LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I don't post often in this thread but really a stunning GFS and Euro runs today. I have followed tropical meteorology my whole life and have chased several hurricanes. What we see on today's runs is about the worst case scenario I could for see and something I have dreaded my whole life. A south to north Cat 4 type hurricane hugging the Florida east coast, with the eye a few miles west of the coast is devastating. Irma comes in just south of Miami. If the eye stays just west of the cities of Miami. Fort Laurderdale, West Palm Beach the high rise coast line gets the strong east and then south wind. Winds are stronger on the east side of the storm. Add the forward speed of the storm to the wind. Absolutely the worst track. Then heads all the way up to Georgia. This is a very scary solution. Potential high death toll. Not just from wind and rain but long lasting power outages with no way to get elderly and people out of high rises and no services for long periods of time. We have plenty of time for a shift to some small degree in the track. Last nights GFS track 50 miles east would have been hugely better. I hope S Florida realizes this is not just another hurricane. My fear is that it could be many times worse than anything the US has ever seen if this track and intensity holds... I'm posting this not to alarm but to make sure that people realize the gravity of a situation that could happen now that we are getting into the time frame over better model accuracy... You left out surge....something everyone needs to put very near the top of the list during LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: It is starting to look a little better, this thing needs to push north pretty quickly or PR is going to get smoked. PR should be fine (relatively speaking)...I could see a few gusts maybe getting to 90mph...but I doubt we will see observations of sustained winds much above 75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, bobbutts said: I suspect it would be difficult to plot a more damaging realistic path. Right through the densest populations in FL and a concerning path for Charleston wrt flooding. It certainly would be if we don't see a track shift in the next few days. The high res Euro wind gust product is pretty rough. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18z hurr models still focusing a bit east of FL east coast... pretty close to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A great discussion (as usual) from NWS GSP. Here's the most important part: AS OF 300 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: I'LL BEGIN THIS DISCUSSION WITH SOME TRIVIA - DID YOU KNOW THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN A 5-DAY TROPICAL SYSTEM FORECAST IS ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES? FOR REFERENCE, THAT'S ABOUT TWICE THE WIDTH OF THE FL PENINSULA, AND AN ERROR THAT SIZE COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE IMPACTS. UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM IS ACTUALLY GREATER THAN USUAL, AND THE TRACK FORECAST HAS CHANGED AND WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE GOING FORWARD. THIS ONLY UNDERSCORES THE NEED FOR EVERYONE IN THE CAROLINAS AND FLORIDA TO STAY ALERT AND PREPARED. http://kamala.cod.edu/sc/latest.fxus62.KGSP.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Full track of 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z hurr models still focusing a bit east of FL east coast... pretty close to the GFS Marked shift to the west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: It certainly would be if we don't see a track shift in the next few days. The high res Euro wind gust product is pretty rough. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/florida/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html Wow, that's pretty bad. This is also a great product/resource, best I've seen for the Euro for free. Is it usually available without a paywall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Drz1111 said: Newsflash: a bunch of models based on the 0Z GFS look like the 0Z GFS. Um, pretty sure they aren't all based off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Simulated IR just prior to LF (Euro): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Could be an extremely catastrophic hit for Miami if Euro verifies. Still sticking with my Matthew type track, just closer to the coast. Wouldn't doubt Irma being a 5 as it makes its close approach to Miami (assuming it does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 41 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: this is my worry on the west coast of Florida, if it gets just barely east of or directly under Florida I dont see a storm this size slamming on the brakes and making a nearly 90 degree turn to the right, even nnw at that point puts the west coast right in line Storms this size make turns this sharp all the time. They aren't Mack Trucks - they are air and water vapor, and don't have momentum, really - they are just leaves in a stream. Also when you look at a track I think people forget the turn depicted takes about 36 hours and isn't instantaneous and doesn't involve "slamming brakes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Raw T# to 7.3. Highest it's been thus far. Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 7.1 7.3 7.3 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 12Z EPS mean loses it's cohesiveness after 72 hour, but it appears like it scrapes Cuba tracks over the Keys and then makes LF on the west side of Florida. But, boy, those members are unusually dispersive for this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bdgwx said: The 12Z EPS mean loses it's cohesiveness after 72 hour, but it appears like it scrapes Cuba tracks over the Keys and then makes LF on the west side of Florida. But, boy, those members are unusually dispersive for this lead time. Respect the cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Respect the cone Looks like a lot of crushing blows to the Tampa area in there. EPS that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So if this hits Miami as modeled...how big are the waves that flood Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 A few EPS members run this right up the coast and dump into the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Now what? Evacuate the entire state of Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 USAR teams that were to DEMOB today, are now being redirected to pre-stage for Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. Less than an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Sorry folks (even NHC with its gradual weakening on the intensity forecast), Irma isn't having an ERC. It isn't weakening. If it lost any intensity from its peak within the last 12 hours it is in the process of regaining it and then some. It hasn't even hit the warmest waters in its path yet, and there's no substantial shear forecast to counteract that. Think of Irma as the hurricane equivalent of some of the tornadoes on April 27, 2011 that had obscenely long path lengths and maintained high end EF4 to EF5 intensity over an abnormally large portion of that path, because they were in the perfect environment to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: How long until we get another recon pass? T#'s continue to steadily rise. Plane is in SE quad now. Flying NW. Bout 25-30mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Wave to interact with Irma after landfall to pull it west is still hanging out in the Northern Rockies (MT/WY), though starting to descend southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, irishbri74 said: Plane is in SE quad now. Flying NW. Bout 25-30mins Anxious to see what it says and if it reflects the ADT increases in strength. Also interested to see if all 4 quadrants are still maintaining their incredible and uniform strength without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NWS San Juan had a severe t'storm warning out for one of the PR islands not too long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Starting to see inner eye mesovortices sculpt the eyewall into the square/pentagon that Harvey had upon landfall. You will really see it well as the center comes into view on the TSJU FAA terminal doppler weather radar over the next hour. It's in rapid scan mode, capturing images each minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 So just a basic question...is the weakening trend more based on what models are seeing, or simply precedents that hurricanes in the Atlantic can't maintain this strength for a week at the time? I say this because since it hit 185 last night, every intensity forecast has had a weakening process starting immediately, but it hasn't happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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