Major Hurricane Irma

[bluewave]

Great agreement between the EPS and GEFS on a position off the SE Coast in about 10 days.

 

 

 

[RevWarReenactor]

No one knows, any guess is pure speculation, but I'd say never argue against climo and climo says "Fishy". People who say "Oh a USA landfall seems likely" are misguided.

How many times do we have to track a Hurricane to know that everything can look great for a USA landfall and then something changes just like that and out it goes? It has happened SOOO many times.

So yeah, right now, I'd lean towards fish, never deny climo. That doesn't mean it can't be a threat, its just not as likely.

[Paragon]

5 hours ago, CaWx said:

I have noticed, usually leading up to potenial landfalls, if there is a monster west ridge + week leading up to hurricane is below average temperatures in the east, the pattern usually holds and trough usually prevents a direct landfall. This ridge is no joke, many places in the west are going to break all time September highs, especially here in California. This ridge is going to kick some down stream troughing, no doubt about that. 

I see the forecasts for Portland have them getting close to 100 before another cool down late next week.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A Category 4 hurricane in New York State (most likely Long Island) would be a very rare, but probably not impossible event.
If one runs a power distribution on land falling hurricane impacts in the Virginia-Maine area, the numbers would suggest approximately a one-in-200-year case. Obviously Virginia would be far more favored than New York.

Although no Category 4 hurricanes affected this area (VA-ME) since 1851, it is plausible that the 1821 Hurricane that made second landfall near Cape May, NJ might have been at Category 4 strength when it moved across the Virginia Capes. 

Moreover, one storm was observed just below Category 4 strength around 40°N latitude. Gerda (1969) had 110-knot sustained winds as far north as 40.1°N, 69.9°W.
The 1635 New England hurricane may have rivaled the 1938 hurricane's intensity (105 knot sustained winds). There is also some sedimentary evidence of an even greater hurricane that impacted New Jersey northward sometime in the 1278-1446 time frame, but other variables e.g., a strike at high tide might offer alternative explanations.

The highest end modeling supports a max of 145 mph winds for our area, Long Island is modeled up to Cat 4 surge levels.  It's probably a 1 in 500 year event but we just had one of those down in Texas.

[allgame830]

If some of you think that with a massive ridge over the Atlantic is going to aid in this hurricane from going OTS you have another guess coming...... just saying...

[LakeEffectKing]

8 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

If some of you think that with a massive ridge over the Atlantic is going to aid in this hurricane from going OTS you have another guess coming...... just saying...

....A "massive ridge" being modeled.....you know "modeled massive ridges" 8-10 days out sometimes aren't so massive???...just saying....

[MJO812]

Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

....A "massive ridge" being modeled.....you know "modeled massive ridges" 8-10 days out sometimes aren't so massive???

Just like the Euro

Ridge on the 0z run is a lot weaker than the ridge on the 12z run.

[jbenedet]

Not sure why anyone would be weighing in heavily on op runs beyond 200 hrs....

6z GEFS showed a marked shift west versus 0z, and the vast majority of members indicate a US landfall. Beyond 200 hrs the GEFS shows the model divergences in the form of three camps--one that heads towards Fla, another (the largest) that heads towards OBX and into SNE, and lastly a small cluster that heads towards Bermuda and recurves towards eastern New England.

0z EPS also points to a US landfall, with minimal risk of an escape ots.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A Category 4 hurricane in New York State (most likely Long Island) would be a very rare, but probably not impossible event.
If one runs a power distribution on land falling hurricane impacts in the Virginia-Maine area, the numbers would suggest approximately a one-in-200-year case. Obviously Virginia would be far more favored than New York.

Although no Category 4 hurricanes affected this area (VA-ME) since 1851, it is plausible that the 1821 Hurricane that made second landfall near Cape May, NJ might have been at Category 4 strength when it moved across the Virginia Capes. 

Moreover, one storm was observed just below Category 4 strength around 40°N latitude. Gerda (1969) had 110-knot sustained winds as far north as 40.1°N, 69.9°W.
The 1635 New England hurricane may have rivaled the 1938 hurricane's intensity (105 knot sustained winds). There is also some sedimentary evidence of an even greater hurricane that impacted New Jersey northward sometime in the 1278-1446 time frame, but other variables e.g., a strike at high tide might offer alternative explanations.

