Major Hurricane Irma

[CoastalWx]

 You guys need to take it easy, on some of the posters asking questions. It's OK to ask questions if someone does not know.  Yes it is perfectly natural, for 100 mile differences to occur in models when you are four or five days out. 

[Jebman]

Check out Masiello on the complexity of the various circulations that are influencing and that will influence where Irma goes:

 

[TPAwx]

The Euro, along with the GEFS, should be enough to convince official/people in Miami Dade to accelerate evac protocols. Very tough around and up to say Ft Myers, which is still east of the projected track but it won't take much of a shift to spell disaster for those areas. Not sure about other areas but here in Tampa gas stations are low or out. It's going to be sheer panic if the Euro or GFS shift West and cause the NHC to adjust the track significantly.

[Raine1212]

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get mentioned anywhere.

[TPAwx]

The motion portion of the NHC 5am discussion gives a good sense of the upcoming dilemma.  Weighting Euro at this point.

 

The initial motion is 290/15.  The hurricane is currently being
steered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next
48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in
the forward speed.  After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough
digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a
break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward.  The timing of
the turn is the most important question and one still filled with
uncertainty.  The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAViGEM are the
models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula.  The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the
middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern
portion of the Florida Peninsula.  The GFS, Canadian, and GFS
Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of
the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.  The
new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the
Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and
it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern
Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into
southern South Carolina by 120 h.   Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

[taylorsweather]

1 minute ago, Raine1212 said:

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get 

mentioned anywhere.

Evans GA?

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

The Euro, along with the GEFS, should be enough to convince official/people in Miami Dade to accelerate evac protocols. Very tough around and up to say Ft Myers, which is still east of the projected track but it won't take much of a shift to spell disaster for those areas. Not sure about other areas but here in Tampa gas stations are low or out. It's going to be sheer panic if the Euro or GFS shift West and cause the NHC to adjust the track significantly.

It seems like there is some confusion among local residents regarding who should evacuate.  I've heard of some able-bodied Floridians evacuating inland locations outside flood prone areas.  I can understand that if you want to avoid potential inconvenience, power outages etc, but it could contribute to shortages and traffic jams etc, which impact coastal residents who really do need to evacuate

[Raine1212]

1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

Evans GA?

Yes

[bluewave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944/photo/1

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).pic.twitter.com/RKorceW6nS

8:20 PM - 6 Sep 2017

 

Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Even though the model spread amongst the 4 major global models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS) was more than it was at 12Z, given that the Euro solution didn't really change from 12Z to 0Z, maintaining that probably catastrophic track right up the SE FL coast, and given the superior Euro verification scores in the 3-4 day timeframe, I'm thinking there's no way the NHC changes their forecast track at 5 am.  i..e., that's a long way of saying I agree with you, lol.  

Yea. But spread aside, I did mention the 0z GEFS members and how that relates to the 0z Euro. 

To me, it's not that important that we have spread; it's knowing what's the main cause of it. We have a potent trough that begins interacting with Irma right as she closely approaches SE FLA. As a result small differences in track --to the south or north-- are being greatly amplified over time. 

But if we determine Irma's position around hr 72 is closest to the 0z Euro--what is the most likely outcome given the UL depiction at that hr across all guidance? To me it results in a first LF close to Miami.

 

 

[Jtm12180]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944/photo/1

#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966).pic.twitter.com/RKorceW6nS

8:20 PM - 6 Sep 2017

 

Previous record was 24 hr set by Supertyphoon Haiyan in 2013.

 

I would think Irma would have been "retired" just for this fact alone.  After what we're seeing from the islands yesterday, it's a given now.  That St. Maarten video someone shared about an hour ago on here is just tearing me up.  Such a beautiful island...damn you Irma!

[TPAwx]

The folks at NHC always do critically important work, but what they do over the next 48 hours and how they communicate it to the public is going to be hugely important. Pretty tremendous levels of responsibility and stress.

[Derecho!]

