Major Hurricane Irma

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

I disagree, unless it completely phases with the trough which I don't see at this point.

I'd love to see you being right, but I don't remember the last time a pure hurricane made it this far north at this longitude.

 

[Stebo]

Just now, Paragon said:

I'd love to see you being right, but I don't remember the last time a pure hurricane made it this far north.

 

Irene and Floyd were both pure hurricanes, they were just scraping the coast.

[Wow]

3 minutes ago, Paragon said:

If this makes LF like what the ensembles showed in the SE it'll still be a pure hurricane, but if it gets north of say, VA, before making LF, I'd guess it'd have some hybrid characteristics.

 

I think it's too early (or late) in the season to get a hybrid.  Get more into Oct and Nov to get a good chance at one of those. 

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

I'd love to see you being right, but I don't remember the last time a pure hurricane made it this far north.

 

Irene

[Stebo]

Just now, Wow said:

I think it's too early (or late) in the season to get a hybrid.  Get more into Oct and Nov to get a good chance at one of those. 

This as well, that was part of the reason why Sandy was a hybrid, the cold air was readily available by then.

[Paragon]

Just now, Stebo said:

Irene and Floyd were both pure hurricanes, they were just scraping the coast.

Irene was a TS though and not a hurricane here (I think it was reclassified down to TS with its NJ landfall at Little Egg Harbor too), and Floyd was a 65 mph TS here.  Bob might be the last one, though it passed about 100 miles east of here.

 

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

I think it's too early (or late) in the season to get a hybrid.  Get more into Oct and Nov to get a good chance at one of those. 

You might be right, though for some reason the SST have started dropping around here earlier than unusual.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

Irene was a TS though and not a hurricane here (I think it was reclassified down to TS with its NJ landfall at Little Egg Harbor too), and Floyd was a 65 mph TS here.  Bob might be the last one, though it passed about 100 miles east of here.

 

Yeah it was evident day of landfall that Irene was likely a 60 or 65mph TS and they eventually did classify it down.  I think Floyd was 50 or 55.  Bob was 110mph when it passed east of Montauk.

[Hoosier]

A lot of attention will be at the coast, and rightfully so, but IF we get a landfall, the inland wind damage potential looks like something to not blow off, especially if we get any sort of partial trough capture.

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of attention will be at the coast, and rightfully so, but IF we get a landfall, the inland wind damage potential looks like something to not blow off, especially if we get any sort of partial trough capture.

and inland flooding- isn't that the most deadly side effect of these systems?

[Paragon]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah it was evident day of landfall that Irene was likely a 60 or 65mph TS and they eventually did classify it down.  I think Floyd was 50 or 55.  Bob was 110mph when it passed east of Montauk.

If the trough was oriented differently that one (Bob)  had the best chance of being a 1938 repeat.

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of attention will be at the coast, and rightfully so, but IF we get a landfall, the inland wind damage potential looks like something to not blow off, especially if we get any sort of partial trough capture.

The wind field on both the GFS and Euro is huge. TS winds extending well over a 100 miles out.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

lol @ thread being 31 pages already.

watch it go 100+ pages and Irma goes out to sea. 

[donsutherland1]

52 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That wouldn't be the Hog island hurricane of August 1893, would it, Don?

On another note, San Francisco had an all-time record high of 104 today and Sacramento is supposed to hit 110 tomorrow!

 

 

No. That was a separate storm.

[SN_Lover]

Large wind-field on the Ens!

 

[bdgwx]

The 18Z GEFS is interesting to say the least. To see a MSLP chart that cohesive with an outermost closed isobar that expansive at hours 192 and 216 most of the members have to be large cat 4s or 5s.

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Large wind-field on the Ens!

 

Not so much a measure of the size of the wind field, more a measure of the amount of spread between the members.

[bigtenfan]

To my untrained eye it looks like the EPS is fairly well east of the OP at 240 . Am I reading that right?

[Sportybx]

This would be complete Devastation........

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

This would be complete Devastation........

My house would be gone. Please don't happen. Please. 

[JasonOH]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My house would be gone. Please don't happen. Please. 

Now look at the GEFS. I think playing darts on a map is as accurate as the model guidance right now.

[Windspeed]

My house would be gone. Please don't happen. Please. 

Really? Come on, calm down. You have better odds being in an automobile accident tomorrow than Irma destroying your house. Seriously people.

8-10 days yet to go. Chill out.

[psv88]

Just now, Windspeed said:

Really? Come on, calm down. You have better odds being in an automobile accident tomorrow than Irma destroying your house. Seriously people.

8-10 days yet to go. Chill out.

Wife is 9 months pregnant. Due any day. I'm strongly hoping for an out to sea. I don't need any power outages, floods, etc etc. just a nice calm September please. 

And the sandy track was pretty much set in stone 8 days out lol

[Mountain_Patch]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Wife is 9 months pregnant. Due any day. I'm strongly hoping for an out to sea. I don't need any power outages, floods, etc etc. just a nice calm September please. 

And the sandy track was pretty much set in stone 8 days out lol

Be more afraid if you're in NC/SC/Florida. NY is one hell of a long shot. There won't be anything concrete for 4-5 days. Even so you'll have plenty of time to plan in the event of a worse case scenario. 

[Casualbrain]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

My house would be gone. Please don't happen. Please. 

