Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: GEFS Still staying close to the others http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Realistically as far as getting resources in place at a regional level, we're down to 96 hrs. Red Cross is tapped as far as volunteers and everything sent on to Texas. FEMA has asked Red Cross for volunteer help as well due to the enormous response needed in Texas, LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Mountain_Patch said: Still staying close to the others http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11 Thats last nights... check the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Thats last nights... check the date So many date issues! Hurry up November, the board needs their sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man, I was going to say...those look fishy- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Zeromus-X said: I'm in Sacramento and I can confirm that while there's no hurricane threat here, this weather is just awful. It hasn't rained since early April and we aren't set up for this weather. The majority of places in San Francisco that I visited while looking for rentals don't even have air conditioning! Used to live in Va Beach and have family in the area so I appreciate everyone's updates. The Hampton Roads VA area is almost always spared due to the shape of the land, but this one looks like it could be nasty for them if it makes landfall as strong as it has been around NC/SC. Still too far to know, but everyone's updates are appreciated greatly for someone who lives on the other side of the country now. Nah.....Sac is used to the heat and save for a few days - count them on one hand - SF residents don't need AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Clearly a north trend on GFS Ensembles control and spaghetti Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Not a odd take, to make a absolute statement like that is IMO reckless. But carry on... Feel free to list cat 5s at landfall from VA and above since the beginning of record keeping. ? Why do people get fished in by the long range GFS, in both winter and tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: Clearly a north trend on GFS Ensembles control and spaghetti Goes to show you the uncertainty of the final outcome... pretty different from 18z GEFS guidance. OTS solution has been trending less and less likely overtime, so I'd say that the greatest takeaway is to focus on consistent greater-picture trends such as less OTS solutions. Still pretty funny to me how clustered 18z GEFS further south, and now it's a fairly wide net with the eastern seaboard under the gun. Would be pretty worrying if we're painting the same picture 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, TPAwx said: Feel free to list cat 5s at landfall from VA and above since the beginning of record keeping. ? Why do people get fished in by the long range GFS, in both winter and tropical season? Who is getting fished? I see no hands raised. But when you say a run is wrong without any backup evidence it kinda makes you look silly. FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Who is getting fished? I see no hands raised. But when you say a run is wrong without any backup evidence it kinda makes you look silly. FYI. I do think it's a bit silly that people are saying cat 5 when Irma landfalls as a cat 2-cat 3 on one of the GFS solutions a week+ out... still *very* significant, but people going wacko over the pressure will make social media go wacko. Shame that things can spread like wildfire ... this is why people blame meteorologists when things are hyped and models are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Feel free to list cat 5s at landfall from VA and above since the beginning of record keeping. ? Why do people get fished in by the long range GFS, in both winter and tropical season?Feel free list all the 50" rainfalls before this week. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Who is getting fished? I see no hands raised. But when you say a run is wrong without any backup evidence it kinda makes you look silly. FYI. We're like 200 hours out we're being silly. in like 72 hours we'll be less silly. These are the farmers almanac of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Feel free list all the 50" rainfalls before this week. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Hawaii 52", Texas 48", Florid 45"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: Feel free list all the 50" rainfalls before this week. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk No 50" of rain on the GFS ... apples to oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Mountain_Patch said: Hawaii 52", Texas 48", Florid 45"... Last time I checked, 48 and 45 are less than 50. Feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS must be going through it's Irene phase. Euro went through it back in 2011 when it first got a resolution upgrade every storm above 30 north was a cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Feel free list all the 50" rainfalls before this week. Sent from my iPad using TapatalkOk come on now. A stalled tropical low with convergence off the Gulf of Mexico with overwhelming model support by all major global consensus is NOT even in the same universe as the GFS not handling tropical core dynamics well at high latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS must be going through it's Irene phase. Euro went through it back in 2011 when it first got a resolution upgrade every storm above 30 north was a cat 5. GFS has a lot of problems. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/#P3Evw6fsAmqK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Windspeed said: Ok come on now. A stalled tropical low with convergence off the Gulf of Mexico with overwhelming model support by all major global consensus is NOT even in the same universe as the GFS not handling tropical core dynamics well at high latitudes. If a phase does not happen, this would be a warm core. It's still early on, so baroclinicity or shear is lessened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 When water temps off the Delmarva are well into the 80s, then we can discuss the possibility of getting a cat 5 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: When water temps off the Delmarva are well into the 80s, then we can discuss the possibility of getting a cat 5 there. Speaking of 80's Irma is about to hit 84 degree water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: Clearly a north trend on GFS Ensembles control and spaghetti Run to run differences isn't a trend... and previous runs until this run were coming further south, including the OP coming further south. That is more of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, TriPol said: Looking more and more like Irene... Ugh... The flooding from Irene up here in the Hudson Valley was tremendous. Id rather not go through that again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Man, imagine if is struck on 9/11, too...what a kick in the jimmies for the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: When water temps off the Delmarva are well into the 80s, then we can discuss the possibility of getting a cat 5 there. I mean they are well into the 80s until Cape Hatteras, a storm won't spin down that significantly the last 75 miles if verbatim this run were correct. At the speed it would be moving it would have maybe 6 hours not over 82 degree water. Not saying it is probable or likely or anything along that line, but I wouldn't completely rule it out at all especially if it is a strong cat 5 which there is a chance coming out of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: GFS has a lot of problems. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/#P3Evw6fsAmqK Well that's why I usually turn to the UKMET, Euro and EPS for more opinions. I am not particularly pleased with the GFSs performance in the past year. It hasn't handled any of the big storms well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 46 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said: Unless co2 is changing the ocean currents you good. who knows maybe the gulf stream is slowing down like some forecasted to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: I mean they are well into the 80s until Cape Hatteras, a storm won't spin down that significantly the last 75 miles if verbatim this run were correct. At the speed it would be moving it would have maybe 6 hours not over 82 degree water. Not saying it is probable or likely or anything along that line, but I wouldn't completely rule it out at all especially if it is a strong cat 5 which there is a chance coming out of the Bahamas. Ok, is it like a 0.2% chance? Sure, if we have a 175 mph storm right off the coast of North Carolina, then maybe it could hold on long enough as it headed north. Now even though it is unlikely and never been recorded, I would be less dismissive of a category 5 being able to occur in the Carolinas. In theory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Ok, is it like a 0.2% chance? Sure, if we have a 175 mph storm right off the coast of North Carolina, then maybe it could hold on long enough as it headed north. Now even though it is unlikely and never been recorded, I would be less dismissive of a category 5 being able to occur in the Carolinas. In theory... Honestly I would agree under normal circumstances, but seeing so many records fall all over the world over the last 15 years, gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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