Blue Ridge Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5:00 advisory: no changes. 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 Location: 20.9°N 71.1°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 922 mb Max sustained: 175 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, otown said: Can anyone break down the different probabilities of what will occur? OTS, Miami hit the ride coast, spine, west LF, etc or do we just not know at this point? Might want to just go back about 20 pages and start reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Oddly the island reported 18 kt winds an hour ago, the most recent ob. http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/dominican-republic-haiti.php?icao=MBGTI'm sure it will go from calm to hell in very short order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasons Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 50 minutes ago, bobbutts said: If people are able to stay up late the roads should be far less busy overnight. People like to do things during the daytime. A lot of people tried that during Rita and it didn't work out so well for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Slight shift south and west on the 5pm track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Oddly the island reported 18 kt winds an hour ago, the most recent ob. http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/dominican-republic-haiti.php?icao=MBGT There are inside the eye (southernmost little island) according to visible sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Does anyone have one of those gifs that shows the NHC tracks across each advisory time? I'd love to see one but cannot locate where it would be found, if anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 IF YOU CAN HELP - just got this STAT message from DHS/FEMA: On behalf of the Center for Homeland Defense and Security's Director, Glen Woodbury As you are all very much aware, our Nation has sustained severe flooding and damage as a result of Hurricane Harvey, and we are anticipating major impacts from Hurricanes Irma and possibly Jose. This is the peak of the hurricane season and it is far from over; to this end, we are reaching out to you to help in response and recovery efforts. FEMA is looking to recruit personnel, with an expected deployment of 30 days, in the following areas: Program Area: Skillset Required Individual Assistance: Survivor outreach and communication, case management Logistics: Load and unload trucks; coordinate and deliver resources; track inventory IT: Establish connectivity for facilities; install, track, and manage equipment; configure communications equipment Disaster Survivor Assistance: Engage directly with survivors; demonstrate understanding of available programs; case management Hazard Mitigation: Floodplain management, mitigation strategies for the built environment, flood insurance, FEMA’s grant programs and authorities Disaster Emergency Communications: Set up, operation, and shut down of communications vehicles; installation of voice and data cables; knowledge of radio protocols External Affairs: Communications, Congressional and intergovernmental affairs, media analysis, media relations, tribal affairs, private sector relations Environmental and Historic Preservation: Knowledge of environmental, historic, and floodplain management processes and regulations Human Resources: Human resources specialists and managers Finance: Travel arrangements and budget controls Acquisitions: Contracting officers, purchasing specialists, and procurement specialists If you are available to serve in one or more of these areas, please send your résumé to FEMA-CAREERS at fema.dhs.gov, and please put “Higher Ed” in the subject line. Feel free to also share this request throughout your networks. This is a great opportunity to serve the Nation and support our survivors in this time of need. Heather Issvoran Director, Strategic Communications Contract Support for The Center for Homeland Defense and Security Cell: 831.402.4672 hissvora at nps.edu1 University Circle, Building 220, Room 064 Monterey, CA 93943 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 HF winds 10 miles further from the center than earlier today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jasons said: Is the NHC site not updating? I updated screenshot above your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Cone went west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 There's pretty good damage in Puerto Plata. Highest wind gust was 90 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Current track now is the worst case for MIA to Palm Beach. MIA gets either the eye or eyewall and the city and east coast is in the RUQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 What is everyone's initial storm surge estimates for Miami Beach? Thinking 10-15 ft here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: Current track now is the worst case for MIA to Palm Beach. MIA gets either the eye or eyewall and the city and east coast is in the RUQ. A more NW angle of approach would make for worse surge I imagine as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rdcrds4 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to figure out weather to leave or stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Turks and Caicos http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/tci.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, olafminesaw said: A more NW angle of approach would make for worse surge I imagine as well. This track pretty much drives all the surge into Miami, moving NW, and puts Miami in the Right Upper Quadrant. If it is Cat 4-5 when it comes in and/or is strengthening...I wouldn't be surprised if you saw a surge higher than Andrew, so maybe 15-20. But I will let the professional mets comment on the surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said: Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to figure out weather to leave or stay. Hurricane (80s) gusts Sunday evening through the overnight, mainly out of the N/NNW. Onshore fetch begins Monday AM as winds ease up, so depends on your exposure and distance to water. Track goes West and it's obviously worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said: Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to figure out weather to leave or stay. Ask it here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, rdcrds4 said: Can someone tell me what effect Sarasota would have if the center went right where the 5pm update has it? i know it can change either way but just if it went where the 5pm update has it right up the middle of the state what effect do you think i would get in Sarasota thanks i am just trying to figure out weather to leave or stay. assuming that the track line is the centerline of Irma (no guarantee by any means, but for assumption's sake), the winds would be fairly strong off-shore until the end from the northeast. so it wouldn't be the worst case scenario by any means. but imho, if you're not sure about your safety, don't take a chance with this hurricane and depart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 fwiw, 892 mb is the lowest barometric pressure ever observed in the US, which was during the 1935 hurricane. But that was in the Keys. I *think* the US mainland record is around 920 mb, and if that's the case, Irma might have a shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Noticeable shift west in Irma's track forecast today. Compare last 4 runs of ECMWF EPS for free via menus: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090712-240.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 There might be places where one can get this as one image, but I don't know about them. I stitched the four sector images together to produce this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, 892 mb is the lowest barometric pressure ever observed in the US, which was during the 1935 hurricane. But that was in the Keys. I *think* the US mainland record is around 920 mb, and if that's the case, Irma might have a shot... I know someone measured 909mb in Camille (and was found to be accurate). Not sure if there's anything lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, EastKnox said: There might be places where one can get this as one image, but I don't know about them. I stitched the four sector images together to produce this one. https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: fwiw, 892 mb is the lowest barometric pressure ever observed in the US, which was during the 1935 hurricane. But that was in the Keys. I *think* the US mainland record is around 920 mb, and if that's the case, Irma might have a shot... Camille had unofficial obs as low as 904mb. Inner eyewall just missed me in SE Louisiana. (not my obs!) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Camille_landfall_pressures.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, Wow said: FWIW, the 18z NAM is back further north, about brush the E coast of FL I wonder if the more northerly track is due to the slight jog north that occurred shortly after 12Z. See if the GFS follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.