My family home would be destroyed too - God spare L.I.!

 

[BlunderStorm]

2 hours ago, Jandurin said:

Still haven't seen that perfect right up the Chesapeake Bay scenario.  I'm waiting.

I believe you missed that run last night....it was crazy.

[downeastnc]

Should be done with this ERC soon

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_03.html

[hudsonvalley21]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wife is 9 months pregnant. Due any day. I'm strongly hoping for an out to sea. I don't need any power outages, floods, etc etc. just a nice calm September please. 

And the sandy track was pretty much set in stone 8 days out lol

I would rather be in the bullseye now than being 3 days out.  This makes you think on things to do next week to prepare just to be on top of things. 

[Santa Claus]

Sandy was something of a watershed moment in forecasting and I can't blame anyone who takes these dire 7+ day forecasts seriously.  An unmatched job by the Euro.  I'm open to any arguments for and against this forecast but "it's so far out" takes on less and less weight as the models get better and better.  And they do, seemingly constantly.  Better data, better math, better resolution, year after year.

Harvey illustrated the difficulty well.  If you want to best prepare for a storm, you need to act early.  The window between "these specific cities are screwed" and actual landfall could be a couple of days, at best.  Houston had little to no time.  If the population takes Irma seriously and acts immediately, hundreds of lives could be saved if that scenario actually unfolds.  If you wait until full confidence... hmm.

But preparation has its own expense.

Not trying to overreact to a few long-range model runs BTW... just trying to contextualize for what I think is a rapidly-evolving field (meteorology).

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, here are some accounts of the 1821 hurricane, while we wait for more model runs.

It is a remark of Dr. Franklin's that the devastations of our northeasterly storms commence in the southwest. The accounts which have been received of the progress of the late hurricane afford additional evidence of the correctness of the observation. It began at Norfolk about 10 o'clock in the morning [September 3]; at Philadelphia about 2 in the afternoon; at New Haven about 6 in the evening; and at Boston between 9 and 10 at night. The principal part of its fury was vented on the coast. new York and Norfolk are the greatest sufferers. The loss of the latter is supposed to amount to $250,000; of the extent of damage done to the former we have seen no estimate.

Source: "The Gale," Daily National Intelligencer, September 13, 1821.

From Norfolk, Virginia when the storm may have been at category 4 strength: 

The morning was dark and gloomy, and about 6 o'clock the black and lowering clouds began to discharge their watery contents, not in gentle showers, but literally in torrents. At 10 o'clock the rain abated for a few minutes, as if to collect itself for a more copious discharge; for it presently set in again with increased violence, and the wind commenced blowing a heavy gale from N.E. which continued to increase to a most alarming height.--From half past 11 till half past 12, so great was the fury of the elements, that they seemed to threaten a general demolition of everything within their reach. During that period the scene they presented was truly awful. The deafening roar of the storm, with the mingled crashing of windows, and falling of chimneys--the rapid rise of the tide, threatening to inundate the town--the continuous cataracts of rain sweeping impetuously along, darkening the expanse of vision, and apparently confounding the 'heavens, earth and sea' in a general chaos: together with now and then a glimpse, caught through the gloom, of shipping forced for their moorings, and driving with rapidity, as the mind might well conjecture in such circumstances, to inevitable destruction. Even to those, if any there were, who could contemplate such a scene unappalled, it must have been painful to reflect on the widespread devastation which could not but be the result of this fearful ‘war of elements.' About 12 o'clock the wind shifted round to N.W. but without abating its fury until half an hour after, when it ceased raining; the storm began to subside, and the water to recede. At 4 o'clock it changed to S.W. and the weather became calm and serene.

Source: "Tremendous Storm," The Raleigh Register, September 14, 1821.

An account from New York City:

Last evening [evening of September 3] we were visited with one of the most tremendous gales of wind ever experienced in this city. We had rain most of the day, with the wind from S. to S.E. Between 4 and 5 o'clock it changed to N.E. and blew until near 7 o'clock with great violence. About that hour the wind abated, and soon after shifted to W.N.W. At this time it was the hour of low water, but such had been the violence of the tempest, that the sea was forced in to such a degree, that the wharves were overflown to the depth of from 12 to 20 inches.

Most of the cellars in the lower parts of the city were filled with water, and we think considerable property must have been damaged.

The wharves on both sides of the city are greatly injured, and some destroyed. Large quantities of lumber, and some merchandise have floated off.

Source: "Tremendous Gale," The Maryland Gazette, September 13, 1821.

From around New York City:

From Flushing, L.I. we learn that the gale was very severe at that place; a shed of the Meeting-house was blown away. At Bloomingdale, and along the East River, some small houses and barns, and many trees, were blown down and several houses unroofed. At Hoboken, the bridge and dock washed away; Mr. Van Buskirk's grocery on the dock destroyed; the Hoboken ferry bridge on this side broken to pieces; the bridge and dock at the foot of Harrison Street nearly destroyed; most of the docks along the North [Hudson and East Rivers so much injured as to prevent the passage of carts. The gale at Jersey City was tremendous. The wind was from N.E. accompanied with hail and rain, which fell in torrents. The docks, wharves, piers, &c. were all swept away. The loss to the steamboat company is very great. Their wood is washed away, and their small rowboats stove.

Source: "Destructive Storm," Providence Patriot, September 12, 1821.