Major Hurricane Irma

[bobbutts]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In terms of intensity, even as the some of the guidance suggests weakening over the next 24-36 hours, Irma is forecast to traverse waters that have seen hurricanes intensify and sometimes rapidly. Both the GFS (>30 mb forecast deepening) and ECMWF (approximately 15 mb deepening) suggest that Irma could strengthen again as it approaches Florida. Such an outcome would also be consistent with historic climatology. For August-September hurricanes that did not make landfall on either Cuba and/or Hispaniola, 80% retained their strength or grew more intense as they crossed the waters of the Florida Straits (50% grew stronger).  Most of those storms deepened by 10 mb-15 mb.

Taking that into consideration, it still appears likely that Irma will be a Category 4 hurricane upon Florida landfall (best guess:  120 kts – 130 kts). There is some possibility that it could make landfall as a Category 5 storm.

Considering the potential for deepening that you discuss and the current maximum winds of 150kts I deduce you are expecting weakening at some point before the final approach to FL (assuming this favored track).  Do you see much possibility that the storm maintains it's current intensity or increases from here?  Another way to put it is how much confidence do we have in the weakening trend?  I haven't seen much discussion about shear, dry air, or land interaction or anything else that would typically weaken a hurricane, so wondering why this storm's wind's are expected to decrease?

[bdgwx]

4 minutes ago, jviper said:

Which one of these model runs is the most consistent???

Out of those listed the blue lines. That's the UKMET. What's not listed is the ECMWF and the more reliable GEFS and EPS mean tracks.

[JC-CT]

@bobbutts 

 

[Hoosier]

Size comparison between Andrew and Irma

Remains to be seen if it landfalls quite at Andrew's strength, but it's not at all hyperbolic to say there's potential for an impact many times worse.  If one of the really bad scenarios were to unfold, Irma may be a hurricane that is fresh in survivors minds even 50 years from now.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro ensembles have maybe 10 members total near or east of the GFS and hurricane models track 

[Crazy4Wx]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro ensembles have maybe 10 members total near or east of the GFS and hurricane models track 

And about 10 members west of the Op. 

[scottk]

35 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Latest model guidance

 

This would be a huge change considering SC is talking about evacuating the coast right now...

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

We have. I am just pointing out that a west coast hit vs an east coast hit is within the average margin of error of the best performing model at this lead time.

Yeah, anyone in the official hurricane watch area should prepare as if they will see the worst that this storm has to offer.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just saw chaser Mike Theiss interviewed on TV on his way yo Key West to ride out the storm. I understand the chase, the adrenaline, etc but a barrier Island in a possible Cat 5? Isnt there a threshold when you say yeah, maybe I sit this one out a little inland?

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Size comparison between Andrew and Irma

Remains to be seen if it landfalls quite at Andrew's strength, but it's not at all hyperbolic to say there's potential for an impact many times worse.  If one of the really bad scenarios were to unfold, Irma may be a hurricane that is fresh in survivors minds even 50 years from now.

Let me guess...the smaller one is Andrew? Lol (the GIF isn't working)

[5speed6]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me guess...the smaller one is Andrew? Lol (the GIF isn't working)

Correct. In the original, Andrew "fades in." 

[donsutherland1]

Even as the ECMWF took a track that might be somewhat less devastating for Miami than one closer to the City, numerous ECMWF ensemble members still suggest a more catastrophic outcome. Overall, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty, but overall parts of Florida appear to be in line for a severe impact from Irma.

[weatherboy80]

12Z EPS looks clustered just east of Marathon and then up the spine.  Not too far off from the OP run.

[nycwinter]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Let me guess...the smaller one is Andrew? Lol (the GIF isn't working)

irma would swallow up andrew

[medville]

Apologies if this is a duplicate its hard to stay current...

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The thing to remember is there can be 30-40 mile errors at 24 hours.  St. Marteen for example was expected to be around 25 miles south of the eye at 24 hours out.  They ended up almost north of it.  That error wasn't noticeable to most people but an track error like that over florida will be 

True. That could mean a 50 mile difference between a 30 mph wind or 100 mph for an example. But 24 hours before impacting a certin  area at that late stage leaves very little time to get out. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the ECMWF took a track that might be somewhat less devastating for Miami than one closer to the City, numerous ECMWF ensemble members still suggest a more catastrophic outcome. Overall, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty, but overall parts of Florida appear to be in line for a severe impact from Irma.

We should know within 36 hours if the Euro is onto something because this thing will have to start going relatively far west of northwest by then if it's going to verify on it's more westward members 

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as the ECMWF took a track that might be somewhat less devastating for Miami than one closer to the City, numerous ECMWF ensemble members still suggest a more catastrophic outcome. Overall, there's still quite a bit of uncertainty, but overall parts of Florida appear to be in line for a severe impact from Irma.

Don, it looks like your placement of Miami is off. Miami appears to be to the NE of your indication. 

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

47 minutes ago, SnowballNYC said:

You know, I am here mainly to listen to and learn from professionals, because I know so little about Meteorology. It really pisses me off to see people like you posting.

