Wannabehippie Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Does anyone have a link to the latest Irma stats? ie eye wall size, max winds, etc/ thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Does anyone have a link to the latest Irma stats? ie eye wall size, max winds, etc/ thanks New vortex message should be coming out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days. There's definitely been a west trend today. I guess for MIA's sake we can hope for a continued west trend that then makes it a west FL coast threat. There's really no good outcome here-maybe this can get buried into Cuba for a time somehow and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Does anyone have a link to the latest Irma stats? ie eye wall size, max winds, etc/ thanks The 8 pm Public Advisory is out - 000 WTNT31 KNHC 072354 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 35A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017 ...IRMA PUMMELING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the Hurricane Warning east of Cabo Frances Viejo and the Tropical Storm Warning for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border with Haiti * Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas * Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands * Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, and Villa Clara * Central Bahamas * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Florida Keys * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Bay * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and Florida should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 71.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern Bahamas this evening. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force plane is 919 mb (27.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft Southeastern and central Bahamas...15 to 20 ft Northwestern Bahamas...5 to 10 ft Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti tonight. Hurricane conditions are occurring on the Turks and Caicos Islands. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are beginning in the southeastern Bahamas and will spread into the central Bahamas by tonight or early Friday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the north coast of Cuba late Friday and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwestern Bahamas Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Florida by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday evening: Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands... additional 1 to 2 inches Much of the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Andros Island and Bimini, Bahamas...12 to 16 inches, isolated 25 inches Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southern Dominican Republic and southern Haiti...2 to 5 inches Eastern and central Cuba...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches Southeast Florida and the upper Florida Keys...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Lower Florida Keys...2 to 5 inches In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the Dominican Republic, and should start affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Cloud tops now below -80C NE of the eye. This thing has a looooong way to go https://weather.us/satellite/turks-and-caicos/top-alert-superhd-5min.html#play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 it's not impossible to see a slight shift back east tonight/tomorrow. that's why the nhc doesn't make drastic shifts with each update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks a tick east - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 38 minutes ago, bobbutts said: They were hit directly by Charley in 2004 and I don't recall it being a big problem. http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm Found this article stating that many attractions opened the next day. I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days. Plenty of potential western coast tracks showing up now. Interesting how they are pretty much a NNW through the state instead of N or NNE now (capture by the cutoff I assume). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Cuban Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Cloud tops now below -80C NE of the eye. This thing has a looooong way to go https://weather.us/satellite/turks-and-caicos/top-alert-superhd-5min.html#play Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Further west track increases chance of more interaction with Cuba/possible weakening. Downside is unless it gets far enough West into the Gulf, the eastern eyewall could just rake the cities on SW FL coast on a NNW track without much weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The timing and duration of the northern turn and then the timing of the westward bend is so critical. It just seems like a very difficult track to forecast. So far, it's been on a general westward motion with degrees of more northern and southern jogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. I noticed that too....Should soon see with next vortex message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now. It's the first piece of land , that's tasted IRMA's true surge. Even all the islands hit yesterday...were either a direct hit or only got brushed on the south or west end. Just to the right of a hurricane = worst surge. wouldn't be surprised if their seeing a 20 to 25 foot surge. Think about how long this waters been gathering up on it's right side...about a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. Charley had a very small wind field and I-4 was kind of the dividing line between who got damage and who didn't. I was on the 'got damage' side.Oddly, Hurricane Erin in '95 is the only central Fl hurricane that really impacted the parks. Sea World didn't open day after until 2 because it took us that long to remove over 100 downed trees and shredded roofing from the ski stadium. Back to lurking...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. Almost...still gaining latitude..just slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy? Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. that looks very very saucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn. Honestly, I think the ensembles lose a bit of value for S FL at this point. 12z GFS probably the east boundary, 12z UK the West. Won't know for sure the track until that turn begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hazey said: The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes. Yeah, looks like it will be pretty bad. I spent the day on Grand Turk while on a cruise. All, low lying ground with no where to hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Edit: Updated. Sorry put wrong map at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before. Irma is just moving into the warmest waters it's encountered too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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