That 1821 Hurricane was a 4 at its NJ landfall and either a 3 or a 4 when it hit Jamaica Bay

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane

 

The hurricane accelerated northeastward, and passed over the Hampton Roads area early on September 3. After crossing the Chesapeake Bay, the cyclone traversed the Delmarva Peninsula near the Atlantic coastline,^[5] and at around 1500 UTC the eye passed directly over Cape Henlopen, Delaware; a thirty-minute period of calm was reported. It continued across the Delaware Bay and later passed over Cape May, New Jersey, where a fifteen-minute calm was reported.^[6]Modern researchers estimate it was a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane upon striking New Jersey, one of the few hurricanes to hit the state.^[7][8] Moving ashore at very low tide,^[2] it paralleled the state's coastline just inland, and after exiting into Lower New York Bay the hurricane made landfall on New York City at around 1930 UTC on September 3; this makes it the only major hurricane to directly hit the city.^[1] A minimal hurricane in 1893 also made landfall on what later became part of New York City.^[9] One modern researcher estimates the hurricane was moving at a forward speed of 35 mph (55 km/h), and upon moving ashore had a pressure of 965 mbar.^[1]

 

 

Upon making landfall on Cape May, New Jersey, the cyclone produced a 5 foot (1.5 m) storm surge on the Delaware Bay side of the city.^[12] Lasting for several hours, the hurricane-force winds were described as "[blowing] with great violence",^[6] causing widespread devastation across the region. In Little Egg Harbor, its passage caused damage to the port. Strong winds reached as far inland as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where winds of over 40 mph (60 km/h) downed trees and chimneys; in the city, precipitation accrued to 3.92 inches (99.6 mm). Further to the north, the hurricane destroyed a windmill at Bergen Point, New Jersey.^[12] Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.^[2]

The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park, a record only broken 191 years later by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan Islandwas completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.^[13] However, few deaths were reported in the city, since the flooding affected neighborhoods much less populated than today.^[14] The hurricane brought light rainfall as it passed New York City, though strong winds left severe damage across the city. High tides occurred along the Hudson River. Strong waves and winds blew many ships ashore along Long Island. One ship sank, killing 17 people. Along Long Island, the winds destroyed several buildings and left crops destroyed.^[12]

[NJwx85]

Looks like Irma is undergoing an ERC. Microwave imagery shows this, although I cannot paste it since it keeps showing an old loop.

 

[Derecho!]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Not sure why anyone would be weighing in heavily on op runs beyond 200 hrs....

6z GEFS showed a marked shift west versus 0z, and the vast majority of members indicate a US landfall.

0z EPS also points to a US landfall, with minimal risk of an escape ots.

I mostly have stopped looking at op runs for TCs completely.   Either the ensemble mean of the GFS or EC, or the consensus models like TVCA.

One thing I've noticed is folks who are mostly snow weenies focus on OP runs and have a binary view of model conflict (one model is "right" and the other is "wrong") and are pretty much unaware of the fact that consensus models and ensemble means destroy op models for TC forecasting. 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

....A "massive ridge" being modeled.....you know "modeled massive ridges" 8-10 days out sometimes aren't so massive???

It's very rare for these things to work out - you basically need a thread the needle track north of the Va capes unless you have some very anomalous blocking like what Sandy had.

[NortheastPAWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Not sure why anyone would be weighing in heavily on op runs beyond 200 hrs....

6z GEFS showed a marked shift west versus 0z, and the vast majority of members indicate a US landfall.

0z EPS also points to a US landfall, with minimal risk of an escape ots.

Thank you. Geez one model cycle and suddenly everyone's convinced we'll see a fish.

[Paragon]

Just now, Derecho! said:

I mostly have stopped looking at op runs for TCs completely.   Either the ensemble mean of the GFS or EC, or the consensus models like TVCA.

One thing I've noticed is folks who are mostly snow weenies focus on OP runs and have a binary view of model conflict (one model is "right" and the other is "wrong") and are pretty much unaware of the fact that consensus models and ensemble means destroy op models for TC forecasting. 

