Major Hurricane Irma

[Michigander]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yeah I think 1,000 deaths is very inaccurate. That is an irresponsible tweet.

I listened live to the Prime Minister's report from Barbuda and his sat phone audio quality was terrible. Sounded to me like he said "1 fatality". No one should take the 1,000 report seriously until we get more info. Hopefully it's wrong.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Just now, hazwoper said:

There are 1,638 people on the entire island.  Not likely.

Was likely a radio flub that made it sound like 1,000

[Snowberd]

Holy ****, A THOUSAND people? I knew it would be bad, but not that bad

Reading the responses to that tweet the 1,000 seemed to be referring to the number homes destroyed, not lives lost


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[SP]

video out of St Martin reminds me of tsunami 

We are going to see some very sad and shocking media over the coming days.  

 

I hope the Barbuda info was incorrect.

[canderson]

The 1,000 Barbuda death number IS NOT CORRECT. The tweet later repeatedly mentions the line was awful and they weren't clear on that number and likely meant buildings. 

Only 1 fatality reported to date. 

[TPAwx]

SIAP

Good read, with helpful context.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/?amp=1

[SP]

18 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Richard Branson hasn't tweeted in almost 8 hours-his last tweet came about 3-4 hours before his tiny island went into the eye.  He also tweeted a photo with what looks like a bunch of teens/twenty-somethings he was staying with.  

I was watching the radar and his island took about as bad a hit as one could draw up.  When you compare the scenes emerging from other islands that did the same, one has to wonder if he had a survivable structure/bunker. St Martin looks bad.

[Hurricane Agnes]

8 minutes ago, Michigander said:

I listened live to the Prime Minister's report from Barbuda and his sat phone audio quality was terrible. Sounded to me like he said "1 fatality". No one should take the 1,000 report seriously until we get more info. Hopefully it's wrong.

It is wrong.  Have been listening and they repeated that it was just 1 fatality and are trying to get that info out there to correct the other info.  The PM had been on a Sat phone when he had originally called.

Back on topic - Jose just declared a Hurricane but am wondering how much Irma has contributed to upwelling and SST cooling.  If I am reading this right, it looks like it is cooler closer to the coast of FL vs by the Gulf Stream and wonder if it will weaken as it approaches that area if it stays just off the coast-

 

[McQuackleton]

5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 18.8°N 65.4°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[No snow for you]

1 minute ago, SP said:

I was watching the radar and his island took about as bad a hit as one could draw up.  When you compare the scenes emerging from other islands that did the same, one has to wonder if he had a survivable structure/bunker. St Martin looks bad.

He's in a concrete win cellar. I doubt they have power though. 

[Crazy4Wx]

2 minutes ago, SP said:

I was watching the radar and his island took about as bad a hit as one could draw up.  When you compare the scenes emerging from other islands that did the same, one has to wonder if he had a survivable structure/bunker. St Martin looks bad.

Necker Island is a island and is located in British Virgin Islands. The estimate terrain elevation above seal level is 16 meters. Looks a the highest point is 25 meters.

 

One hopes that the surge + waves didn't come in higher than that.

[Drz1111]

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

It is wrong.  Have been listening and they repeated that it was just 1 fatality and are trying to get that info out there to correct the other info.  The PM had been on a Sat phone when he had originally called.

Back on topic - Jose just declared a Hurricane but am wondering how much Irma has contributed to upwelling and SST cooling.  If I am reading this right, it looks like it is cooler closer to the coast of FL vs by the Gulf Stream -

 

North of PBI, its always cooler near the coast - that's the shelf water / countercurrent running down from the north.  South of PBI the GS runs within a few miles of the coast (and there's barely any shelf, which is why surge is relatively low).  In that region even cat 5 storms can intensify basically all the way until landfall.  Tons of TCHP in those near-shore waters.

[DCAlexandria]

Necker Island is a island and is located in British Virgin Islands. The estimate terrain elevation above seal level is 16 meters. Looks a the highest point is 25 meters.

