Major Hurricane Irma

[larrye]

21 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said:

Is it pretty safe to say the 12z Euro is going to be west also? if the GFS is a nudge west the Euro has always been west of the GFS so would it not make sense that the Euro is a pretty much given to me west yet?

No.

[Hoosier]

fwiw, I went back and looked at the Miami (MIA) obs from Hurricane Andrew, and it looks like they had about 5 hours of gusts 75+ mph with the peak gust being 115 mph, at least on the hourly obs.  Just to give an idea of the difference in duration between that and what's possible with Irma.

[wendy]

5 minutes ago, thess said:

(I've read second-handedly that they are trying to evacuate 'everyone' from the island ahead of time, but with the complete clusterf*ck that is online 'news' in 2017, I can't find you a source I trust that doesn't have a paywall/adblock-whining popup.)

Here's the Prime Minister saying they have a mandatory evacuation of the entire island - 

More from Barbuda on twitter account of BBC reporter on the ground there. https://twitter.com/BBCLBicker

[csnavywx]

The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is. Worst winds are likely to be in a band about 20 miles in thickness around that (little wider on the right and a little thinner on the left).

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

The eye is currently just shy of 1 degree of longitude wide -- or almost the entire width of the southern tip of Florida. To put things in perspective, that is.

Great point. Hence, why even if the track has it landfalling on the western edge of the everglades, you could still be in the eyewall in Miami. 

[dan11295]

I am surprised the NHC isn't forecasting any weakening do to interaction with Cuba during the day tomorrow. Would think it would be knocked down 10-15 mph even without the eye going onshore.

[eyewall]

13 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

 

Good maybe we can end the last 10 pages of arguing about it

Anyway I am waiting to see just how close it gets to Cuba and how much that impacts the structure. 

[ag3]

12z Ukmet is north of the 0z run and it looks like it just scrapes the Cuban coast now, instead of fully getting eye into it.

[McQuackleton]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

12z Ukmet is north of the 0z run and it looks like it just scrapes the Cuban coast now, instead of fully getting eye into it.

Is there a public link to see the Ukmet model in progress?

[ag3]

3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

12z Ukmet is north of the 0z run and it looks like it just scrapes the Cuban coast now, instead of fully getting eye into it.

Blue line is 12z Ukmet:

 

[adiabatic13]

In fact, due to Irma's wider diameter eye, landfall in central Cuba is increasingly likely with a continued WNW movement this evening. No one in FL should let their guard down; however, the ongoing intensification (post-ERC) will not necessarily continue once direct interaction with Cuba commences. What was looking last evening like a large-scale catastrophe in FL may as a result be lessened in areal coverage. I am not downplaying the seriousness of this situation, this storm carries incredible kinetic energy...that said, a little interaction with Cuba and a track into the everglades is the most Floridians can hope for at this point, and it looks as though they just might get it.

[NJwx85]

14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, I went back and looked at the Miami (MIA) obs from Hurricane Andrew, and it looks like they had about 5 hours of gusts 75+ mph with the peak gust being 115 mph, at least on the hourly obs.  Just to give an idea of the difference in duration between that and what's possible with Irma.

Didn't they miss the Northern eyewall there?

[psv88]

1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said:

In fact, due to Irma's wider diameter eye, landfall in central Cuba is increasingly likely with a continued WNW movement this evening. No one in FL should let their guard down; however, the ongoing intensification (post-ERC) will not necessarily continue once direct interaction with Cuba commences. What was looking last evening like a large-scale catastrophe in FL may as a result be lessened in areal coverage.

Intensification is expected after the turn north from Cuba 

[McQuackleton]

3 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

In fact, due to Irma's wider diameter eye, landfall in central Cuba is increasingly likely with a continued WNW movement this evening. No one in FL should let their guard down; however, the ongoing intensification (post-ERC) will not necessarily continue once direct interaction with Cuba commences. What was looking last evening like a large-scale catastrophe in FL may as a result be lessened in areal coverage.

May? Umm no, please look at previous page for wind speeds.

[beanskip]

12z HWRF going to get clear of Cape Sable while still over water -- will be perilously close to sneaking past Cape Romano as well.

[DCAlexandria]

4 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

In fact, due to Irma's wider diameter eye, landfall in central Cuba is increasingly likely with a continued WNW movement this evening. No one in FL should let their guard down; however, the ongoing intensification (post-ERC) will not necessarily continue once direct interaction with Cuba commences. What was looking last evening like a large-scale catastrophe in FL may as a result be lessened in areal coverage.

bad post, models dont show this at all.

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

In fact, due to Irma's wider diameter eye, landfall in central Cuba is increasingly likely with a continued WNW movement this evening. No one in FL should let their guard down; however, the ongoing intensification (post-ERC) will not necessarily continue once direct interaction with Cuba commences. What was looking last evening like a large-scale catastrophe in FL may as a result be lessened in areal coverage. I am not downplaying the seriousness of this situation, this storm carries incredible kinetic energy...that said, a little interaction with Cuba and a track into the everglades is the most Floridians can hope for at this point, and it looks as though they just might get it.