The only certain thing you can say about modeling is what you said earlier, the best place to be for safety is where the CMC projects landfall to be

 

[NJwx85]

[LakeEffectKing]

I think it's worth reiterating....models are tools for meteorologists.  And have great value, especially in the shorter ranges.  But at lead times of 8-10 days, they ALL have much less value just because of time.  The synoptic setup at those leads, and the forecasting abilities (and thus value) of any model are greatly diminished.  I don't care if it's the Euro, NAVGEM, GFS....all are very susceptible to large errors at 10 days out....especially with the fragile conditions that are required to get a LF north of Hatteras.  Fish or EC LF....all are equally on the table, and will be for several more days.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Thank you. Geez one model cycle and suddenly everyone's convinced we'll see a fish.

Joaquin is fresh in my memory. Storms just have a way of escaping land. 12z models should be interesting.

[larrye]

13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Thank you. Geez one model cycle and suddenly everyone's convinced we'll see a fish.

And there are some that are convinced that we see a US landfall also. We're 7-10 days out.

[larrye]

7 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I think it's worth reiterating....models are tools for meteorologists.  And have great value, especially in the shorter ranges.  But at lead times of 8-10 days, they ALL have much less value just because of time.  The synoptic setup at those leads, and the forecasting abilities (and thus value) of any model are greatly diminished.  I don't care if it's the Euro, NAVGEM, GFS....all are very susceptible to large errors at 10 days out....especially with the fragile conditions that are required to get a LF north of Hatteras.  Fish or EC LF....all are equally on the table, and will be for several more days.

Exactly.

[RevWarReenactor]

17 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

Thank you. Geez one model cycle and suddenly everyone's convinced we'll see a fish.

Climo> models 200 hrs out.

A study should be done, I bet Climo wins a lot of the time.

Just seen it so many times before where models and conditions look perfect for a landfalling US hurricane and it changes on a dime, finds a weakness, and goes out to sea.

[RevWarReenactor]

18 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Joaquin is fresh in my memory. Storms just have a way of escaping land. 12z models should be interesting.

Yes, that one was down to the wire, the NAM still showed a landfall 12 hours before the storm would hit. People were having satellite hallucinations. But in the end, they go out. Not all the time; but as of now, climo can't be denied.

People who are like "US mainland hit is looking likely" "Cat 4 coming to NYC!!!" It is ridiculous.

[MillvilleWx]

I think it's worth reiterating....models are tools for meteorologists.  And have great value, especially in the shorter ranges.  But at lead times of 8-10 days, they ALL have much less value just because of time.  The synoptic setup at those leads, and the forecasting abilities (and thus value) of any model are greatly diminished.  I don't care if it's the Euro, NAVGEM, GFS....all are very susceptible to large errors at 10 days out....especially with the fragile conditions that are required to get a LF north of Hatteras.  Fish or EC LF....all are equally on the table, and will be for several more days.

Well said. And you can see it's just tweaks in either the strength of storm, ridge strength/placement and/or trough evolution that cause a significant change in the long term outcome of where she goes. This is proof of the highly sensitive nature of tropical systems. I mean, we're talking about a potential Cat 4/5 being maneuvered around by multiple synoptic scale features. It's tough to comprehend that, but that's the nature of mid-level cyclones as opposed to deeper mid latitude lows.

As far as specifics on the pattern, until we get a clearer picture on evolution of trough with recurvature of the typhoon in WPAC, we're likely to see some dancing in model guidance with back and forth hits, misses and scrapes.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That 1821 Hurricane was a 4 at its NJ landfall and either a 3 or a 4 when it hit Jamaica Bay

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1821_Norfolk_and_Long_Island_hurricane

 

The hurricane accelerated northeastward, and passed over the Hampton Roads area early on September 3. After crossing the Chesapeake Bay, the cyclone traversed the Delmarva Peninsula near the Atlantic coastline,^[5] and at around 1500 UTC the eye passed directly over Cape Henlopen, Delaware; a thirty-minute period of calm was reported. It continued across the Delaware Bay and later passed over Cape May, New Jersey, where a fifteen-minute calm was reported.^[6]Modern researchers estimate it was a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane upon striking New Jersey, one of the few hurricanes to hit the state.^[7][8] Moving ashore at very low tide,^[2] it paralleled the state's coastline just inland, and after exiting into Lower New York Bay the hurricane made landfall on New York City at around 1930 UTC on September 3; this makes it the only major hurricane to directly hit the city.^[1] A minimal hurricane in 1893 also made landfall on what later became part of New York City.^[9] One modern researcher estimates the hurricane was moving at a forward speed of 35 mph (55 km/h), and upon moving ashore had a pressure of 965 mbar.^[1]

 

 

