40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: It's very difficult to get a storm back up to Cat 5 after it has been there and then weakened some. Andrew did it, but that was reclassified after the fact. I think David actually got to Cat 5 three times, but that's an extreme rarity. Anyway Irma has set some amazing records, it peaked at 185 mph and stayed there for 36 hours, which is twice as long as any other hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history (David did it for 18 hours.) You don't expect a storm to stay at Cat 5 all the way to the coast anyway, especially when it becomes a Cat 5 so far away from the mainland. It'll still have Cat 5 surge damage though, regardless of wind speeds. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Differences between 150 and 170 is splitting hairs but you are right about 170 vs 120. Even if this is a Cat 3 the surge will be higher than what you typically see with a Cat 3 just because it's been a Cat 5 for so long. It has perfect outflow and high surface temps. Today into tomorrow the hurricane will look its best. With minimal interaction with cuba this won't be a cat 3 long, and likely will rebuild its lost intensity. The only changes occur as it gets in closer to florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: If you're 30, 40 or 50 stories up in a major hurricane you've got a death wish... Windfields on the north and east side of this storm are huge. I'd be curious to see how it compares with the widest hurricanes in the basin. I'm pleased to see winds come down over night because I believe there's a strong possibility of a strengthening storm at landfall. High SSTs, high TCHP and perhaps some slightly increasing shear but some of those shear vectors as we near landfall may serve to enhance an outflow channel and aid in some reorganization. Starting this process from a cat3 or cat4 storm will be much better than beginning intensification from 170mph. Some people have the idea that they're going to escape the surge by going higher up- which is really bad for the reasons you stated. I'm not sure this can get back to Cat 5 again but it's definitely better to have it weakening right now than start intensifying from 170 later on- I'm not sure where that'd lead and really not willing to find out (even from afar.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said: I thought the new Euro model has it more East now then even the NHC track? I am trying to figure out there track when 3/4 of the models have it well east of where they have it including the GFS and the ECMWF The 0Z ECMWF Ensemble mean and the GFS 06Z Ensemble mean are slightly West, not East, of the NHC Track - far more tracks over Tampa than Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said: I thought at 1st this was a decent site. This is beyond a decent site. It is probably one of, if not the best, forums dedicated to the weather and meteorology that can be found, and there is a wealth of talent posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: and don't forget the surge, anywhere east of the eye will experience that. With the storm coming from the south, the reef will mitigate some of the surge. There will still be a complete over wash of the keys from Islamorada east, flooding in much of the middle/lower keys. I worry about the critters at Theater of the Sea (and the two legged critters who don't get out). The further west it tracks, the "easier" it will be for Miami, but still expect extensive flooding, possibly with over wash of Miami Beach. As I mentioned before (and others have mentioned too), this is forecast to go west of Lake Okeechobee, and this will push much of the shallow lake to the northern end (flooding at the north). It will eventually have to slosh back south. Water, water, everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses. That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed. If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Latest cone - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Pressure rose quite a bit just between the last two passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Irma took a good hit last night with the ERC. Curious if it will recover. Looks like it could be mighty close to Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses. That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed. If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things. The models have the pressure dropping over the straights, which is indicative of a strengthening system. Charley did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountain_Patch Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I do think that some reintensification is possible...HOWEVER, some of the inflow will be disrupted by Cuba and other landmasses. That may counteract any possible strengthening. Just because the eye is over water doesn't mean strengthening is guaranteed. If any part of the inflow is being disrupted by terrain and a dryer airmass, that can help disrupt things. It has nearly perfect outflow, it won't be near the higher elevations of Cuba, and the water its going into is not only hot, but deep. The size of the storm will mitigate dry air, and the shear environment is almost non existent until it gets to the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: The models have the pressure dropping over the straights, which is indicative of a strengthening system. Charley did it. If the size of the storm is increasing that may put a cap on how much it can strengthen. Charley (as well as Andrew) were both pretty small systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Even two days ago the national media was hammering away at Miami as absolute certain Ground Zero which I raised an eyebrow at. Concerning there isn't a