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Major Hurricane Irma

NJwx85

By NJwx85,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
Just now, DCAlexandria said:

I see that too.  If that last a few more frames....

I don't know if that will have great implications for the eventual track, though I suppose it would slightly favor the more east solutions.  But more importantly, it could keep it far enough away from Cuba to mitigate any land effects on the circulation.  We'll see.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, lwg8tr0514 said:

The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida.  I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm.  The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point.  I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR.

I wouldn't ignore SW FL either. A bit of a mini pop center there. Can't ignore that last 24hrs+of west ticks.

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kenavp

kenavp

Posted
Posted
Just now, lwg8tr0514 said:

The NHC is still looking at this being a big problem for the EC of Florida.  I was watching WPLG in Miami this am and guy from the NHC, they are discounting a serious jog west at this point like cutting across the Keys, like the 1935 no name, and this being a GOM storm.  The guy was very, VERY, VERY concerned about SE Florida population centers and less so about this being a problem for Tampa at this point.  I like that NHC is not as reactive as some here, getting twitchy at every model run or thing they see on the IR.

Good for the mets for making sure viewers in Miami are taking this incredibly seriously. No point in talking up the westward shift in the models instilling a false sense of security in people. 

On the flip side, hopefully the mets in Tampa are telling their viewers about the westward shift and how they need to heed evacuation warnings. 

Whether these guys believe the Euro or not means nothing. Neither they nor the model control the storm's outcome. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Yeah...I am not see how this is going to run into Cuba.

The Euro has it modeled to run west for a while.  It's done well with the track so far.  These NW jogs so far haven't been a trend more than they have been just the standard wobbles of a strong hurricane.  But enough of them to the NW would obviously lower the potential for impact with Cuba.

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DCAlexandria

DCAlexandria

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

for those agonizing over the wobbles you can track the storm here with an overlay of the nhc track. it is right in line with the track atm.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

Cool link, though FWIW the last couple frames the eye is slightly north of that line.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
Just now, Cold Rain said:

The Euro has it modeled to run west for a while.  It's done well with the track so far.  These NW jogs so far haven't been a trend more than they have been just the standard wobbles of a strong hurricane.  But enough of them to the NW would obviously lower the potential for impact with Cuba.

The 0z Euro kept the center just north of Cuba. But it has the southern eyewall running over the north coast cays.

ecmwf_cyclone_atlantic_21.thumb.png.75642f2c0e26f9f0e86d883e67faa312.png

 

 

 

 

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kenavp

kenavp

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

Cool link, though FWIW the last couple frames the eye is slightly north of that line.

What are you seeing that I'm not? I see a storm perfectly in line with the path with very slight meaningless wobbles along the way. Can you take a screenshot of the eye north of this line?

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said:

There's some data to suggest that it'll avoid cuba, despite the Euro's better handle on this storm I really wouldn't be surprised if it manages to stay far enough away from Cuba to prevent significant disruption.

I'm with you. 

Im starting to wonder if we see a more gradual turn NNW versus the hard right that was being advertised on guidance yesterday. The EPS and GEFS is hinting at this.

The way she's moving faster than previous guidance the influence of the WAR holds on longer, but she begins to feel the weakness from the trough before she approaches the longitude of the northern Bahamas 

Could we see a track WNW to south of the northern Bahamas then turning NW with a LF near homestead then turning NNW near Naples?

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, kenavp said:

What are you seeing that I'm not? I see a storm perfectly in line with the path with very slight meaningless wobbles along the way. Can you take a screenshot of the eye north of this line?

It seems like it resumed more W or WNW motion the last 45 minutes.  I did see a noticeable jog NW in the hour or so before that  

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
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Posted

I think Wilma might be a decent analog if you're trying to gauge impacts for Southeast Florida. This of course assumes that Irma comes ashore near Naples and not further East.

Some other things to consider...

  • Most of Southwest Florida is a giant swamp, which will help to mitigate the weakening process due to land interaction.
  • After Hurricane Andrew 25 years ago, the building code was re-evaluated and most newer structures in that region of Florida are much better equipped at handling hurricane force winds, however, they are built more to take the winds coming in off the Ocean from the East, not out of the Southwest. This was one of the reasons why the damage from Wilma was greater than expected in this region.
  • Irma is a very large hurricane with a very large wind field, and hurricane conditions will be felt far away from wherever the eyewall ultimately ends up. Tropical storm conditions may be felt as far away as the Florida Panhandle. 
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Jrad08

Jrad08

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

She is really looking better organized now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/bd-animated.gif

 

Still need the eye to clear out some and the new EW to contract similar to a figure skater when they bring their arms in to spin faster. My guess is this will happen in pretty short order and winds increase by the 2pm advisory

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems like it resumed more W or WNW motion the last 45 minutes.  I did see a noticeable jog NW in the hour or so before that  

Overall in the last couple hours it has moved slightly west of NW. That continued trajectory would keep the eye offshore of Cuba.

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Brasiluvsnow

Brasiluvsnow

Posted
Posted

Can anyone predict the storm surge of Irma and how many feet it will be ? I know that much depends on the track and I understand that with the rotation of the storm that when Irma hits the East side of the storm would get counter clockwise strong winds and then later as Irma continues up Florida to the North the backside of the storm and rotation would now surge on the West and back side of the storm------> do I have that correct ? Also I just watched the weather channel and they showed a chart for the predicted storm surge and they were saying max 6 to 9 foot surges on the West side of Florida and not much for Miami or the East side so Im confused ? A 6 to 9 foot surge would do tremendous damage but I read many pages back where mets on this thread were saying the surge could be 15 feet or higher , would the fact that Irma has been heading this way for days and had time to build up the surge effect the height of it , I would think yes . Does the weather channel have the potential max surge numbers  wrong ?,,,,,,thoughts and answers appreciated . 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

I have never seen a storm cover an entire state like Irma is going to do. This will be a very dangerous storm and I hope everyone already evacuated or will do so. It would be very stupid to ride this storm out.

The hurricane expert on The Weather Channel thinks that the center will be near the west coast of Florida just like what the Euro shows.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Papa Joe said:

The further west it tracks, the more of the middle/upper keys will get over wash, but I expect the lower keys will get Gulf side flooding.

 

For what over wash will do, google some 1935 Islamorada storm pics. Especially the ones with the train engine.

ETA: Here is a pic from the wiki page on the '35 storm. Note that the damage was what happened after the reef mitigated the surge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

 

 

Train_derailed_by_the_1935_hurricane.jpg

Thanks.  nice pic. :(

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