hlcater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Pretty sure this model has been doing pretty well so far with Irma, but I dont think it has public access, so don't quote me. I think I remember some NHC disco crediting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Wild Weather Monger said: No doubt. I only mentioned it because the change was quite large, and is in the short term period. It looked like the Atlantic ridge weakened its grip somewhat compared to the 18z run, but that is still a heck of a large move in one run. Hey, it's the NAM. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Pretty sure this model has been doing pretty well so far with Irma, but I dont think it has public access, so don't quote me. I think I remember some NHC disco crediting it. reminds me of the old secretive FSU superensemble. i love those kind of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 So while we have been arguing about whether the storm is falling apart, it looks like it has started back on a more WNW motion, which obviously could have implications down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Pretty sure this model has been doing pretty well so far with Irma, but I dont think it has public access, so don't quote me. I think I remember some NHC disco crediting it. I used this model a decent amount during severe season (obviously different than the tropics, but still) and it performed fairly well most times. Long story short, it's a model with a hexagonal grid where the grid spacing itself can be adjusted for global or regional domains, helping to capture both large scale and small scale atmospheric processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: It looked like the Atlantic ridge weakened its grip somewhat compared to the 18z run, but that is still a heck of a large move in one run. Hey, it's the NAM. Enough said. Here is the trend GIF for the synoptic setup. While it’s not good for forecasting TC track, it IS good at the 500mb longwave pattern inside 48 hours and is picking up on something for such a big change. Notice the trough in the NE is much slower and less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: reminds me of the old secretive FSU superensemble. i love those kind of models. It's no longer given much attention for a reason: http://www.theledger.com/news/20060603/fsu-cuts-off-free-hurricane-modeling-for-weather-agencies-meteorologists-frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geno Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 hours ago, forecasterjack said: Much appreciated, I'm glad you guys are enjoying the site! We're a startup with a relatively small base, so if you guys can help spread the word about some of the stuff we do that no one else does (like the full res ECMWF for free ), please do! As always, let me know if you have any questions about the site! I'm on it. Thanks so much for what you're doing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Good friend of mine lives in Orlando and in a manufactured home, he's going to ride it out Not a smart thing, could still be very strong at Orlando, why would you ride it out in a subpar structure...unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Pretty sure this model has been doing pretty well so far with Irma, but I dont think it has public access, so don't quote me. I think I remember some NHC disco crediting it. I see the IBM logo. Is that a Watson model using machine learning? If so, this is pretty interesting as it's the future of forecast modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I've always been fascinated by big hurricanes' ability to seem almost human in the way they avoid contact with land mass. Ultimately there ends up being no choice but it's cool how it all happens. I see that happening with Irma as she avoids islands in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said: Here is the trend GIF for the synoptic setup. While it’s not good for forecasting TC track, it IS good at the 500mb longwave pattern inside 48 hours and is picking up on something for such a big change. Notice the trough in the NE is much slower and less progressive. Yup... too bad is the NAM... but it actually moves it far enough east that the FL east coast only gets brushed by Irma. Laughable, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's no longer given much attention for a reason: http://www.theledger.com/news/20060603/fsu-cuts-off-free-hurricane-modeling-for-weather-agencies-meteorologists-frustrated but seems that NHC is using it..someone said it was quoted in a disco, The story states they would provide the information for free to NHC in situations just like this one, not sure if that is really happening. I'm sure we have a NHC met lurking here who can confirm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Lol, the NAM has it now going NNE up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 My take is no different from anyone else's for the most part.....the main challenge for me was parsing my words in such a manner has to convey the utmost sense of urgency that this warrants. http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Meanwhile in Barbuda, this looks to be a home with anchor bolting basically wiped clean from its foundation save for some straggling debris on the right (which may be from other buildings). Wonder if this is the result of an eyewall mesovortex given the comparative lack of damage to the buildings behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NAM: The SW to the NE hangs back and starts to phase with Irma and irma also starts phasing with the plain's SW. Also has it bombing out as it accelerates north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn't be so quick to write it off. The Nam nailed the march blizzard for the north east coast. Like really really nailed it. It's coming into range. I would at least use it for potential outcomes NAM actually looks to be diving the NE trough in to phase with it. It's interesting but a huge outlier, and no other model has anything close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, jasons said: I see the IBM logo. Is that a Watson model using machine learning? If so, this is pretty interesting as it's the future of forecast modeling. That's the WSI replacement for the RPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Are you fooking kidding me with the NAM? Is there any chance this verifies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Yup... too bad is the NAM... but it actually moves it far enough east that the FL east coast only gets brushed by Irma. Laughable, but still I think you missed my point. The reason the NAM trended so far east is it really slowed the trough down thus allowing it to capture Irma and pull her north. This is under 42 hours and the NAM is excellent at capturing things like a trough slowing down or energy phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 46 minutes ago, ALhurricane said: It's pretty simple. Microwave data and recon show an ERC. As a result, the wind field has expanded and peak winds have come down a bit but still measured at Cat 5 in the NW eyewall. Pressure holding steady as well. Once ERC is complete, it may be off to the races again. Those are the facts. Thank you. Mostly just lurk but the bickering is really turning me off. Nice to hear a voice of reason. This happens every major storm, fighting over ERCs etc. Gets old when something this serious is approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Bostonseminole said: but seems that NHC is using it..someone said it was quoted in a disco, The story states they would provide the information for free to NHC in situations just like this one, not sure if that is really happening. I'm sure we have a NHC met lurking here who can confirm Perhaps things changed since then. The article was more than 10 years old, so a lot might have happened since then. A lot of good academic work has been sold to the private sector. Another example is the H-Wind analysis data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, snowlover91 said: I think you missed my point. The reason the NAM trended so far east is it really slowed the trough down thus allowing it to capture Irma and pull her north. This is under 42 hours and the NAM is excellent at capturing things like a trough slowing down or energy phasing in. So you think this is believable? Any chance of a bad initialization? Florida is basically completely spared on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 FL winds higher in the OEW this pass through the NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: Meanwhile in Barbuda, this looks to be a home with anchor bolting basically wiped clean from its foundation save for some straggling debris on the right (which may be from other buildings). Wonder if this is the result of an eyewall mesovortex given the comparative lack of damage to the buildings behind. That's solid EF3-EF4 damage right there. It cant be said how strong the anchor bolts were, but even then, completely slabbing a house is no easy task. Also taking a look at the tree damage where it may even look like some minor debarkation on some of the trees in the background. This image alone should show Floridians what this hurricane is capable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's the WSI replacement for the RPM https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Deep_Thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_Deep_Thunder They own WSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 If somehow the NAM scores a huge win, FL escapes catastrophe, and we get an OBX landfall and still coming almost due N I will rip the remaining hairs out of my head! You cant script this stuff.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: If somehow the NAM scores a huge win, FL escapes catastrophe, and we get an OBX landfall and still coming almost due N I will rip the remaining hairs out of my head! You cant script this stuff. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Seriously, it's like a bad joke. You spare the entire Southeast, and then go for the OBX or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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