Major Hurricane Irma

[TriPol]

Could we also look at the persistent troughiness that's been going in since the Spring in the NE? Many of the NYC metro areas have had a lot of rain over Spring and Summer. With that in mind, does the usual later summer/early autumn pattern usually begin with a tropical type system up here?

[NJwx85]

What amazes me most about this run is the insane PRE before the storm even gets close to NYC. 21.7" max rainfall there, in about 18hrs or so.

[NJwx85]

Remember with Sandy it was occluding, and the North side was dry and windy while the South was much calmer and wet. This is the most like a 1938' redux I've seen in a long time.

[Rtd208]

I can honestly say the 18z GFS is pretty obnoxious, it would be very bad news for the NYC area that is for sure. The good news is we are far enough away that there are many options on the table and we probably won't start to get a better idea on the eventual track of Irma and its possible effects on the US east coast for another 3-4 days and even at that point there will still be some uncertainty.

[MattPetrulli]

Lets just laugh at 18z GFS and not talk about it. That works.

[Heisy]

Ignore landfall location. Pay attention to the pattern over the CONUS & the WAR. Each run is likely to be drastically different until we're within 5-6 days. Then we'll start to see smaller scale changes run to run. Check out the difference @ h5 on the 18z GFS compared to the 12z run wrt the trough across the E US. The 18z is much slower & closes it off. This helps boost the WAR out ahead of it. This will be different in 6 hours, still fun to track 

 

[MattPetrulli]

Just now, MattPetrulli said:

Lets just laugh at 18z GFS and not talk about it. That works.

It just proves we have an uncertain threat to the CONUS. No specific landfall location or specific impacts.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Remember with Sandy it was occluding, and the North side was dry and windy while the South was much calmer and wet. This is the most like a 1938' redux I've seen in a long time.

Eduoard in 1996 had a cycle or two of model runs about 4 days out which showed a 1938 redux.  But since most people did not have the internet or access as much as today it did not cause much hype.

[packfan98]

18z GEFS is southwest of the op...

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What amazes me most about this run is the insane PRE before the storm even gets close to NYC. 21.7" max rainfall there, in about 18hrs or so.

Looks like just from the PRE alone we would get 3-6" of rain prior to Irma's arrival.

[Hoosier]

A lot of western tracks on the 18z GEFS.

[Eduardo]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Eduoard in 1996 had a cycle or two of model runs about 4 days out which showed a 1938 redux.  But since most people did not have the internet or access as much as today it did not cause much hype.

There was some.  My location was under a Hurricane Watch for a time.  I definitely remember staying up all night as an 8 year old watching it on TWC.  I'm still waiting for it to make that hook!

[olafminesaw]

I couldn't be more wrong.

[Bob Chill]

29 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Still haven't seen that perfect right up the Chesapeake Bay scenario.  I'm waiting.

0z gfs last night took the eye up the shipping channel. So far dc, bos, and NYC have all been crushed. Philly is on deck this weekend. 

 

[TriPol]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

I couldn't be more wrong.

 

Oy. So, we definitely have a lot of solutions on the table. This one could get into the GoM.

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

For some historical context, since 1851 six tropical cyclones that were either hurricanes or went on to become hurricanes passed within 50 nautical miles of Irma's 5 pm location (18.8°N 39.1°W).

One of those six systems went on to make U.S. landfall. Five did not.

The storm that made landfall was the "Sea Islands" hurricane of 1893. That storm move north-northwestward off the Florida coast and then made landfall in extreme northeastern Georgia before moving across South Carolina as it gradually recurved. That hurricane made landfall as a Category 3 storm (100 kts) and brought Category 3 winds to parts of Georgia and South Carolina and Category 1 winds to North Carolina.

See Hurricane #6: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1893/index.php

In the case of this hurricane, ridging was expanding westward to its north, which precluded an earlier turn out to sea. This storm also saw a period of time where it tracked west-southwestward, something that is forecast by some of the guidance for Irma.

It's too soon to be confident in any landfall for Irma. At the same time, it would be premature to rule it out either, even as climatology would favor this outcome.

 

That wouldn't be the Hog island hurricane of August 1893, would it, Don?

On another note, San Francisco had an all-time record high of 104 today and Sacramento is supposed to hit 110 tomorrow!

 

 

[Paragon]

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Eduoard in 1996 had a cycle or two of model runs about 4 days out which showed a 1938 redux.  But since most people did not have the internet or access as much as today it did not cause much hype.

I almost canceled a weekend trip to the mountains for that storm!  Left late friday night when it became clear it wouldn't be a big deal.

[Paragon]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Remember with Sandy it was occluding, and the North side was dry and windy while the South was much calmer and wet. This is the most like a 1938' redux I've seen in a long time.

This reminds me more of the March 1993 superstorm, with that insane amount of precip before the low even got close to the region.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

A lot of western tracks on the 18z GEFS.

Hell all of them are to the left.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

This reminds me more of the March 1993 superstorm, with that insane amount of precip before the low even got close to the region.

The March 1993 superstorm wasn't tropical in origin at all. It was a triple phased system.

[NJwx85]

PRE's are very common with East coast landfalls.

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

The March 1993 superstorm wasn't tropical in origin at all. It was a triple phased system.

It received a major push from the Gulf though and created a storm surge on the FL coast.

[Wow]

6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Hell all of them are to the left.

That's a hard one to swallow. Most of the members are further inland than Hugo!  And when was the last time GA got a landfall?

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

PRE's are very common with East coast landfalls.

But this is an insane amount of rainfall.  I remember Gloria delivered about 6" of rain here, Bob was similar.

[Wow]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

It received a major push from the Gulf though and created a storm surge on the FL coast.

It was always a cold-core low pressure system.  Yes, in FL where tropical air was pulled up in the SE quadrant there was a lot of severe wx and surge along the coast.

[StormFollowerUSA]

9 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Hell all of them are to the left.

Very interesting. My least favorite possible path  (actually I hope it turns back out to sea and becomes a 'Fish Storm' after Harvey but I losing hope and I know none of these are not definite and just possibilities) is it going to Mississippi and Louisana especially if it stays Major Catagory Hurricane. we don't want an another Katrina on our hands.  ?Hopefully stays away from there  

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

That's a hard one to swallow. Most of the members are further inland than Hugo!  And when was the last time GA got a landfall?

This to me tells me something though, with so many ensembles like that, the ridge is stronger with this run and/or the trough pulls away/isn't as deep, either thing happens and this comes steamrolling WNW.

[Paragon]

Just now, Wow said:

It was always a cold-core low pressure system.  Yes, in FL where tropical air was pulled up in the SE quadrant there was a lot of severe wx and surge along the coast.

If this makes LF like what the ensembles showed in the SE it'll still be a pure hurricane, but if it gets north of say, VA, before making LF, I'd guess it'd have some hybrid characteristics.

 

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, Paragon said:

If this makes LF like what the ensembles showed in the SE it'll still be a pure hurricane, but if it gets north of say, VA, before making LF, I'd guess it'd have some hybrid characteristics.

 

I disagree, unless it completely phases with the trough which I don't see at this point.

[Mountain_Patch]

I've got 5 bucks on within 35 miles of Georgetown, S.C. Made this bet with a friend.