and SST cold pool S and SE Of Greenland. Without this ridge inducing the WSW motion, Irma would recurve somewhere north of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. The EA has been in record positive territory recently.

 

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

We'll probably narrow that cone in the N Bahamas tomorrow. 168 hr is getting into the wheelhouse for the Euro though, and that's not a great spot for that storm to be. There's still an opportunity for it to pull a Joaquin and skip town if that trough is set up just right though.

That's a dirty name.  Never good to see the Euro pull an OTS solution though, too many member have it staying a fish.  Hope to see that be eliminated in a few days.

[NortheastPAWx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a dirty name.  Never good to see the Euro pull an OTS solution though, too many member have it staying a fish.  Hope to see that be eliminated in a few days.

Was thinking the same, if you are looking for a LF. The EPS isn't even a close miss, it's a hard right out of here. 

We know who called Sandy from long-range...wasn't the GFS.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, NortheastPAWx said:

Was thinking the same, if you are looking for a LF. The EPS isn't even a close miss, it's a hard right out of here. 

We know who called Sandy from long-range...wasn't the GFS.

That was a much more stable pattern at day 7-10 than this is.  I would be amazed if this was locked Monday or Tuesday at this point. The pattern is just a total mess both over the US and WATL