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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Stradivarious

Stradivarious

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

If the trough was oriented differently that one (Bob)  had the best chance of being a 1938 repeat.

I remember walking in Nantucket town on the piers as Bob was approaching. The winds were approaching gale force.The forecast was for it to be closer to Nantucket, with @110 mph gusts. We had boarded up our family house in town and taped windows, and my brother and I decided to take a walk by the harbor...we heard the Noah weather radio on the boats saying to expect up to 145 mph gusts... they had upped the intensity. My brother said, "let's go home and tape the windows some more".

the point of this is that I remember that the immediate forecast of Bob a few hours before landfall was for stronger than it turned out to be...

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted
Hurricane Isabel's Pinwheel Eye as a Monster Cat 5.  Hoping for the same.

4H2kKub.jpg&key=8ebc18a991a260a86e8e379f6de497e03193cf0152d1d02214a1e19db9481fc6

 

Isabel is THE QUEEN for best looking Cape Verde hurricane. Period. Irma may very well reach Cat 5. You folks seem certain, but remember, it takes amazing coorperarion with nearly every favorable atmospheric variable to pull it off. I think Irma will have a decent shot. We shall see...

 

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Mountain_Patch

Mountain_Patch

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Isabel is THE QUEEN for best looking Cape Verde hurricane. Period. Irma may very well reach Cat 5. You folks seem certain, but remember, it takes amazing coorperarion with nearly every favorable atmospheric variable to pull it off. I think Irma will have a decent shot. We shall see...

 

Every model says cat 5 now. Only one says NY landfall majority are Charleston. 

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Wife is 9 months pregnant. Due any day. I'm strongly hoping for an out to sea. I don't need any power outages, floods, etc etc. just a nice calm September please. 

And the sandy track was pretty much set in stone 8 days out lol

We will see. This is what I sent out to those who follow me.

"At this time there is the potential, albeit low, that a hurricane in the Atlantic may directly or indirectly threaten the area. Therefore, at this time, it is a good idea to review your emergency preparedness plans should the need arise that it be implemented"

This is about as far as I would go right now. Review what you would do should Irma take aim at you. This is what most local OEM offices are doing right now. Beyond that, do not get too worked up yet.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Mountain_Patch

Mountain_Patch

Posted
Posted
Just now, jburns said:

Whoever is in danger of getting hit with this would be wise to make some pre-arrangements with surrounding states for some rapid response mutual aid. FEMA has pretty much gone all in on Texas and the response from them would be slow and weak at best.

I'm in the direct path.

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No snow for you

No snow for you

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Mountain_Patch said:

Henry McMaster doesn't have a good staff, and his advisors are all indicted, or under investigation for corruption. Expect him to waffle a bit, but Catherine Templeton will force him to act decisively. Cooper, I'm uncertain about. N.C. is not handling split governance between parties well at all, so expect the N.C. legislature to complicate things a bit. 

I'll make sure McMaster evacs. I have some connections there. 

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017

After developing a nearly clear eye during the afternoon hours,
Irma appears to have once again temporarily peaked.  A WindSat pass
around 2100 UTC hinted at the beginning of another eyewall
replacement cycle, which would be consistent with the observed
cooling of the eye.  However, the small size of the hurricane's
inner core relative to the resolution of the microwave instrument
makes it impossible for me to say for sure.  The initial intensity
has been lowered slightly to 100 kt, but it should be stressed that
this is probably just another fluctuation, in what will likely
be a long string of small changes in intensity over the next
several days.  Since we do not have the ability to predict
such changes, the NHC forecast shows very gradual intensification
throughout the forecast period, given the warm SSTs and increasing
moisture content along the forecast track.  The NHC forecast is near
the intensity consensus, but slightly favors the higher dynamical
models.

The initial motion remains 275/12 kt.  The hurricane has moved a
little farther north than previously expected, and the track has
been adjusted in that direction.  Overall, the reasoning behind the
track forecast has not changed, and Irma is still expected to turn
west-southwestward on Saturday due to a building ridge over the
central Atlantic.  After about 72 h, there remains a large
north-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS continuing to show
a weaker ridge (and a northern track), while the ECMWF shows a
stronger ridge/southern track.  The ECMWF has performed better for
Irma thus far, so my forecast continues to favor that solution.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the
Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip
currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify
where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser
Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and
listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will
have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in
hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane
plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 19.1N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 19.0N  42.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 18.5N  44.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 17.9N  46.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 17.3N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  05/0000Z 16.8N  53.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  06/0000Z 18.0N  57.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  07/0000Z 20.5N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Zeromus-X

Zeromus-X

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Paragon said:

On another note, San Francisco had an all-time record high of 104 today and Sacramento is supposed to hit 110 tomorrow!

I'm in Sacramento and I can confirm that while there's no hurricane threat here, this weather is just awful. It hasn't rained since early April and we aren't set up for this weather. The majority of places in San Francisco that I visited while looking for rentals don't even have air conditioning!

Used to live in Va Beach and have family in the area so I appreciate everyone's updates. The Hampton Roads VA area is almost always spared due to the shape of the land, but this one looks like it could be nasty for them if it makes landfall as strong as it has been around NC/SC. Still too far to know, but everyone's updates are appreciated greatly for someone who lives on the other side of the country now.

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BlunderStorm

BlunderStorm

Posted
Posted

We can already with most assurance cross out all of Latin America with the exception of an unlikely strike on Hispaniola, Cuba, or Puerto Rico. We can also more than likely cross at an early curve to sea and transition to the gulf though neither are entirely ruled out. I believe this should be a "sensible" take away in terms of where it likely won't go.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Whoever is in danger of getting hit with this would be wise to make some pre-arrangements with surrounding states for some rapid response mutual aid. FEMA has pretty much gone all in on Texas and the response from them would be slow and weak at best.

Exactly. And this is what local OEM offices are doing. The most dangerous impact to this, imo, is that this is coming on the heels of the most expensive and potentially devastating disaster in US history. I know friends and colleagues I worked with are down in Texas pulling rescues. That being said, Houston is still in the process of rescues, and recovery efforts are realistically yet to start. What this means is that when Irma hits, assuming she does, the federal government is going to be already stretched thin while other states have already loaned out tremendous resources. For example, FDNY, NYPD, 106/107 airborne, etc have sent a plethora of resources to Houston. Not only has this been reciprocated across the country, it also means these rescuers are fatigued (I know all too well, from experience) and when their home town is hit, they do not have the reserves to run around the clock again. Likewise, other states will not have the resources to lend out.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Mountain_Patch

Mountain_Patch

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Exactly. And this is what local OEM offices are doing. The most dangerous impact to this, imo, is that this is coming on the heels of the most expensive and potentially devastating disaster in US history. I know friends and colleagues I worked with are down in Texas pulling rescues. That being said, Houston is still in the process of rescues, and recovery efforts are realistically yet to start. What this means is that when Irma hits, assuming she does, the federal government is going to be already stretched thin while other states have already loaned out tremendous resources. For example, FDNY, NYPD, 106/107 airborne, etc have sent a plethora of resources to Houston. Not only has this been reciprocated across the country, it also means these rescuers are fatigued (I know all too well, from experience) and when their home town is hit, they do not have the reserves to run around the clock again. Likewise, other states will not have the resources to lend out.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

That does terrify me a great deal. 

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