Major Hurricane Irma

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, LandofLincoln said:

CNN is clearly not reporting that themselves. Did you miss the part where the mayor said it?

Just because the mayor said it, doesn't mean CNN et al have to put it on the lower third of their feed.  This is why no one trusts the media.

[Dunkman]

7 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

euro shows a near due west motion starting over the next 24-48 a lot moreso than the gfs. wont have to wait long to see which one has a better handle. for now irma is slightly ne of the nhc track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html

UKMET has had this for days and it wouldn't be the first time the UK led the way for the Euro (and ultimately the storm) on something like this.

[weatherboy80]

If that happens I wonder what kind of weakening we will see before this thing gets to Orlando or the Space Coast.  Charlie even did a number on the Orlando area as a compact storm.   It's inland has quite a bit more trees and some older houses  

[Drz1111]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be.

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

[bluewave]

Euro landfall this run at Cape Sable, FL. Shifted a little further west than recent runs where the EPS mean had it.

 

 

 

[McQuackleton]

1 minute ago, weatherboy80 said:

If that happens I wonder what kind of weakening we will see before this thing gets to Orlando or the Space Coast.  Charlie even did a number on the Orlando area as a compact storm.   It's inland has quite a bit more trees and some older houses  

Unfortunately the Hurricane is huge at this point and is starting to take off as it hits the keys. The N/NE side has the highest winds. If there was another worst case scenario, besides riding up the coast, this would be it.

[Crazy4Wx]

Just now, Drz1111 said:

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

No. It isn't wrong. That surge is coming into MIA and depending upon how wide the eyewall is they may be in the eye or just riding the eyewall the whole time. Right now the models have MIA sitting on either the eastern or western eyewall.

[McQuackleton]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

Sorry, but you're wrong. Miami is on the eyewall the entire time

[larrye]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

You've got to be kidding me. What about the winds in and around the eyewall ... going right up the center of the state? And the tornadic activity?

[otown]

12z Euro would be absolutely devastating for the entire state as opposed to Irma running east and only hitting S.Fla.

[bdgwx]

And here is the wind swath to 96 hours.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

We're most likely looking at a category 5 or very high end category 4 at landfall, from a massive system with a tremendously large wind field. You're being negligent. 

[bdgwx]

Umm...that's a near perfect trajectory to pile waters into Biscayne Bay. That is FAR from a best case scenario for S FL or Miami.

[Polka1]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be.

Seems to me this run would put Miami near RFQ but it would spare them the worst of the onshore winds that would push the surge higher as the storm comes on shore.   Some of the wind projections suggests that it could be far enough west to get them out of the mega RFQ winds too.  Also, while the Gulf coast comes into play, the eye would be over land which should reduce impacts at north, whereas the thing would still be full on all the way into Savannah in the further east scenarios.    In short, less surge all the way up the east coast and more rapid deterioration would be good.

We are talking small projected differences here, but perhaps not as bad as a scenario overall.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Here's some advice.  Don't make stupid posts.  

He obviously has his geography confused. Miami is just about where the blue dot is.

[jbenedet]

This inland track on the euro, being absorbed into a cut off low over the SE US is likely going to bring Jose to the east coast.

[JC-CT]

Just now, jbenedet said:

This inland track on the euro, being absorbed into a cut off low over the SE US is likely going to bring Jose to the east coast.

Heh I was just thinking that it increases the odds of that

[jburns]

5 minutes ago, otown said:

12z Euro would be absolutely devastating for the entire state as opposed to Irma running east and only hitting S.Fla.

Very bad for the Herbert Hoover Dike which is functioning as a dam, something it was never intended to be. A breach would be very bad news.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

This inland track on the euro, being absorbed into a cut off low over the SE US is likely going to bring Jose to the east coast.

I don't know... watching Jose between 120 and 168 has it vacillating around and not moving much... 168 actually has Jose moving SW

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Polka1 said:

Seems to me this run would put Miami near RFQ but it would spare them the worst of the onshore winds that would push the surge higher as the storm comes on shore.   Some of the wind projections suggests that it could be far enough west to get them out of the mega RFQ winds too.  Also, while the Gulf coast comes into play, the eye would be over land which should reduce impacts at north, whereas the thing would still be full on all the way into Savannah in the further east scenarios.    In short, less surge all the way up the east coast and more rapid deterioration would be good.

We are talking small projected differences here, but perhaps not as bad as a scenario overall.

I guess if we're going to nitpick over 10 miles or so you're correct. However if you take the consensus track between the Euro and GFS, it puts the eye right over Miami. 

[jbenedet]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Heh I was just thinking that it increases the odds of that

Yea still plenty of time for that, but it definitely would clear the field more and make an east coast hit more possible.

[Roger Smith]

50 Euro - 30 GFS - 20 GGEM blend would be basically similar to LEK's earlier map. 

Landfall near Key Largo track across Homestead and western Dade County then due north exit FL near Melbourne, north towards GA-SC border. This is a very bad track for all urban areas of s.e. FL.

The one thing about Euro track is that riding the spine would more rapidly weaken the hurricane, can't see it sustaining cat-2 beyond Orlando on that track. However, it does expose larger segments of population to hurricane force winds at some point.

