MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Like I said, pretty premature and unprofessional to say something is more likely than the other at this range currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Ouch... Thankfully that's Day 9 because that's terrible for the East Coast. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: Serious or joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 28 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Trough needs to go more negative or it's a fish. Great call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Seeya LI....nice knowing ya. GFS slams that area full speed ahead. It will be drastically different in 6 hours but thats some model porn right there.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Well, taking into account there has only been 5 recorded cases of majors east of 40W since 1851...not really a big pool to take samples from. Are there any other majors in the satellite era, other than IKE in 2008 ,to make such a big WSW dip in the larger Atlantic basin outside the Caribbean and Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I think at some point over the next few days the op GFS/Euro are going to forecast the worst-case scenario for every point on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seeya LI....nice knowing ya. GFS slams that area full speed ahead. It will be drastically different in 6 hours but thats some model porn right there. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk loop the 500mb and it's like a game of red rover. pretty neat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 42 minutes ago, Eduardo said: That's a remarkable stat, Chris. I usually let the climo be my guide when it comes to tracking these things, but in Irma's case, my confidence is reduced. Odds usually disfavor a US LF (and still do at this point here IMO), but that said, the probability here seems higher than usual for a storm at her strength and location. IMHO, this WSW dip is the main reason this has a shot of getting back near or west of 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 A foot of rain 100mph winds surge bigger than sandy we'd be screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This is the NYC weenie run. #resistthehype very true. but would Irma be willing to pay the tolls on the thruway to make its way to Montreal? yes, I am a bad comic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 eyy at least it's like ripping off a bandaid. Painful but yet fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: A foot of rain 100mph winds surge bigger than sandy we'd be screwed la la lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 WAR really flexes.....puts the brakes on the progressive trof causing it to amplify and you can almost see it retrograde when looping 500mb. Same with 250mb streamlines.....trof hits a brick wall. Something to watch anyway.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Impressive, long range solution but impressive. Our country would be in a lot of hurt if Houston and NYC are walloped within a months span. If that were to happen, whats next? The big one in LA in October lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Are there any others in the satellite era other than IKE in 2008 to make such a big WSW dip in the larger Atlantic basin outside the Caribbean and Gulf? Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time, outside of the GoM or Caribbean, is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Oh, and Betsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here's the overall trend: The hurricane will most likely NOT interact with Hispaniola and Cuba, which means it's most likely not a threat for the Gulf states. So we can take that off the map. But the trend has been for some kind of trough to pick up and pull it north. Now, will it recurve? Will it hit the keys? Western FL? The Carolinas? NYC? Time will tell, but these are the overall trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929 I do not think it is about the WSW dip so much as the blocking that is forecast to be setting up across the NW Atlantic and NE Canada. The existence of this feature determines whether or not the storm can escape OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Here's the overall trend: The hurricane will most likely NOT interact with Hispaniola and Cuba, which means it's most likely not a threat for the Gulf states. So we can take that off the map. Now, will it recurve? Will it hit the keys? Western FL? The Carolinas? NYC? I I would say another 48 hours and we may be able to eliminate the into the GOM idea but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This run is no bueno. Long Island would be dealing with 115 mph wind gusts if you account forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Oh, and Betsy Right, Betsy in 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, wxmx said: Satellite era or not, probably the only other major with such a pronounced WSW to SW movement for a prolonged period of time, outside of the GoM or Caribbean, is the Bahamas Hurricane of 1929 3 minutes ago, wxmx said: Oh, and Betsy Common theme with all 3, hitting the US. Not saying it would happen but when regain latitude toward the south like this is forecast to, it changes the game up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I think at some point over the next few days the op GFS/Euro are going to forecast the worst-case scenario for every point on the east coast. Still haven't seen that perfect right up the Chesapeake Bay scenario. I'm waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Common theme with all 3, hitting the US. Not saying it would happen but when regain latitude toward the south like this is forecast to, it changes the game up considerably. Betsy and the 1929 storm had the southwest turn happen much closer to the US than Irma so that it basically had no choice but to strike the US, but point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 You can see how the steering currents in the W Atlantic force the storm north. This is due to the combination of the trough in the eastern US and the WAR. As the trough becomes negatively tilted, Irma has nowhere to go except for NW, right into the eastern US coast. With this being said, it will still take about a week for the track of Irma to be more well defined. All options are on the table at this point: a strike to the east coast (Florida to Maine), a fish storm, or possibly even a GOM storm. It's too early to know, as the CONUS pattern may become completely different as next week rolls on. With this being said, the risk for a US landfall is much higher than normal at this point in time. Pay attention to this one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Anything beyond 100 hrs in terms of landfall location if it makes landfall at all can be ignored. I'll check back on Wednesday. Nice run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What are the analogs of the hurricanes that became major at this longitude that also have a SW dip that did not strike the US and recurved OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: What are the analogs of the hurricanes that became major at this longitude that also have a SW dip that did not strike the US and recurved OTS? Like I said, there are only 5 recorded cases of majors east of 40W since 1851. None had a SW dip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Typical looking NE hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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