 

One hopes that the surge + waves didn't come in higher than that.

75 feet? Would hope not


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[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

North of PBI, its always cooler near the coast - that's the shelf water / countercurrent running down from the north.  South of PBI the GS runs within a few miles of the coast (and there's barely any shelf, which is why surge is relatively low).  In that region even cat 5 storms can intensify basically all the way until landfall.  Tons of TCHP in those near-shore waters.

Makes sense.  Interesting that you have that counter-current.

[McQuackleton]

5pm Advisory

[cwc]

24 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

As far as surge goes in Florida, I am worried that even it does weaken, that this will be like Katrina and produce a cat 5 level surge even if it landfalls at sat a cat 3.

Andrew's surge was 16.9', and that was on a direct westerly course.  Fortunately, the only thing the surge really damaged was the BK HQ.  Of course, been a ton of development on the coast since Andrew.

I don't see surge being a huge problem if FL - mostly wind and general flooding.  Not Katrina or Harvey type flooding though.  E coast of FL is a different animal

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Hoosier said:

Damn.  Wasn't that island there near 73W Inagua island also hit directly by a cane about 10 years ago?  

[jacindc]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

 

Putting that M right smack dab over Miami/FLL is going to ratchet the anxiety level up considerably.

 

[78Blizzard]

That irresponsible tweet appears to have been deleted.

[jpeters3]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I know I asked this question earlier and was abruptly told no, but it does appear that a very large intense band of convection is forming around the eyewall. Looks to me as if a concentric eyewall is forming, but please excuse me if I'm incorrect. 

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

somebody here had said they knew people on Tortola

https://twitter.com/whetherPROOF/status/905490888922673152

[NJwx85]

Just now, jpeters3 said:

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

I'm not sure, I switched over to composite and just looks like very intense banding around the eye, hence I deleted my post. 

With the recent pressure drop I doubt we're about to see an ERC. 

Anyway looks like both recon planes in Irma are headed home.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

somebody here had said they knew people on Tortola

https://twitter.com/whetherPROOF/status/905490888922673152

Awful, I was just there in July. One of my favorite places to visit.

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, jpeters3 said:

 

Starting to me to look like a concentric eyewall - the most defined outer eye wall i've seen since Monday.

 

 

 Inner one looks about 11nm (inner edge); outer is 30nm (inner edge)

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

The 1,000 Barbuda death number IS NOT CORRECT. The tweet later repeatedly mentions the line was awful and they weren't clear on that number and likely meant buildings. 

Only 1 fatality reported to date. 

Barbuda only has 1600 people

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, cwc said:

Andrew's surge was 16.9', and that was on a direct westerly course.  Fortunately, the only thing the surge really damaged was the BK HQ.  Of course, been a ton of development on the coast since Andrew.

I don't see surge being a huge problem if FL - mostly wind and general flooding.  Not Katrina or Harvey type flooding though.  E coast of FL is a different animal

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

[jpeters3]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm not sure, I switched over to composite and just looks like very intense banding around the eye, hence I deleted my post. 

With the recent pressure drop I doubt we're about to see an ERC. 

Anyway looks like both recon planes in Irma are headed home.

 

Yeah, honestly it's been hard to tell with this particular storm.  I've thought an ERC was about to begin several times, but the outer eyewalls seem to have merged with the inner without much disruption.  

Edit: Agreed - there seems to be no sign of the outer ring impeding the inner, or the storm weakening so who knows...

[wendy]

Many, many pictures of St. Martin here - https://www.facebook.com/stmartinnewsnetwork/

[andyhb]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

1926 Miami hurricane was a large storm. Also I've seen damage estimates from that scenario today and it would likely be the costliest natural disaster in US history.

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

How many examples of a LARGE cat 4/5 landfalling in southern Florida though?  I'm just throwing it out there.  Certainly don't have intimate knowledge of the coastal areas.

I have been asking this question for a little bit now. Anyone have an idea of what the surge + waves rolling into Miami would be in a worst case trajectory?