Major Hurricane Irma

[ncskywarn]

Interesting by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW.

[salbers]

Nice loop - looks like CDO is expanding.

[southernskimmer]

No communication from anybody on the island of Barbuda for over 14 hours now. Prime Minister just hoppped on a helicopter to survey the damage. Afraid of how sad this could be...

[LakeEffectKing]

5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Interesting by looking at the 200 image loop here http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100 if you look at the last 30 min of imagery there is a definite hint of a more NW movement be interesting to see if this is a wobble or the beginning of a turn to the NW.

Trochoidal movements....average the vector of motion over longer periods than an hour or two...

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time?

 

I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet.

Probably more the latter.  You'd be pretty crazy to forecast a cat 5 for 1 week straight. No matter, the forecast has a cat 4 approaching Florida which should be enough for people to take it very seriously.

[friedmators]

Microwave imagery has updated and shows a pretty bright band around 120 km out.

[beanskip]

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Trochoidal movements....average the vector of motion over longer periods than an hour or two...

Thank you for participating on this thread. It is good to have a voice of reason and science.

[Windspeed]

So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time?

 

 

 

I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet.

 

Climatology and forecast track. As the track goes further west, there is greater uncertainty about land interaction in the cone of uncertainty. That has to be incorporated into possible weakening, regardless of atmospheric modeling.

 

[Spanks45]

I have a friend who was riding out the storm right by Tutu Bay in the USVI. The facebook live feed cut out about 30 minutes before the core of the wall made its closest pass. I havent heard anything since then, winds looked to be gusting around 100 MPH right before it cut out...

[Lady Di]

Respecting the cone.  When she gets to 70w is that a good spot and time to be forecasting actual impacts?

[thess]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I have a friend who was riding out the storm right by Tutu Bay in the USVI. The facebook live feed cut out about 30 minutes before the core of the wall made its closest pass. I havent heard anything since then, winds looked to be gusting around 100 MPH right before it cut out...

I also noticed Brett Adair's been seemingly offline for about an hour (San Juan). 

[TalcottWx]

Two EPS clusters east and west of keys. Pretty solid divide. Need more time and runs to narrow goalposts. 

[Malcolm]

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

[NJwx85]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 062001
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
400 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...400 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF IRMA BATTERING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

An unofficial observing site on Culebra recently reported sustained
winds of 88 mph (142 km/h) and a gust to 111 mph (179 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 400 PM AST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 65.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

[Cold Rain]

1 minute ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Please don't ever go back to that message board again!

They won't merge or combine forces.  And there's no such thing as a category 8.

Welcome aboard!

[LakeEffectKing]

1 minute ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Don't ever go back to that message board....

[samdman95]

Just now, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

No. Absolutely not.  What happens when two cyclones interact is known as the Fujiwhara effect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

4 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

It is physically impossible for two Hurricanes to combine into one big hurricane, if they were close enough the Fujiwhara effect would occur, which won't happen in this case.

[Bostonseminole]

latest pass shows further deepening

[forecasterjack]

12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy! 

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

[NJwx85]

Aircraft Position: 18.72°N 65.22°W
Bearing: 297° at 257 kt
Altitude: 2371 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 15 kt at 178°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 912.5 mb

[toller65]

2 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

12Z EPS storm tracks have been added to weather.us, of course for free click the map to zoom in further or select tracks for different systems via the menus to the left. If you want to see tracks only out to a certain time, you can select the end time also using the menus. Enjoy! 

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

Jack - link broken

[MD-Dave]

98% of properties on Barbuda destroyed, according to Prime Minister on ABS TV/Radio.

[Drz1111]

Whatever was slightly holding Irma back this AM - minor land interaction, touch of a shear, whatever - its gone right now.  Aye mama this is as good looking as western atlantic  / subtropical storms get.

[friedmators]

1 minute ago, toller65 said:

Jack - link broken

works here

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

9 minutes ago, Malcolm said:

Newbie here.  My first post actually.   I appreciate all of the knowledge that I've come across during Harvey and now Irma.

I was on another message board and someone said: 

"The biggest danger would be if Jose overtakes Irma and the two combine into one big hurricane. It would likely be around a Category 8. Not 10 as both storms would lose some efficiency."

Is this a potential outcome?  If so, how likely?

Thank you.

Here is some advice. Stay here, read, and avoid that other website as it's complete garbage. 

Ouch

[wendy]

Prime Minister of Barbuda: Over 90% of structures have been demolished.

[forecasterjack]

2 minutes ago, toller65 said:

Jack - link broken

Works for me. In case posting it again would help: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

Whatever was slightly holding Irma back this AM - minor land interaction, touch of a shear, whatever - its gone right now.  Aye mama this is as good looking as western atlantic  / subtropical storms get.

Northeast PR has some 3500 mountains.  I kind of thought that by now that perhaps they would be disrupting the flow abit.  I guess not....

[toller65]

Just now, forecasterjack said:

Works for me. In case posting it again would help: https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/724-w-263-n/2017090612-240-irma.html 

works no, ghosts in the ether