NJwx85 Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 The 18z HMON gets this down to 915mb in less than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z HMON gets this down to 915mb in less than 5 days. Winds around 120kts though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 18z HMON stengthens 850mb (which is barely above the surface with a 915mb hurricane) winds all the way up to 175kts at HR114... incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 18z HMON stengthens 850mb (which is barely above the surface with a 915mb hurricane) winds all the way up to 175kts at HR114... incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: OUT TO HR36 ON TROPICAL TIDBITS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2017090200&fh=60 Link if anyone would like to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Interesting. Hour 54 at 948 mlb seems to almost be making a beeline for the Leeward and Winward Islands. Looks pretty far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Faster on the 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This run is coming in stronger and faster and slightly further north compared to 18z through 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 High-res GFS down to 934mb by hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Winds around 120kts thoughIs she a very large diameter storm on that model? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 at 78 It's almost identical to where it was at hour 90 on the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 looks like exact same placement as 18z through hr 78 so far to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 It's early with plenty of time to change, but this has bad news written all over it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 96 its a good 60-90 South of 18Z and has started it's WNW turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said: It's early with plenty of time to change, but this has bad news written all over it so far. In terms of a LF or Fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: In terms of a LF or Fish? Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That's a dangerously close miss by the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: At 96 its a good 60-90 South of 18Z and has start it's WNW turn. Ridge perhaps a hair stronger. Will make a closer pass to some of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: In terms of a LF or Fish? If you want landfall, it has a good look to it so far. My apologies - should have clarified! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: That's a dangerously close miss by the islands. like a 100 mile miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, yoda said: like a 100 mile miss Its still a close miss for such a powerful hurricane for the northern most islands. Those northen most islands may have a shot at some TS conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Ridge is stronger so far on this run. Going to come in hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 120 it's a good 120-150 South if the 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At hour 120, I wonder if that trough is going to capture Irma and send it out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 99.9999999% sure LF with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 126 it still looks like it's heading more WNW as opposed to NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Down to 923mb by hour 132. With ridge building west while Midwest trough slows/stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: 99.9999999% sure LF with this run. maybe, but better hope that trough goes negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 934 low at hour 126 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: At 120 it's a good 120-150 South if the 18Z. I'm looking at small maps but it doesn't look that many miles farther south to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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