If anything, a close pass with Cuba, assuming the core largely remains offshore, could actually help to tighten up things some and increase the winds.

[beanskip]

These 10, 15, 25 mile jogs west are like buying Starbucks coffee every day -- no one purchase adds up to a lot of money, but when you get one every day, it makes a difference. 

[DCAlexandria]

HWRF is a brutal run for east coast of Florida, Keys to just west of daytona.

[beanskip]

Looks like a Chokoloskee landfall for 12z HWRF. Stronger winds for Naples/Ft. Myers (albeit offshore) than for places on the east coast like Ft. Lauderdale.

[wxeyeNH]

Since this is a general Irma thread I wanted to post something that I saw from someone in St John  US Virgin Islands.  It is one of my favorite vacation spots.  Island is absolutely divested.  Catastrophic damage.  Their port is destroyed so no way to get off the island.  No electric, no food.  No water.. Airport wiped out.  

Media is focused on other islands but this is a US ...  

here is her post from 9am today

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Dear people who love St. John, we desperately need your help. Please contact the White House, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN and all the other major news networks. We are being forgotten down here. As you know we have no cell service down here except for a quick blip here and there. We do have access to one NBC station out of New York. From what we are seeing, St. John and St. Thomas have completely been forgotten. The Today Show just now mentioned every damn island around but us - all non US islands too I'd like to point out. The United States Virgin Islands is just that - part of the United States. But right now, no one up north seems to remember that.

So why the desperate plea? People who I love so very much no longer have homes. They do not have possessions. Everything is gone. And it's not just one or two people, it's a lot. And if you've come here at least once, chances are you know the people directly affected. Those sailboats that you've all photographed in Cruz Bay- well at least eight of them are now slammed up against and jammed into Wharfside Village. Morgan's Mango is gone. Barefoot Cowboy is destroyed. We've heard Caneel Bay is gone. St. John Water and Ice is destroyed too. People cannot get ice or water. Our food will quickly run out. We wont have power for months. We still haven't heard anything about Coral Bay or the boats in Hurricane Hole, but we presume those are all gone too. We don't know when the airport will reopen. We don't know when our ferries and barges will run again. And we don't know if we're about to get hit again by Hurricane Jose.

So please, put yourselves in our shoes for a moment and start sharing. Start writing. Start calling. Start emailing. Get us some help please. We have never needed you all more than we do right now. I cannot beg you enough.

We are United States citizens. Please do not forget about us. Please help us.

-Jenn

[Casualbrain]

From Twitter: 

#Irma moving W between Cuba and Bahamas, max wind near 150 mph IKE back up to 110 TJ or 5.5 x Andrew based on @NOAA_HurrHunter @53rdWRS sfmr

 

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Didn't they miss the Northern eyewall there?

Yes I believe so.

Basically, expect worse wind impacts in Miami proper than what happened with Andrew (duration being a factor).  There's really no way out of that scenario at this point, barring a fairly significant westward shift.

[McQuackleton]

[beanskip]

Wow, HMON takes a huge dive south on the 12z run -- makes Cuban landfall and doesn't reemerge until it gets to 81W -- which is roughly the longitude at which the GFS makes FL landfall. Can only assume that's an outlier run from what has been an outlier model for the most part.

[NJwx85]

I think it's pretty amazing that this model attempts to show the remnants of an IEW.

[Paragon]

59 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Potential large eye, large amount of real estate. Big area of Cat 3+ winds. This is a bigger hurricane than Dora or 1935 LD cyclone. Not the best place for a NW track at this point. Any mild deviating or wobble and Miami metro is in eastern wall or Naples is in western wall. Still uncertainty even within ECMWF and GFS trend as there is static positon at 48 hrs. As we close in on 24 hours out from S. Fl landfall, we're focusing less on model guidance for point of landfall and more on track plot and even those unforeseen wobbles. Hopefully models keep trending west for now (sorry, Key West).

 

It does remind me of Donna.  Funny thing with Donna when she got to the NE, her eye was 100 miles wide when she crossed Long Island, her eye basically covered the distance from  Manhattan to Montauk!

 

[Quincy]

FWIW, 12z RGEM grazes the Cuba shoreline and takes the center WNW toward Key West. 

[bigtenfan]

13 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

HWRF is a brutal run for east coast of Florida, Keys to just west of daytona.

Maybe i am reading it wrong but looking at it it looks to be lower end hurricane winds for most of the Gold coast. Given the other alternatives I would take that in a heart beat.

[dan11295]

Will have to watch closely how the core interacted with the coastline. Those are things that the models aren't designed to handle and can influence the final track.