Even I know that flooding will be devastating in Miami Beach. The city now regularly floods from high tides, mitigated by 30 of the strongest pumps in the world pumping the water out. With Irma, Miami will see giant waves, a huge storm surge, a possible 8" of rain, AND close to high tide. That flood water isnt going anywhere quickly at all.

I sincerely apologize if I am wrong, but I don't think I am. I will never forget how bad flooding was here in South Brooklyn during Sandy.

Miami Beach is on a barrier island. I clearly mentioned that surge will be a big problem out there.

 

I'm not sure why my comment struck such a nerve with you. I was merely pointing out that the data and science tends toward surge being less of a problem in Miami than in other coastal areas. I was surprised to learn that myself, but there it is.

 

You can see it yourself here: http://frances-a.cs.fiu.edu/gic/

[McQuackleton]

4 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

True. That could mean a 50 mile difference between a 30 mile mph wind or 100 mph for an example. But 24 hours before impacting a certin  area at that late stage leaves very little time to get out. 

 

Right now it's leaving little time to get out. Even less than 72 hours out. When I lived in South FL, there was not many ways to go and with the amount of people. It will be gridlock. Not to mention the Keys only one way in and out. If a part of the bridge is gone, well you get the idea. Sad reality is about to set in with tracking models leaving very little left of time to change. Sucks.

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Considering the potential for deepening that you discuss and the current maximum winds of 150kts I deduce you are expecting weakening at some point before the final approach to FL (assuming this favored track).  Do you see much possibility that the storm maintains it's current intensity or increases from here?  Another way to put it is how much confidence do we have in the weakening trend?  I haven't seen much discussion about shear, dry air, or land interaction or anything else that would typically weaken a hurricane, so wondering why this storm's wind's are expected to decrease?

I expect Irma to weaken somewhat in the period running from this evening to tomorrow evening/Saturday morning due to interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, though not landfall on either island. Enough of its circulation should interact with land to result in a degree of weakening. Afterward, based on the preponderance of the guidance, I believe it will strengthen up to landfall. This idea is supported by the historic data for storms moving across the warm waters of the Florida Straits.

My thoughts for the winds at landfall are largely based on among the strongest Category 4 storms from historic climatology, as models don't do very well with forecasting specific intensities at specific points in time. If Irma weakens less than I expect, it could well make landfall as a Category 5 storm (I think that's a 20% probability right now, but I might be on the conservative side of things).

[hudsonvalley21]

2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Right now it's leaving little time to get out. Even less than 72 hours out. Living in South FL, there is not many ways to go and with the amount of people. It will be gridlock. Not to mention the Keys only one way in and out. If a part of the bridge is gone, well you get the idea. Sad reality is about to set in with tracking models leaving very little left of time to change. Sucks.

My brother lives in Punta Gorda and experienced hurricane Charlie in 2004. He said he won't ride thru another one like that again.

[Dosh]

18 minutes ago, scottk said:

This would be a huge change considering SC is talking about evacuating the coast right now...

 

If it tracks along the florida coast and maintains Cat 2 or greater, Charleston will still see significant surge, and that's entirely within the greatest probability of storm track and strength right now.

[Raine1212]

When does Recon go back out?

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don, it looks like your placement of Miami is off. Miami appears to be to the NE of your indication. 

On closer inspection, you're right. Miami is at approximately 20.8N 80.2W. I tried to provide a rough approximation using Paint as I didn't have anything else available at the time. The general idea, though, is unchanged. Numerous ECMWF ensemble members would provide what could be a "worst-case" type of situation for Miami and Miami Beach.

[Dunkman]

1 minute ago, Raine1212 said:

When does Recon go back out?

I believe it's 5pm eastern takeoff 6:30 in the storm.

[bobbutts]

7 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

Right now it's leaving little time to get out. Even less than 72 hours out. When I lived in South FL, there was not many ways to go and with the amount of people. It will be gridlock. Not to mention the Keys only one way in and out. If a part of the bridge is gone, well you get the idea. Sad reality is about to set in with tracking models leaving very little left of time to change. Sucks.

If people are able to stay up late the roads should be far less busy overnight.  People like to do things during the daytime. 

[McQuackleton]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

My brother lives in Punta Gorda and experienced hurricane Charlie in 2004. He said he won't ride thru another one like that again.

I have a lot of friends I went to high school with that still live down there, mostly in Palm Beach and Broward, but they all live near the coast. They are leaving thankfully though.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On closer inspection, you're right. Miami is at approximately 20.8N 80.2W. I tried to provide a rough approximation using Paint as I didn't have anything else available at the time. The general idea, though, is unchanged. Numerous ECMWF ensemble members would provide what could be a "worst-case" type of situation for Miami and Miami Beach.

Agree. I pointed that out to hammer your point home, the vast majority of members are at or west of MIA

[weatherboy80]

It will interesting to watch how much it moves back almost due like some of the runs are showing (i.e. latest Euro).  Even without a direct Cuban landfall I'd imagine "some" amount of disruption.