Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Those members that swing out gain a lot more latitude by the time it reaches 75W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Model lurker Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 44 minutes ago, Quincy said: Floyd did, but it was also at least a couple hundred miles farther north and the upper level pattern isn't terribly similar. (Although if you shift Floyd's track W/SW, you'd probably see a similar curve with Irma) Floyd hit NC causing extensive destruction... iirc, at the time it was the largest peacetime evacuation ever ordered (FL, southeast, etc.). More or less paralleled the coast, came onshore as a slightly weaker storm near Oak Island, NC, and proceeded northward, causing extensive flooding in NC all the way up to NY. If Floyd flirted with Florida before heading north, then Irma is all-out seducing her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 00z GEFS forecast low positions at +84 hours, 07/00 via WeatherBELL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 0z Euro starting...at 00hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I really want to be within the 72 to 48 hour timeframes before I even start to get comfortable with the major model players concerning South Florida. Even with Gulf Stream flight data, balloons, etc., the geography of peninsula, shape of coastline and the sharp turn at play is just within too great an error. Two days out and we may still be struggling with southern peninsula landfall. This remains on the extremes of forecasting. We may have horror stories from evacuations and deal with regret, but we'll deal with that later. If I resided in southern Florida, I would have evacuated if told to do so, no regrets. Too much uncertainty and too great a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I'd really keep an eye on the location in regards to the NHC forecast points. Any quicker than expected gain of longitude without a quicker than expected gain of latitude all but seals it for south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro identical to 12z through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Euro identical to 12z through 48 NE at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Out to 72, barely north of 12z pretty much the same. Not looking good for SOFLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Shade north and 7mb stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Quincy said: NE at hour 60. Ever so slightly. Really almost identical through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 NE trough looks a hair more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 About 30 miles NE and 10 mb stronger at hour 78. Approaching the eastern keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Center on the central FL coast at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 At 96, 0z is more NW. Has Irma over the port st lucie area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agrayson12 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: Don, excellent summary. One note the Great Miami Hurricane I think you are referring to was n 1926. The others for reference lol... Saw the pic of the 1926 and scared the crap out of me for a brief moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirkan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Op has LF on FL at 96 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017090700&fh=96&r=caribbean&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griizzcoat Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Figured because despite starting a bit ne at first, what was important was that the NE trough was a bit more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS went east, Euro went west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro is absolutely apocalyptic for the Miame-Dade area- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Griizzcoat said: Miami zoom: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Euro takes Irma straight up the Coast line into GA. At 120 Irma in SE GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Rides up coast and looks to stay inland. East coast of Florida from Marathon Key to Orlando gets hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Pretty much a worst case scenario for Miami proper with that track coming in just south of downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Catastrophic run for the entire East coast of FL and even GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I’ve got friends in FL, not near Miami thank god more closer to Daytona somewhat inland but this forecast is crucial. Isn’t the Euro basically the best at this range? Should we be favoring the Euro over the GFS and other models at this point? What are the differences that are causing this 50-75 mile difference in track? Got to decide whether they need to go or can hunker down and wait it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 LF loc looked really close to where the tightest clusters were on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, sirkan said: Op has LF on FL at 96 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017090700&fh=96&r=caribbean&dpdt= I'm having a hard time accepting the (relatively) low wind speeds I'm seeing here. Can someone with really good Cane knowledge please take a close look at this link and let me know if this verifies, wind speeds etc.. Please??? AND Thank you!!! I must be misunderstanding something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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