single ECMWF ensemble member East of Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Does the NHC update the cones at the 8AM and 2PM advisories? I thought the track was only adjusted at the 11 and 5 ones? Correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papa Joe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Does the NHC update the cones at the 8AM and 2PM advisories? I thought the track was only adjusted at the 11 and 5 ones? Correct me if I'm wrong. I think they update the current position, but not the rest of it. (nice avatar, btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: If the size of the storm is increasing that may put a cap on how much it can strengthen. Charley (as well as Andrew) were both pretty small systems. Sure...I do not think it will get back up to 185mph before Landfall...but you never want a deepening system at Landfall and that is what the models are projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Henry Margusity not buying Euro at all and makes a good point why. This thing will likely try to avoid hitting Cuba by doing the usual tip toeing around land. That may be enough of a jog occurring when it does that for it to verify closer to the hurricane models or GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Obviously further west is good for Miami metro, but how concerned do we have to be of the storm moving parallel to the W coast just offshore while the coast gets hammered with the eastern eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said: Sure...I do not think it will get back up to 185mph before Landfall...but you never want a deepening system at Landfall and that is what the models are projecting. Also that area is really marshy so it won't weaken as quickly when it hits land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Henry Margusity not buying Euro at all and makes a good point why. This thing will likely try to avoid hitting Cuba by doing the usual tip toeing around land. That may be enough of a jog occurring when it does that for it to verify closer to the hurricane models or GFS Even the 06Z GEFS has limited members over Miami - Ensemble Mean is over Ft. Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, PackGrad05 said: Does the NHC update the cones at the 8AM and 2PM advisories? I thought the track was only adjusted at the 11 and 5 ones? Correct me if I'm wrong. I believe you are correct, I'm a bit fearful that the new cone at 11 AM will be more shifted to the left, I'm getting more and more worried that here just outside of Tampa we will be getting closer to the Eye wall. I also really hope people don't get a false sense of security if the max winds continue to decrease a little bit or don't bump back up because I think the worst part of this storm is going to be the length of time that many places will be under Hurricane and TS force winds. Many places will be dealing with these winds for 8+ hours, when adding in the rain this will lead to many trees being uprooted/torn apart with debris flying around and can cause severe damage with broken windows or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Papa Joe said: I think they update the current position, but not the rest of it. (nice avatar, btw) Comparing the last 2, that is what they did. Just an update of the current position but the rest of the path remained the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: If the size of the storm is increasing that may put a cap on how much it can strengthen. Charley (as well as Andrew) were both pretty small systems. My exact thoughts. But I guess that's good for Florida's sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Some people wondered if the west trend would continue, and it keeps happening. People in Miami may never listen to evacuation orders again.... Evacs must be done today and the track still is unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If Irma wobbles off track a bit we will see all the models move together towards a different solution, ensembles included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Henry Margusity not buying Euro at all and makes a good point why. This thing will likely try to avoid hitting Cuba by doing the usual tip toeing around land. That may be enough of a jog occurring when it does that for it to verify closer to the hurricane models or GFS I agree. Also the 0z Euro has a west track that should begin right around now and last for a good part of the day. If that doesn't happen, or is shorter in duration than advertised, the LF near the SW coast is far less likely. Either way, we should find out over the next 6-12 hrs if this south/west trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Inner eye wall looking really good again, shes getting better organized now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 13 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Irma took a good hit last night with the ERC. Curious if it will recover. Looks like it could be mighty close to Cuba Yeah. The inner eyewall is persistent and not giving away easily. And it might make impacts in Cuba less severe. But this thing still likely has 3 days over mostly juicy conditions. I'm afraid that's plenty of time for this outer eyewall to take over and contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Roy said: Some people wondered if the west trend would continue, and it keeps happening. People in Miami may never listen to evacuation orders again.... They'll still get insanely bad wind damage regardless. Likely worse than Wilma where they were gusting 90-100 and the damage was pretty severe. If they get 110-120 mph gust even with the center 60 miles west of them it's a bad event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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