NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Looks to me like the GGEM misses the trough, as the ridge rebuilds to the North. Perfect setup for a monster into Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 GGEM ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Back on topic, Irma looks to be just about done with the ERC as a new eye has popped on IR, however it still has some work to do in order to clear out the center. We saw this recently with Harvey. Once the eye clears out it should be bombs away. NHC forecast could be rather conservative in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Still seems to be headed in a general WNW direction on the northern edge of NHC forecast plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I cant see how the ridge to the North is going to allow this to shoot harmlessly OTS. Due N? Perhaps for a bit. But we've seen some guidance hint that as it heads N it encounters some sort of blocking then veers back NNW so, yeah, there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: Hurricane Bob on the 12z gfs I was in Hurricane Bob. In Harwich port. That was a neat storm. I assume you're referring to the 1991 Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 More misses on the ens than previous runs... Almost in line with euro runs before the major shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: More misses on the ens than previous runs... Almost in line with euro runs before the major shift. Guess it depends which location you're looking at. I see more clustered around FL hits than any prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 You can easily see the split here on the 12z GEFS mean between the two camps, one towards the Gulf and the other up the East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Guess it depends which location you're looking at. I see more clustered around FL hits than any prior runs. yup! that's what im going for. more members miss the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: More misses on the ens than previous runs... Almost in line with euro runs before the major shift. Wrong. First image yest. GEFS This is today's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jandurin said: I was in Hurricane Bob. In Harwich port. That was a neat storm. I assume you're referring to the 1991 Hurricane. NHC totally blew the 18 hour forecast on that though. Landfall was off by around 70 miles with their 5pm advisory on 8/18 showing landfall near Islip and it was more or less over Block Island. Worked out well for us here. Not so much for RI and the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Guess it depends which location you're looking at. I see more clustered around FL hits than any prior runs. Of the members that come up the coast, there was definitely a push to the East. That doesn't have any bearing on the members that miss the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, Z-Cast said: Wrong. First image yest. GEFS This is today's see comment to @Ralph Wiggum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: see comment to @Ralph Wiggum Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC totally blew the 18 hour forecast on that though. Landfall was off by around 70 miles with their 5pm advisory on 8/18 showing landfall near Islip and it was more or less over Block Island. Worked out well for us here. Not so much for RI and the Cape There were boats everywhere and the library got demolished by a tree but most of the houses weren't too bothered. I learned what 90mph winds felt like from that. We must have stayed on the cape bc of the forecast - I wasn't exactly old enough to be making decisions at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 12Z GEFS definitely comes further south at D5 and D7 lead times. There's a lot of spread after that, but you can definitely see a huge change with the 12Z cycle showing 2 distinctive tracks now instead of the single recurve north as in previous cycles. The southern track is still 9 days away from a possible landfall so it's certainly a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 What was Gloria's setup? Similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, TriPol said: What was Gloria's setup? Similar to this? No the trof was way back over the Great Lakes if I remember right and wasn't that deep. The trof base may have been over like KY. Most guidance here shows a deeper more progressive trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Ridge weaker than the 12z run yesterday on the euro run today at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, TriPol said: What was Gloria's setup? Similar to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: A thing of beauty. I remember Gloria like it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Irma headed due west from hrs 72 to 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 The key to getting a landfalling hurricane North of OBX is a deep trough in the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Nearly identical positioning wise so far to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I guess you could say it was, "glorious". Okay terrible pun time over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Just passing north of the Islands at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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