Major Hurricane Irma

[PackGrad05]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Ashville (especially) & Charlotte are still within the cone.

Yeah I meant to say Central NC.  Folks here are celebrating.

[forecasterjack]

Just now, AlaskaETC said:

No clue how they do it, but it seems legit.

I leave that to the lawyers and the higher-ups  my understanding is that since we're not giving away the raw GRIB data for free (we "value add" to display the data in a usable format), we're ok. 

[JC-CT]

I leave that to the lawyers and the higher-ups  my understanding is that since we're not giving away the raw GRIB data for free (we "value add" to display the data in a usable format), we're ok. 

Not sure that passes the sniff test.

[pazzo83]

Is it me or does it look like it's starting to respond to the 30C+ SSTs over which it is starting to move?

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

Is it me or does it look like it's starting to respond to the 30C+ SSTs over which it is starting to move?

Do you mind posting what you're looking at that makes you say this? 

If it matters, Raw T# is back up to 7.0

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I hope the mods and members don't mind me taking the time to give a shout out to @forecasterjack and his introducing me into his site weather.us. (Since it is a bit of Irma dead time)  I know we often get people pimping sites (personal and others), but this is one of the better ones that have been "sold" to me/us (free of charge!!) since I've been a member here (and at Eastern) ever.

Kudos Jack!  Look forward to more products, and thank you!

It's a great site.

[forecasterjack]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

Is it me or does it look like it's starting to respond to the 30C+ SSTs over which it is starting to move?

definitely looking better on satellite. Between warmer waters, lighter shear, and the easing of the downslope/dry air issues posed by Hispaniola, it's certainly looking healthier this evening unfortunately. GOES-16 custom domain loop: https://weather.us/satellite/745-w-213-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play click map to zoom in, click near edge to pan. (-) zooms out. 

[pazzo83]

Just now, WishingForWarmWeather said:

Do you mind posting what you're looking at that makes you say this? 

If it matters, Raw T# is back up to 7.0

 

There are a couple blobs right now, but 29-30 is pretty widespread.  Widespread 30+ probably a few hours from now.

[harrisale]

Caicos islands currently getting a lashing. Grand Turk, home to Cockburn Town, has a population of 3,700. It seems to have been in the northern eyewall for a while, never quite made it into the eye due to the storms NNW movement.

[NJwx85]

Irma just took a more Westerly jog, in any event, the Western side of the storm is clearly improving by the minute and I would agree that it should likely bomb out tonight.

[LakeEffectKing]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Irma just took a more Westerly jog, in any event, the Western side of the storm is clearly improving by the minute and I would agree that it should likely bomb out tonight.

Not sure we gain max wind values (maybe back up to 185), but I think we will see a pretty substantial pressure response (downward) over the next 12 hours)  (915??)

[HKY_WX]

Considering this became the strongest non-Caribbean/GOM storm in the Atlantic Basin, who's to say it wouldn't mirror that once it get's into the bath water over the Bahamas and Keys (and become the strongest ever in the GOM/Caribbean)??? Conditions continue to be excellent. Definitely agree w/ LEK that this can go sub 900mb with no problem. Can you imagine a sub 900mb storm landfalling just west of Miami on this N heading? Just crayyyy to watch this unfold. I have to think we are on the west side of the envelope of possibilities right now and wouldn't be surprised to see another correction east over the coming days. 

[Stebo]

54 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

We're probably seeing the best IR presentation since post-Barbuda hit. No longer as lopsided looking, so shear is probably trending down...

I wouldn't be shocked if recon finds a strengthening storm.

[wxmx]

Non-ambiguous ERC currently underway.

[SP]

Saying a prayer for one of my favorite places, Grace Bay. 

[Hoosier]

This is one of the most extreme forecasts I can recall for a major metro area in the US

 

Zone Forecast Product for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
531 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

FLZ173-081200-
Coastal Miami-Dade-
Including the cities of Aventura, Miami Beach, Miami Shores,
Downtown Miami, Cutler Bay, and Homestead Bayfront Park
531 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...


.SATURDAY NIGHT...Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely
with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Northeast winds
50 to 70 mph with gusts up to 90 mph...increasing to 110 to
130 mph with gusts up to 160 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
70 percent.

[jbenedet]

And for further entertainment- Jose hits New England as a strong hurricane at hr 300 on the 18z GFS.

 

 

 

[Crazieman]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This is one of the most extreme forecasts I can recall for a major metro area in the US

 

Zone Forecast Product for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
531 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

FLZ173-081200-
Coastal Miami-Dade-
Including the cities of Aventura, Miami Beach, Miami Shores,
Downtown Miami, Cutler Bay, and Homestead Bayfront Park
531 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT...


.SATURDAY NIGHT...Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely
with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Northeast winds
50 to 70 mph with gusts up to 90 mph...increasing to 110 to
130 mph with gusts up to 160 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
70 percent.

Chance of rain, 70%?

[McQuackleton]

So, seeing as there is now a track going up into Orlando, does anyone know what certain rides/attractions within Disney World/Universal/etc. can actually handle wind wise? Just curious.

[SN_Lover]

Curious, what would a faster and slightly southern than modeled storm do? Would what increase a FL landfall or decrease? 

