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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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7 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

10-15 miles west can be a 30MPH difference in winds in eastern Palm Beach county. Correct?

 

 

At this rate the coast in Palm Beach County avoids a disaster.

im feeling even more confident if my ride out spot as we approach 

the regions around Lake O not so much 

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This hurricane will wobble west to east and east to west for awhile. Until the next Euro and probably the Euro after that this will continue to change. This is just a given at this point.

 

Edit: I say Euro because that's what it looks like NHC is basing the track off of mostly even though GFS is finally in a agreement.

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3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

This hurricane will wobble west to east and east to west for awhile. Until the next Euro and probably the Euro after that this will continue to change. This is just a given at this point.

Edit: I say Euro because that's what it looks like NHC is basing the track off of mostly even though GFS is finally in a agreement.

Yeah, but all the 12z hurricane models are basically in that exact same place as well. 

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Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. 

It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. 

What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. 

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The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important.

Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall.

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1 hour ago, AlaskaETC said:

Not much. The NAM should be ignored when dealing with tropical systems. 

The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging?

People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus.

The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling them there were issues with a model run. 

People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. 

 

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5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Not denying that. Just stating the hurricane will continue to make adjustments in location for at least 24 more hours.

No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous.  Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening.  It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama.  Winter around here is really hilarious.

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1 minute ago, jasons said:

The last two NHC track adjustments could be a significant saving grace for SE FL. Still too early to make that call though. Today and tonight will be very important.

Also, one item that is being overlooked in the discussion about engineering thresholds is the impact of wind-borne debris. Once you get up into the Cat 4 and esp. Cat 5 range, debris becomes a big problem and the risk of structural failures greatly increases. Let's hope that Miami-Dade can avoid the eyewall.

Completely disagree. You do not want SE FL in the RFQ. Right now that is where it sits.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Irma could end up as a stronger version of Ike for Florida, which will mean widespread, catastrophic damage for many. 

It's potential energy could be up to 6 times greater than Andrew and like Katrina this may end up being a mid Cat 4 storm with a Cat 5 surge. 

What I hope doesn't happen is that large eye clears out and the storm starts to reintensify because then no one on Florida will be safe. 

FWIW, 12z RGEM went way west, now well off the SW coast and heading up the W coast of FL.

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1 minute ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

The NAM should not be ignored when looking at tropical systems. Would I rely on it to make a prediction on where Irma is going to wind up? No. But it's a useful tool for looking at h5 in the short term. Where is the position of the ULL? Is it digging? How fast is it pulling out? How strong is the ridging?

People have been posting the HMON for a week now. It's uncoupled. So why are they looking at it? Well it a hurricane model, but more importantly they are looking for consensus. The

The best mets look at every piece of the puzzle to come up with forecasts and predictions. No one should be tossing anything of use unless they get a model diagnostic discussion from NWS telling you there were issues with a model run. 

People (myself included) look at the Euro, GFS, HWRF, etc because they are your workhorses, but we need to look at everything to get a better picture. If not, what's the point? Lets just shut down the site, stop giving out met degrees, and show a blend of the Euro/GFS for every storm. 

 

It's been said here by people more knowledgeable than I am that the NAM has little use for tropical systems, H5 or not

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Just now, lwg8tr0514 said:

No doubt, to say Palm Beach county is maybe out of the woods(yes someone said that here) yet based on a computer model is ludicrous.  Models will ingest more data today and tomorrow and in 24hrs we maybe looking at a swing of 50 miles back east or a continued jog west. This forum is funny, you have one post..She looks to be weakening, next post says she looks to be strengthening.  It's comical at times, people biases, or a bit of wishcasting wanting the storm stronger or coming their direction for some drama.  Winter around here is really hilarious.

Good post, it will literally just take a minor degree angel change at 79W to make all the difference.

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