NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Verbatim the track and forward speed is a monster ACE producer. Holy smokes... The Southern Bahamas are historically a very favorable area for rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 It might already be a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold. What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, Hazey said: I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold. What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes. We've seen this numerous times recently, it's really not that unusual. The 903mb is not the important factor, it's that the global's have well organized, large tropical cyclone in a favorable position to impact land in the long range. One thing that's been overlooked is that the MDR has been so dead of recent years, that the islands really haven't experienced a significant hurricane in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: I still can't get over the fact that the gfs takes it down to 903mb. That's like top 10? top 15?. I'm sure it's overdone but that is very aggressive especially that it's 8+ days out. Even the euro down to 940's is no slouch. This will be interesting to watch unfold. What are the chances that after a long non land falling major in the continental US drought, it is broken with multiple hits this year. Yikes. That's usually what happens historically. Hurricanes come in waves, especially landfalling hurricanes. The 1950's is a notorious decade for this phenonenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 From Allan Huffman on Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Well then... 12z EURO CONTROL RUN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 That's a fairly sizable trough in the Eastern US in the Day 6-9 range. Just how long that lingers will determine if this is really a threat to the US. GFS says it picks the system up, Euro says the trough leaves it. Though even on the Euro it looks pretty close to picking it up to me. If the trough is just a little slower/deeper than shown right now this should move out to sea a fairly safe distance from the US. Edit to add: The track difference between the Euro and GFS become pretty sizable even by day 5/6, with the GFS much further north, which makes recurve that much easier when the eastern trough lifts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 Up to 60MPH latest advisory, it's honestly probably already a hurricane based on appearance alone. ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irma Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 ...IRMA INTENSIFYING STEADILY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 31.2W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 31.2 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). The tropical storm is expected to turn slightly toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of speed for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Irma is expected to become a hurricane Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 16.4N 31.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 16.8N 32.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.8N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.2N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 18.2N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 47.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH NHC acknowledges forecast could be conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Edit to add: The track difference between the Euro and GFS become pretty sizable even by day 5/6, with the GFS much further north, which makes recurve that much easier when the eastern trough lifts out. Yeah we should have an idea by the weekend which camp Irma is leaning toward. I think the euro would be a very close shave to the eastern seaboard if it ran longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Up to 60MPH latest advisory, it's honestly probably already a hurricane based on appearance alone. It's got a good curved banding structure and is organizing nicely, but I'd like to see more of a cold CDO before I started thinking hurricane. T#s are pretty low still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 The instability improved over the Tropical Atlantic during the last week so this can be one of the stronger storms of recent years out in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 Big burst of deep convection now over the center, perfect outflow in all quadrants, zero wind shear thanks to the anti-cyclone to the North, no surprise the 18z GFS rapidly intensifies Irma as it becomes a major hurricane by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Down to 896 low on the 18z GFS LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Wow it's really close on the GFShttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017083018&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=545 :shock: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Down to 896 low on the 18z GFS LOL Fish storm Well this would light Twitter up if it wasn't hour 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Yup all the parameters are in place for a monster cane. Possibly threatening Bermuda and the east coast, maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 That's a really deep trough on the GFS near the East coast days 8-9. I wouldn't be shocked if a few ensemble members showed a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 A Cape Verde long-tracking major hurricane with downstream uncertainties and prolonged model drama?Yeah, it's been a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: A Cape Verde long-tracking major hurricane with downstream uncertainties and prolonged model drama? Yeah, it's been a while... Not really. Matthew 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 40 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Down to 896 low on the 18z GFS LOL I'm hesitant to laugh about these things after the extreme rain total verifications in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Not really. Matthew 2016.Matthew was not a Cape Verde hurricane. It was not classified until it reached the Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's a really deep trough on the GFS near the East coast days 8-9. I wouldn't be shocked if a few ensemble members showed a capture. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Tibet said: I'm hesitant to laugh about these things after the extreme rain total verifications in Texas. Model skill is fairly poor with regards to TC intensify, especially beyond 5 days. Important thing is that it shows a well organized system in a favorable pattern and environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Matthew was not a Cape Verde hurricane. It was not classified until it reached the Lesser Antilles. The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane. Quote Cape Verde-type hurricanes are those Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that develop into tropical storms fairly close (<1000 km [600 mi] or so) of the Cape Verde Islands and then become hurricanes before reaching the Caribbean. (That would be my definition, there may be others.) http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A2.html I think this is the most commonly accepted definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane. It needs to develop fairly close to the CV islands to be considered a CV long track cane traditionally, we just haven't had one to track in a loooong while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 The wave originated from Africa, it's a CV hurricane. It did form from an African wave just like Harvey formed from an African wave. Is Harvey a Cape Verde hurricane? I understand your point. But the majority of systems develop out of African waves at some point and their interaction with the ITCZ. The idea here I am stressing is a "Cape Verde long-tracking major hurricane." I believe there is a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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