[78Blizzard]

Hurricane model HMON @ 18z shows Key Largo with 170 mph winds @ 06z Sunday with the eye about 25 miles south.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Curious, what would a faster and slightly southern than modeled storm do? Would what increase a FL landfall or decrease? 

Increase.  Also would increase the chances of landfalling or skirting the Cuba coast.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

So, seeing as there is now a track going up into Orlando, does anyone know what certain rides/attractions within Disney World/Universal/etc. can actually handle wind wise? Just curious.

I know Disney has engineered recent (post 1994 or so) resort buildings and attractions to exceed mandated wind codes. Most of their hotels are constructed to withstand Cat 5 as are most recent attractions. 

Possibly one of the safest places in central FL

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Non-ambiguous ERC currently underway.

 

Old eye starting to look a little more stretched  Hasn't got the awesome flat tire look to it yet.

[wxeyeNH]

13 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

. Can you imagine a sub 900mb storm landfalling just west of Miami on this N heading? Just crayyyy to watch this unfold. I have to think we are on the west side of the envelope of possibilities right now and wouldn't be surprised to see another correction east over the coming days. 

I have followed tropical meteorologist my whole life and have chased several hurricanes.  The last one being Katrina. I have said to my friends my whole life (Im 60)  that a sub 925mb hurricane coming in just south of Miami and moving due north along the whole Gold Coast and beyond,  with the eye along the coast or 5-10 miles west would be the most devastating hurricane disaster the country could ever have.  I always consider the odds of that happening of perhaps once in 500 years.  Other than a Richter Scale 9 earthquake or an atomic bomb I can't think of a worse scenario.  Up until this afternoons Euro and GFS run I didn't think it would happen.  It still probably will not work out quite this way.  I just can't wrap my head around that 18Z GFS track.  Just move it back east 50 miles and keep the coast on the left side of the eye.....

[bobbutts]

11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

So, seeing as there is now a track going up into Orlando, does anyone know what certain rides/attractions within Disney World/Universal/etc. can actually handle wind wise? Just curious.

They were hit directly by Charley in 2004 and I don't recall it being a big problem.

Quote

Charley weakened considerably due to its passage over land, but still retained sustained winds of about 85 mph (137 km/h) as it passed directly over Orlando between 0020 and 0140 UTC August 14, ; gusts of up to 106 mph (171 km/h) were recorded at Orlando International Airport.

http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm

Found this article stating that many attractions opened the next day.

Quote

Under the circumstances, Disney CM's did an incredible job of keeping order and keeping us informed and safe. They had a plan and they carried it out. We never lost power or water, so we were a lot more forturnate than most people in the area. Getting the roads cleared and the parks open in under nine hours must have been an Herculean task. I have nothing but praise for all the CMs who stayed on storm duty and helped keep us all safe and secure, and those that had clean up duty after the storm passed. If I ever have to endure another tropical storm or hurricane, I'd do it again at Walt Disney World in a heartbeat.

 

[JC-CT]

Yellowstone eruption, but no matter. This is about the worst hurricane track for the south that one could take, should it verify.

The only thing it could do worse would be to continue all the way up the east coast, Miller A style.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have followed tropical meteorologist my whole life and have chased several hurricanes.  The last one being Katrina. I have said to my friends my whole life (Im 60)  that a sub 925mb hurricane coming in just south of Miami and moving due north along the whole Gold Coast and beyond,  with the eye along the coast or 5-10 miles west would be the most devastating hurricane disaster the country could ever have.  I always consider the odds of that happening of perhaps once in 500 years.  Other than a Richter Scale 9 earthquake or an atomic bomb I can't think of a worse scenario.  Up until this afternoons Euro and GFS run I didn't think it would happen.  It still probably will not work out quite this way.  I just can't wrap my head around that 18Z GFS track.  Just move it back east 50 miles and keep the coast on the left side of the eye.....

I'm starting to think it's more likely a west shift is more likely which would help but then somewhere like Naples or Fort Myers may be in trouble.  A west shift though could get this over Cuba for a time and maybe knock it down.   Now sure how much though 

[hlcater]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have followed tropical meteorologist my whole life and have chased several hurricanes.  The last one being Katrina. I have said to my friends my whole life (Im 60)  that a sub 925mb hurricane coming in just south of Miami and moving due north along the whole Gold Coast and beyond,  with the eye along the coast or 5-10 miles west would be the most devastating hurricane disaster the country could ever have.  I always consider the odds of that happening of perhaps once in 500 years.  Other than a Richter Scale 9 earthquake or an atomic bomb I can't think of a worse scenario.  Up until this afternoons Euro and GFS run I didn't think it would happen.  It still probably will not work out quite this way.  I just can't wrap my head around that 18Z GFS track.  Just move it back east 50 miles and keep the coast on the left side of the eye.....

Interesting, I didn't know you've followed tropical meteorology your whole life and chased several hurricanes. All jokes aside, I agree, the current track that the euro and the GFS have is probably the most devastating out of all of the potential tracks. The right front quadrant piling all that water into the keys, Everglades and biscayne bay can't be good. Especially due to the size, no matter where the eyewall goes, we are talking nasty, nasty surge.

[weathernerd]

The latest NHC sat image and forcast track.