Upon making landfall on Cape May, New Jersey, the cyclone produced a 5 foot (1.5 m) storm surge on the Delaware Bay side of the city.^[12] Lasting for several hours, the hurricane-force winds were described as "[blowing] with great violence",^[6] causing widespread devastation across the region. In Little Egg Harbor, its passage caused damage to the port. Strong winds reached as far inland as Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where winds of over 40 mph (60 km/h) downed trees and chimneys; in the city, precipitation accrued to 3.92 inches (99.6 mm). Further to the north, the hurricane destroyed a windmill at Bergen Point, New Jersey.^[12] Though the hurricane struck at low tide, it produced a storm surge of over 29 feet (9 m) along several portions of the New Jersey coastline, causing significant overwash.^[2]

The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park, a record only broken 191 years later by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan Islandwas completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.^[13] However, few deaths were reported in the city, since the flooding affected neighborhoods much less populated than today.^[14] The hurricane brought light rainfall as it passed New York City, though strong winds left severe damage across the city. High tides occurred along the Hudson River. Strong waves and winds blew many ships ashore along Long Island. One ship sank, killing 17 people. Along Long Island, the winds destroyed several buildings and left crops destroyed.^[12]

For the 1821 hurricane, I referenced Category 4 status for Virginia, as there is some dispute as to whether it was Category 4 upon making NJ landfall. From the material you posted, " Modern researchers estimate it was a Category 3 or Category 4 hurricane upon striking New Jersey, one of the few hurricanes to hit the state." Of course, I'm referring to the larger VA-ME region.

[SnowGoose69]

I always tell people who start worrying in FL and NY days out every time that in the most favorable summer east coast landfall pattern we ever had and one of the most active Atlantic seasons ever we had zero east coast landfalls.   That shows you only about 10% of these ever make it to the US and maybe only 7-8% as a hurricane. 

[OSUmetstud]

There i still some model skill at day 10 days over climo.  Any specific model solution should be taken with a grain of salt obviously.  

 

 

[NavarreDon]

24 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I think it's worth reiterating....models are tools for meteorologists.  And have great value, especially in the shorter ranges.  But at lead times of 8-10 days, they ALL have much less value just because of time.  The synoptic setup at those leads, and the forecasting abilities (and thus value) of any model are greatly diminished.  I don't care if it's the Euro, NAVGEM, GFS....all are very susceptible to large errors at 10 days out....especially with the fragile conditions that are required to get a LF north of Hatteras.  Fish or EC LF....all are equally on the table, and will be for several more days.

This could be a header for all the sub forums on this board! With that being said I do see some trends. While tracks and forecasts are subject to change it seems like GOM for Irma is less likely. I would like to hear some thoughts on this.

[Paragon]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I always tell people who start worrying in FL and NY days out every time that in the most favorable summer east coast landfall pattern we ever had and one of the most active Atlantic seasons ever we had zero east coast landfalls.   That shows you only about 10% of these ever make it to the US and maybe only 7-8% as a hurricane. 

It seems that in the most prolific hurricane seasons, you get mostly Gulf Coast landfalls.  Think about the seasons when you had landfalls up here, most of them were not very active seasons overall  (1938, 1944, 1954, 1960, 1976, 1985, 1991).  

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Yes, that one was down to the wire, the NAM still showed a landfall 12 hours before the storm would hit. People were having satellite hallucinations. But in the end, they go out. Not all the time; but as of now, climo can't be denied.

People who are like "US mainland hit is looking likely" "Cat 4 coming to NYC!!!" It is ridiculous.

Hopefully, any sensationalism in the media will be avoided and, where present, be ignored for the time being. It's way too soon to speculate on landfall details. At this time, the general point that there is the potential for a strong hurricane to make U.S. landfall is about as far as one can go. That potential may be somewhat higher than climatology given the forecast pattern, but landfall remains uncertain. Outcomes, including scenarios where Irma would recurve safely away from the CONUS, remain on the table. By the middle of next week, details including whether landfall is likely, possible locations, and Irma's strength could begin to fall into place with a higher degree of confidence.

[NJwx85]

Most of the 00z GGEM ensembles take Irma into Southern FL/Gulf or have East coast landfall or close calls. Clearly two distinct camps like we've seen on the rest of the guidance.

[NJwx85]

Kind of an interesting scenario on the NAVGEM with that cut off low, Irma near the islands and presumably Jose in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.