I seem to recall that Katrina's northward turn was modelled too early in eastern GOM until 72h and perhaps 48h before a more accurate track emerged. Still a slight chance of Irma missing all but the Keys and moving into the Gulf (maybe 1 in 20).

Odds at present seem to be:

miss FL east, only landfall Carolinas Monday-Tuesday __ 5%

glancing blow east FL moderate damage, probable major landfall damage SC __ 25%

devastating blow s.e. FL major damage, most likely moderate impacts Carolinas __ 55%

track far enough west to reduce s.e. FL damage to moderate, bad outcome for FMY and TPA __ 10%

track only affects western Keys and then into GOM (still some risk for TPA in this) __ 5%

some different combinations so that these percentages only apply to the FL portion, the Carolinas independent odds are:

30% weak or low-end moderate landfall or near miss scenarios

40% high-end moderate or strong landfall scenarios

30% weak or no impact western track scenarios (these reduce slightly for GA)

[LakeEffectKing]

10 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

This is wrong.  The Euro, verbatim, keeps MIA and FLL out of the strongest winds and dissipates much of the storms energy over the Keys and Everglades.  It would be a best case outcome for a S FL landfall.  Obviously a miss altogether is better still, but if it has to hit you want it to hit west.

Remember - most landfalls don't do that much damage, especially if there's no freshwater flooding.

This post is inaccurate.....

[Drz1111]

6 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

No. It isn't wrong. That surge is coming into MIA and depending upon how wide the eyewall is they may be in the eye or just riding the eyewall the whole time. Right now the models have MIA sitting on either the eastern or western eyewall.

Surge isn't that much of a risk in SE FL, especially in the south part of Dade.  The narrow shelf protect them and the barrier islands aren't built up densely until Key Biscayne.  I mean, yeah, you're sacrificing the Keys, but you'd trade Key West for Miami Beach or Key Biscayne every time.

 

This NJWX85 guy has never met a run that isn't historical.  As SFL landfalls go this is more or less the perfect spot to minimize damage, unless you're an alligator living SE of Everglades City or you have a $5M house in Marathon.

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

This inland track on the euro, being absorbed into a cut off low over the SE US is likely going to bring Jose to the east coast.

Too progressive this run and Jose is far enough North that it will eventually get picked up by the departing trough.

[WildFlower]

16 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

take the middle between Euro and GFS and S.FL is in bad shape. This is going to be an epic disaster with long term social/economic implications for the area.

 

I fully understand officials and other powers involved don't want to create or intensify public panic, but IMO too little is happening too late.   Given the forecast track, strength and size, I'm concerned not enough advance notice/warnings/evac requirements have been or are being implemented.    Though I feel confident officials are following/applying historical protocol...  I fear its just not enough in this case.  Unless something happens damn quick to change what looks inevitable Irma may wind up requiring many changes in the way Canes are dealt with in the future regarding the general public.  This is a whole new ball game, and will likely require a new strategy.  If Irma (ughh I hate that name) turns out to be as bad ass, as expected, this without a doubt will be a game changer.   Hope I'm wrong and my concerns prove unwarranted.

As I type this cable news JUST said people want to get out but can't.  Hoping for the best, and praying for a miracle.  

[jbenedet]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Too progressive this run and Jose is far enough North that it will eventually get picked up by the departing trough.

Yea. 

That said, simply having Irma absorbed into a cut -off in that position makes his outcome more interesting. 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Surge isn't that much of a risk in SE FL, especially in the south part of Dade.  The narrow shelf protect them and the barrier islands aren't built up densely until Key Biscayne.  I mean, yeah, you're sacrificing the Keys, but you'd trade Key West for Miami Beach or Key Biscayne every time.

 

This NJWX85 guy has never met a run that isn't historical.  As SFL landfalls go this is more or less the perfect spot to minimize damage, unless you're an alligator living SE of Everglades City or you have a $5M house in Marathon.

Better check your geography, Miami sits at the North end of Biscayne Bay. Southerly winds of 120kt+ are going to push all that water North and into the Downtown area. At least if the track was further East so that the winds remained Easterly, the barrier islands known as Miami Beach would mitigate a lot of the storm surge potential. 

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

No, this run puts Miami in the RFQ along with FLL and PBI because the winds are out of the South and the mean motion is to the North, so that verbatim the greater Miami area would experience the highest possible winds. If Irma tracks a bit further West, you're still keeping Southeast Florida in the strongest quadrant, and now you're putting places like Tampa, Orlando and Sarasota in play that otherwise wouldn't be.

I don't think PBI or FLL would see as strong a winds with that as they would if it came right over top of them.  They could be over 40 miles from the center on that track conceivably.  The direction of the wind may be worse however 

[USCG RS]

Surge isn't that much of a risk in SE FL, especially in the south part of Dade.  The narrow shelf protect them and the barrier islands aren't built up densely until Key Biscayne.  I mean, yeah, you're sacrificing the Keys, but you'd trade Key West for Miami Beach or Key Biscayne every time.

 

 

 

This NJWX85 guy has never met a run that isn't historical.  As SFL landfalls go this is more or less the perfect spot to minimize damage, unless you're an alligator living SE of Everglades City or you have a $5M house in Marathon.

 

All due respect, you're wrong.