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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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1 minute ago, LandofLincoln said:

HWRF looks strong again, but hard to tell the direction it moves on TT, because I don't know of a way to zoom out. Anyone got something better on that?

hr 45- Looks like its lost a few degrees LAT and lost pressure compared to 18z. 

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Scary run from the 6z GFS. Just one of many scenarios that could play out. I'm not buying last nights run of the EURO. Theres multiple troughs exiting the east coast as Irma approaches. While possible, Its going to be difficult for Irma to stay suppressed and enter the gulf. With a pressing WAR unless she can find a weakness and escape OTS, the east coast is under the gun. Long way to go folks. At the very least, this board is going into weenie mode for the next 10 days.

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Keep in mind that all of the 28 FEMA USAR teams are, in some what shape or form, already tied to Texas and Louisiana for the next 4 weeks.  This is the first time in history that all national USAR teams hare deployed at once.  So if Irma gets herself together and make landfall as a strong storm then response will be further complicated.  There are some regional Incident Management Teams (IMTs) like the Baltimore IMT and Chicago IMT, but those are not designed for the Type I incidents like this...they are more for regional things like presidential visits, super bowls, etc.  

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Keep in mind that all of the 28 FEMA USAR teams are, in some what shape or form, already tied to Texas and Louisiana for the next 4 weeks.  This is the first time in history that all national USAR teams hare deployed at once.  So if Irma gets herself together and make landfall as a strong storm then response will be further complicated.  There are some regional Incident Management Teams (IMTs) like the Baltimore IMT and Chicago IMT, but those are not designed for the Type I incidents like this...they are more for regional things like presidential visits, super bowls, etc.  

When I was at FEMA last summer (I am now in Local OEM), a career veteran of FEMA told me, "If two major disasters hit at the same time in different parts of the country, FEMA will break." If IRMA followed a track like the 6z GFS, I am afraid that scenario would play out. Obviously lots of time to determine where/if Irma will be a threat, but following on the tail of Harvey, it is a scary situation to consider.

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13 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said:

When I was at FEMA last summer (I am now in Local OEM), a career veteran of FEMA told me, "If two major disasters hit at the same time in different parts of the country, FEMA will break." If IRMA followed a track like the 6z GFS, I am afraid that scenario would play out. Obviously lots of time to determine where/if Irma will be a threat, but following on the tail of Harvey, it is a scary situation to consider.

Latest experts weigh in--Harvey with a $190 billion price tag. Cost of Katrina and Sandy combined...

Irma will be critical to watch for this reason alone.

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-predicts-hurricane-harvey-to-be-the-most-costly-natural-disaster-in-us-history/70002597

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5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I'd be shocked if Irma isn't a hurricane now. Looking very impressive. Will only go up from here. Not a lot of road blocks or speed bumps in the path.

 

Agree based on visible structure showing eye-like features, haven't looked at the microwave. I'd say 80mph are a good possibility.

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I don't think they upgrade Irma without at least 1 recon flight first.  That's just me though.

Usually from that far in the Atlantic, satellite intensity estimates are relied on to a large extent. The latest such estimates show a 65 knot-70 knot hurricane. If that holds, the 11 am advisory will probably show a 65 knot hurricane. 

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Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

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4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

Anyone know what this means saw it on a different weather forum

AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 40, 60, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, 
AL, 11, 2017083112, , BEST, 0, 167N, 334W, 75, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 180, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IRMA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023,

 

It means the NHC is likely to go with 75 knots at 11am 

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Outflow is just a little restricted to the NW of the center thanks to some shear, and that could keep this in check the next few days as most of the modeling indicates, however Irma is clearly already a hurricane with a well established core per microwave.

wg8sht.GIF

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