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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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5 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

Several hours post landfall and hurricane force wind gusts still span the entire width of the peninsula plus some according to the ECMWF. Stunning and terrifying https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_72_507_379 (1).png

Would love to see those maps as Irma progresses up the peninsula. Lots of confusion and contradictory info about how strong winds will be in the central and then northern part of the state.

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6 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

Several hours post landfall and hurricane force wind gusts still span the entire width of the peninsula plus some according to the ECMWF. Stunning and terrifying https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017090800_72_507_379 (1).png

Gust potential is probably being underestimated My about 10mph or so in some of the local HLS statements.

 

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

Would love to see those maps as Irma progresses up the peninsula. Lots of confusion and contradictory info about how strong winds will be in the central and then northern part of the state.

Check 'em out yourself here: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170911-0000z.html:) 

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2 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said:

I don't think it's wishcasting (not that any human should wish for this to bomb out and pose even more of a threat) to think that Irma could make landfall as a cat 5, even just briefly. That bath water between FL and Cuba and the lack of sheer in the environment is ridiculously conducive to RI

The core looks much better than it has in a while, cold cloudtops and deeper convection. Sustained surface winds now appear to be around 130/135, we can assume gusts to 150. Most structures in South Florida can handle winds around 130, as soon as you push 140 severe structural failure begins, so intensity from here on out becomes MORE important than track IMHO

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

The core looks much better than it has in a while, cold cloudtops and deeper convection. Sustained surface winds now appear to be around 130/135, we can assume gusts to 150. Most structures in South Florida can handle winds around 130, as soon as you push 140 severe structural failure begins, so intensity from here on out becomes MORE important than track IMHO

As I posted earlier, most of the structures in SE Florida are built to handle strong Easterly winds, when you flip them around to Southwesterly, not so much. It's one of the reasons why Wilma was one of the most damaging hurricanes in recent history.

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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Thanks.  nice pic. :(

You see the train station? 

BTW - still not sure which key will catch the brunt, but if you can imagine, Marathon or Islamorada WILL be looking like this unless the storm develops a conscience and spins out to the GOM to die.

Train_derailed_by_the_1935_hurricane.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Can anyone predict the storm surge of Irma and how many feet it will be ? I know that much depends on the track and I understand that with the rotation of the storm that when Irma hits the East side of the storm would get counter clockwise strong winds and then later as Irma continues up Florida to the North the backside of the storm and rotation would now surge on the West and back side of the storm------> do I have that correct ? Also I just watched the weather channel and they showed a chart for the predicted storm surge and they were saying max 6 to 9 foot surges on the West side of Florida and not much for Miami or the East side so Im confused ? A 6 to 9 foot surge would do tremendous damage but I read many pages back where mets on this thread were saying the surge could be 15 feet or higher , would the fact that Irma has been heading this way for days and had time to build up the surge effect the height of it , I would think yes . Does the weather channel have the potential max surge numbers  wrong ?,,,,,,thoughts and answers appreciated . 

Brasiluvsnow, here's a good source from the NOAA:

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/index.php?S=Irma2017&Adv=34&Ty=e10&Z=z4&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Help=about

Miami is somewhat protected from storm surge due to the steep shelf drop off its coastline.  Areas with longer shallow sloping coastlines are more prone to higher storm surge.  In both cases it is due to how the surge wave interacts with the ocean floor along the coast.

You can read more about it here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge

 

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10 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

Gust potential is probably being underestimated My about 10mph or so in some of the local HLS statements.

 

Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Irma is starting to have that look again, I would expect recon to find a strengthening system soon.

Last pass from NOAA found 150 kts FL which is the highest I've seen in awhile. Still, people have been calling for strengthening for like 18 hours based on satellite and general spidey sense. As a matter of fact most posts in this thread use spidey sense as evidence. Anyway, pressure still seems to be slowly creeping up so it's a bit of a mixed bag at the moment.

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5 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours.

Right. But the difference between a swfl LF and sefl  LF is significant in terms of population and business structures. The difference between 110mph in downtown MIA and 160mph  is massive.

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Just now, Dunkman said:

Last pass from NOAA found 150 kts FL which is the highest I've seen in awhile. Still, people have been calling for strengthening for like 18 hours based on satellite and general spidey sense. As a matter of fact most posts in this thread use spidey sense as evidence. Anyway, pressure still seems to be slowly creeping up so it's a bit of a mixed bag at the moment.

It was clearly undergoing an ERC and probably feeling some adverse effects from the close pass to Hispaniola yesterday. Radar and recon confirms that the ERC is just about completed and the IR presentation has improved remarkably the last few hours. 150kts at flight level supports an upgrade back to 135kts or 155MPH.

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6 minutes ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

Great map to illustrate why bickering over exact landfalls is not priductive, even the Euro solution puts devastating storm surge up Biscayne Bay and hurricane force winds in all of south Florida for hours.

Disagree here. Most of South Florida can handle cat 1 winds, cat 4 is different.

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9 minutes ago, LawdogGRNJ said:

Brasiluvsnow, here's a good source from the NOAA:

http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/psurge2.0/index.php?S=Irma2017&Adv=34&Ty=e10&Z=z4&D=agl&Ti=cum&Msg=17&Help=about

Miami is somewhat protected from storm surge due to the steep shelf drop off its coastline.  Areas with longer shallow sloping coastlines are more prone to higher storm surge.  In both cases it is due to how the surge wave interacts with the ocean floor along the coast.

You can read more about it here:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge

 

Lawdog, great info thank you !

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Disagree here. Most of South Florida can handle cat 1 winds, cat 4 is different.

Let's not forget that higher gusts can occur than the maximum sustained winds. Just because the system might make landfall as a high end CAT 4 doesn't mean that CAT 5 wind gusts won't occur.

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