Akeem the African Dream Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:03 PM, bigtenfan said: 10-15 miles west can be a 30MPH difference in winds in eastern Palm Beach county. Correct? Expand At this rate the coast in Palm Beach County avoids a disaster. im feeling even more confident if my ride out spot as we approach the regions around Lake O not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:59 PM, Crazy4Wx said: Looks like a 10-15 mile shift west for the NHC track. Noise at this point. Expand Not to us on the Treasure Coast (Port St. Lucie/Stuart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 This hurricane will wobble west to east and east to west for awhile. Until the next Euro and probably the Euro after that this will continue to change. This is just a given at this point. Edit: I say Euro because that's what it looks like NHC is basing the track off of mostly even though GFS is finally in a agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I'd start to be worried if I was in the Ft Myers/Naples area. Eastern Broward/Palm Beach counties may be lessening their danger for a catastrophic impact anyway, but still too early to tell. Miami being further south/SSW could be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:14 PM, AcePuppy said: This hurricane will wobble west to east and east to west for awhile. Until the next Euro and probably the Euro after that this will continue to change. This is just a given at this point. Edit: I say Euro because that's what it looks like NHC is basing the track off of mostly even though GFS is finally in a agreement. Expand Yeah, but all the 12z hurricane models are basically in that exact same place as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:18 PM, JoMo said: Yeah, but all the 12z hurricane models are basically in that exact same place as well. Expand Yup if the euro shfit east, NHC will quickly shift the cone east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:18 PM, JoMo said: Yeah, but all the 12z hurricane models are basically in that exact same place as well. Expand Not denying that. Just stating the hurricane will continue to make adjustments in location for at least 24 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5-day animation of GOES-16 IR for Irma, Jose, Katia - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important. Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:11 PM, AlaskaETC said: Not much. The NAM should be ignored when dealing with tropical systems. Expand The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging? People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus. The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling them there were issues with a model run. People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:21 PM, AcePuppy said: Not denying that. Just stating the hurricane will continue to make adjustments in location for at least 24 more hours. Expand No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous. Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening. It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama. Winter around here is really hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:24 PM, SnoSki14 said: Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. Expand ^^^^Hot take ike was a cat 2 and landfall and this is going to be a 4. Of course it's going to be stronger than Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:28 PM, jasons said: The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important. Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall. Expand Completely disagree. You do not want SE FL in the RFQ. Right now that is where it sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:24 PM, SnoSki14 said: Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. Expand FWIW, 12z RGEM went way west, now well off the SW coast and heading up the W coast of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:28 PM, LovintheWhiteFluff said: The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging? People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus. The The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling you there were issues with a model run. People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. Expand It's been said here by people more knowledgeable than I am that the NAM has little use for tropical systems, H5 or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:30 PM, lwg8tr0514 said: No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous. Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening. It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama. Winter around here is really hilarious. Expand Good post, it will literally just take a minor degree angel change at 79W to make all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:30 PM, Crazy4Wx said: Completely disagree. You do not want SE FL in the RFQ. Right now that is where it sits. Expand This track is probably a decent scenario for PBI north along the coast. By no means it is good but look at the alternatives we are facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:32 PM, DCAlexandria said: Can someone liveblog the GFS? Expand Track it here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090812&fh=18&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Put here for posterity. 150mph, 150mph and 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So far, the 12z GFS is running very close to the 0z ECMWF's track through 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keysfins Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Question about rate of travel after "the turn": are there factors that would allow Irma to speed up/ slow down as it travels to the north? What factor would most likely affect the rate it travels through FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 3:33 PM, rdcrds4 said: 12Z GFS is coming in right now so far slower in time Expand I would think Slower is bad for East Coast of FL, has more time to get picked up to a N component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So do you all think atlanta motor speedway probably should make the campers who evacuated there leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 surprised nobody's mentioned the moisture from a weakening Katia , feeding into Irma. once it hits Mexico late tonight, some of it's moisture will flow north along the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Not much movement 24-30...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 30 hours, 919 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 906 mb at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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