So EVERY model has had an East-East Northeast bias with Irma so far:

[NJwx85]

I feel strongly that SE FL is going to take a direct and I have felt this for days. If you average out the tracks of the GFS and Euro from the last few days the track is very close to the Northern most keys, over Dade County and then back offshore near Palm Beach with a secondary landfall in SC. I also see no reason why Irma won't be at minimum a high end cat 4 on approach to FL, and it could be much deeper and larger than it currently is.

[LakeEffectKing]

3 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So EVERY model has had an East-East Northeast bias with Irma so far:

I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

[Snowman99]

 

Josh Morgerman‏Verified account @iCyclone  1m1 minute ago

More

7 am. Heading S on Florida Turnpike near Kissimmee. N-bound lanes mobbed. #IRMA the only topic on morning radio. Folks are *freaked*.

[jbenedet]

25 minutes ago, Raine1212 said:

This couldn't not get any closer on head, this is worries me, I don't think anyone is preparing around here. I've noticed we barely get mentioned anywhere.

You can essentially eliminate half of those northern/eastern members based on how off they were between 0z and Irma's current position...

[TPAwx]

GEFS 6z mean looks to be slightly west of the op

 

[JC-CT]

I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)

 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

 

Edit, looks like in the short term that's exactly what it is showing.

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I think this image probably reflects the difficulties in forecasting the speed (i.e. most all have been too slow at those leads), with a touch of north bias in there as well, which is probably tied into the speed errors)
 

If the storm is moving NW, and the models were too slow, shouldn't that cause a SE bias and not a NE bias?

The image posted was while the storm was moving due west (and for awhile, WSW)....

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

GEFS 6z mean looks to be slightly west of the op

Another correction west for the GFS.

That was notably west of the 0z GEFS. Also much less spread on approach to SE Fla.

[JC-CT]

Yeah, I realized that after I posted. Makes sense that the northern component has diminished closer in time.

[mulen]

Locked and loaded folks now i'll pray alot.  locals are staying including myself or as the old song by the impressions goes people get ready theirs a train a coming you don't need ticket you just get on board. LOL.

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, Derecho! said:

So EVERY model has had an East-East Northeast bias with Irma so far:

 

You can see how the EA has been off the charts positive recently. So the record ridge which resulted in the historic WSW motion has kept this on the south side of the forecast envelope.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/ea_ts.shtml

[WildFlower]

29 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It seems like there is some confusion among local residents regarding who should evacuate.  I've heard of some able-bodied Floridians evacuating inland locations outside flood prone areas.  I can understand that if you want to avoid potential inconvenience, power outages etc, but it could contribute to shortages and traffic jams etc, which impact coastal residents who really do need to evacuate

From what I've been seeing you are correct.  

[winterymix]

10 hours ago, toller65 said:

I was just browsing for some data on Miami topography and ran across this http://en-us.topographic-map.com/places/Miami-7034739/ . 

It would appear to me that if storm surge from Irma exceeds 10 feet, a very high percentage of the city of Miami will be inundated by salt water...

Question for the experts:   Shouldn't we model/forecast probability for the most worrisome possibility?

To me, the chance of a 15-20 foot storm surge/storm swell in the Miami area is the biggest worry.  Experts:  what are the

probabilities that so much of the Miami area could get such significant inundation?  Why would people not evacuate in areas where they could likely get inundated?

[Mountain_Patch]

4 minutes ago, winterymix said:

Question for the experts:   Shouldn't we model/forecast probability for the most worrisome possibility?

To me, the chance of a 15-20 foot storm surge/storm swell in the Miami area is the biggest worry.  Experts:  what are the

probabilities that so much of the Miami area could get such significant inundation?

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ocean_guidance.php?model=ETSS&area=GOM_EAST&plot=srg&loop=1#contents

http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1

[jaxjagman]

3 minutes ago, WildFlower said:

From what I've been seeing you are correct.  

So the people by the coast should leave first and the people inland should wait?

[Raine1212]

The weather channel just said Irma is 700 miles wide, Is that true?

[Wow]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another correction west for the GFS.

That was notably west of the 0z GEFS. Also much less spread on approach to SE Fla.

Looks like 0z GFS was a fluke run.  There are no GEFS members that far east now.