Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, Diggiebot said: It wasn't really a cat 3 at landfall but its high forward speed (50-60 mph) added to the wind speeds. 13 minutes ago, Hoth said: Interesting, so categorization is based only on a static system? Forward speed is taken into account for intensity estimates. The HURDAT reanalysis maintained 1938 as a Cat 3 at landfall on Long Island, so yeah, that map is inaccurate in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: This doesn't make any sense as written. Higher heights over the US means Irma would be less likely to gain latitude. *decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: To get a 'Sandy' type of event, a hurricane would have to shoot north to Jersey and make a sudden left turn into the Delmarva area, which is what Sandy did. The chances of that happening again in our lifetimes is about 1 in a million. We've actually seen a few "left hooks" over the years back to the coast. They just usually aren't as extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: We've actually seen a few "left hooks" over the years back to the coast. They just usually aren't as extreme. Yeah it would be a 1 in 1000 year event to see a Cat 3 do that up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: We've actually seen a few "left hooks" over the years back to the coast. They just usually aren't as extreme. This isn't going to be a sandy based on current guidance. Might it change going forward, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Lots of fishing in the 12z EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Interesting I like Floyd alot, some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Not with this look...Still a week+ out. But with this look, a re-curve is highly likely. You are right. Verbatim the 12Z EPS ensemble mean is OTS after hr 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Can we not with the Sandy talk? Nothing about this setup is really remotely similar to that one, not to mention it is happening a month and a half earlier where that type of baroclinic interaction is significantly less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 It's pretty premature to say something is highly likely at this point. It's really a coin flip between landfall and fish currently. I'm not even a weenie trying to hype it up or anything, but its pretty unprofessional to say something is highly likely a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 hour ago, SN_Lover said: looks stuck just under 19N. Should start drifting South soon.... The last frame or two, you can see it jog W and WSW! Can see the SW curve about to begin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: This isn't going to be a sandy based on current guidance. Might it change going forward, maybe. To be clear, I wasn't comparing this to Sandy. All I'm saying is that the track is not as unprecedented as some people may think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Here's another possible analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 This meteorologist does a great job presenting the situation to the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: It's pretty premature to say something is highly likely at this point. It's really a coin flip between landfall and fish currently. I'm not even a weenie trying to hype it up or anything, but its pretty unprofessional to say something is highly likely a week out. Yeah, its like people never learn. Full hype mode unnecessary right now. A lot of the arguments "Look at that ridge nowhere to go but striking the coast" are misguided. Just because it shows that now, doesn't really mean anything. Katrina was originally going to be a Florida panhandle hit and a major storm up the SE coast. Models and conditions looked as certain then and these do now. Stuff changes. I think this needs to be watched, but if I was a betting man, I'd bet fish any day, climo and stats argue it. Models are for entertainment at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Yeah, its like people never learn. Full hype mode unnecessary right now. A lot of the arguments "Look at that ridge nowhere to go but striking the coast" are misguided. Just because it shows that now, doesn't really mean anything. Katrina was originally going to be a Florida panhandle hit and a major storm up the SE coast. Models and conditions looked as certain then and these do now. Stuff changes. I think this needs to be watched, but if I was a betting man, I'd bet fish any day, climo and stats argue it. Models are for entertainment at this range. social media will be awful this weekend with alot of mis-information and fear mongering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Yeah, its like people never learn. Full hype mode unnecessary right now. A lot of the arguments "Look at that ridge nowhere to go but striking the coast" are misguided. Just because it shows that now, doesn't really mean anything. Katrina was originally going to be a Florida panhandle hit and a major storm up the SE coast. Models and conditions looked as certain then and these do now. Stuff changes. I think this needs to be watched, but if I was a betting man, I'd bet fish any day, climo and stats argue it. Models are for entertainment at this range. It may fish, really depends on the strengh and speed of the OV trough and whether or not the building NE ridge can push it back NNW any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 What a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a beast She's even prettier than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a beast She is sexy, just don't say the A word lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma has returned to Major Hurricane status. Irma currently has maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. 964 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The big question in the path of Irma is the evolution of the trough over the US. In addition to sending the hurricane hunter into Irma, we need to send research planes out into the pacific to help gather observational data to feed into the models for forecasting that trough development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Key Messages being introduced with 5 PM advisory KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Going to take a guess and say they go 115kts at 5PM. 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 012049 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017 ...IRMA TURNS WESTWARD WITH 120-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 39.1W ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 39.1 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is expected tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength, up or down, are possible during the next few days, but Irma is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Can we tone down the ridiculous titles to this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Going to take a guess and say they go 115kts at 5PM. NHC went with 105 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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