OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jpeters3 said: What becomes annoying are the "I don't believe the intensity forecast because there is a blemish in the IR presentation" posts. Sounds like he was just pointing out a feature in the IR. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The entire eye is in range of PR radar - why are people basing ERC analysis on IR and MW when radar is in range? Radar clearly shows the outer concentric eyewall has failed to take over and degenerated into a spiral feeding the original eyewall. Look at multiple tilts - no outer eyewall anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: The entire eye is in range of PR radar - why are people basing ERC analysis on IR and MW when radar is in range? Radar clearly shows the outer concentric eyewall has failed to take over and degenerated into a spiral feeding the original eyewall. Look at multiple tilts - no outer eyewall anymore. It keeps fighting off that major ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Crazy4Wx said: It keeps fighting off that major ERC. Irma has defied several TC odds thus far. Anything she does or fights off no longer surprises me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 All signs point to the 5:00 am NHC update as the likely issuance of Hurricane watches for SFL. If Irma grows size wise tonight as some have speculated. Will the NHC go with an earlier time to issue?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: The entire eye is in range of PR radar - why are people basing ERC analysis on IR and MW when radar is in range? Radar clearly shows the outer concentric eyewall has failed to take over and degenerated into a spiral feeding the original eyewall. Look at multiple tilts - no outer eyewall anymore. that's an interpretation but i am not sure it's the correct one...go look at some of the dualpol products like spectrum width and specific differential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Maybe JB should look at the Euro verification for Irma so far vs. Matthew. He's right about GFS being NE, but way off on Euro too far W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: Umm, we still don't know he actually made that awful map. the poster just put Joe Bastardi on top of some random awful forecast map. After looking, it should be noted that Joe Bastardi tweeted the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 that's an interpretation but i am not sure it's the correct one...go look at some of the dualpol products like spectrum width and specific differential...Pretty much. Though with time the OEW has struggled. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deaglesnest Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Z-Cast said: Maybe JB should look at the Euro verification for Irma so far vs. Matthew. He's right about GFS being NE, but way off on Euro too far W. I actually posted as much as a reply to that tweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Whats that thing spinning around inside the eye? CC and ZDR say its hydrometeorological, but why is it there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Pretty much. Though with time the OEW has struggled. We'll see... yeah it's weird for sure, and i can see how that guy thinks it's a spiral in and combine scenario, but i am just not ready to declare the failure of this ERC. we'll know soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Whats that thing spinning around inside the eye? CC and ZDR say its hydrometeorological, but why is it there? Believe it is one of the mesovortices... Just my interpretation, not sure what else it could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: Has Irma set the record yet for longest sustained Cat 5? Bueller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 163kt FL winds measured in NE eye wall... (near 190mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Believe it is one of the mesovortices... Just my interpretation, not sure what else it could be. couplet a few scans back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, tacoman25 said: Bueller? No I don't think so, I think the longest was a hurricane that hit Cuba in the 30s and it was a Cat 5 for 3 or 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, tacoman25 said: Bueller? Yes, it beat Hurricane Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 011700 1922N 06614W 6951 02540 9303 +130 +120 146144 158 126 000 03 011730 1923N 06613W 6986 02574 9423 +113 +101 146161 163 131 000 03 011800 1924N 06612W 6957 02668 9475 +119 +083 143161 163 126 000 03 011830 1925N 06611W 6978 02696 9541 +107 +093 140151 158 121 000 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 yeah it's weird for sure, and i can see how that guy thinks it's a spiral in and combine scenario, but i am just not ready to declare the failure of this ERC. we'll know soon.I wouldn't either, with the IEW still slowly fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I wouldn't either, with the IEW still slowly fading. Apologies for jumping in with such a busy thread but at this point, an ERC failure would be a good thing for the US or bad?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: yeah it's weird for sure, and i can see how that guy thinks it's a spiral in and combine scenario, but i am just not ready to declare the failure of this ERC. we'll know soon. Yep, I fear I may have been premature in writing it off, OEW has re-asserted itself. But I am safe to say I am not alone - recon also didn't note concentric eyewalls - but I do see double wind max on the outbound SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Whats that thing spinning around inside the eye? CC and ZDR say its hydrometeorological, but why is it there? Probably a pinwheel inside the the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The area of 100+ kt winds and even 137+ kt winds in the northeastern eye wall is remarkably large compared to what we normally see. Of course this shouldn't be too surprising I suppose, as we don't get a hurricane the strength of Irma very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, nycemt123 said: Apologies for jumping in with such a busy thread but at this point, an ERC failure would be a good thing for the US or bad? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Probably bad - as long as the ERC doesn't get disrupted, typically an ERC leads to strengthening after about a day +/-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, Random Chaos said: Yep, I fear I may have been premature in writing it off, OEW has re-asserted itself. But I am safe to say I am not alone - recon also didn't note concentric eyewalls - but I do see double wind max on the outbound SFMR. lots of people are befuddled. we just dont have much data on storms like this. haiyan did weird ERC stuff too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 9 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Whats that thing spinning around inside the eye? CC and ZDR say its hydrometeorological, but why is it there? I will try to answer your question. Think of the hurricane as a massive heat engine. It ingests heat and moisture at the lower levels and circulates that into the center where it is lifted up in the eyewall and then dispersed through the outflow of the storm in a clockwise manner. The feature you are seeing is a mesovortice rotating around the edge of the eyewall in a counter clockwise manner. It really looks like an engine in motion when you look at it in that manner. In any case there is a great deal more going on here then you might see at first glance. The mesovortice is analogous to a suction vortice found in a multiple vortice tornado. The winds in these features are typically higher than those in the surrounding storm. They are typically found only in intense cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 FWIW, the Hurricane Hunter they were interviewing on CNN said that it was undergoing an ERC. Probably as good a source as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 35 minutes ago, tacoman25 said: Has Irma set the record yet for longest sustained Cat 5? World record is Typhoon Nancy 5.5 days Cat 5, but I believe Irma has surpased Allen for the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Half of the inner core is gone per radar. Outer core is slowly taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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