hudsonvalley21 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Euro run is roughly 24 hours from the southern tip of Florida to the northern state line. Not a good run but at least it is moving along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The Euro is handling the trough much differently this run 12z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 recon w/ 913.6mb extrap, actual pressure higher but it is def still strengthening significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 For purposes of illustration, here's how Irma is forecast to track on the 12z ECMWF between 96 hours and 120 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 A bit of a moat now developing around the eyewall, I wonder if we're about to see an ERC. If true, that would potentially be bad news for PR with the larger diameter eye taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For purposes of illustration, here's how Irma is forecast to track on the 12z ECMWF between 96 hours and 120 hours: If my math is right, that's around 14 mph of forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, friedmators said: That poleward turn is serious. 90 degrees basically in a short period of time. If the turn is not as pronounced or happens a touch later, Western Florida could easily take a major hit. I was hoping to give my friend in Fort Meyers some relief after this Euro run but i don't think I can. On the other hand if that turn occurs sooner then Miami doesn't get hit directly. It stays off the coast 4 days out and 50 miles either way can make a big difference. Going to be interesting watching to see exactly where she makes her turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Full track of 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pressure back down to 917 mb, per latest recon dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 13 minutes ago, friedmators said: That poleward turn is serious. 90 degrees basically in a short period of time. If the turn is not as pronounced or happens a touch later, Western Florida could easily take a major hit. I was hoping to give my friend in Fort Meyers some relief after this Euro run but i don't think I can. this is my worry on the west coast of Florida, if it gets just barely east of or directly under Florida I dont see a storm this size slamming on the brakes and making a nearly 90 degree turn to the right, even nnw at that point puts the west coast right in line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Heck of an ob out of San Juan: Quote TJSJ 061756Z COR 34021G39KT 4SM -RA BR FEW021 BKN029 OVC060 28/26 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 33039/1750 PRESFR SLP022 LAST OBSERVATION DUE TO HURICANE EVACUATING SJU TWR P0002 60072 T02780256 10300 20239 58063 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A bit of a moat now developing around the eyewall, I wonder if we're about to see an ERC. If true, that would potentially be bad news for PR with the larger diameter eye taking over. No. That is a steady state core. No signs of weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Direct hit on Miami with the RFQ What's the deal with the max 10m wind 99.2, is there significant weakening taking place somewhere during the run or ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 With St. Thomas getting a very prolonged experience in the southern eyewall, even being the weaker side, the length of time is devestating anything on those ridges. Fortunately, the town of Charlotte Amalie may be protected somewhat from getting the worst sustained winds in the southern eyewall as it is tucked away on the south harbour. It will not be in the eastern eyewall which is critical for missing the Cat 4 and 5 windspeeds and the highest surge. On-shore wind will still be at hurricane force however as Irma moves WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Starting to see inner eye mesovortices sculpt the eyewall into the square/pentagon that Harvey had upon landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Full track of 12Z Euro. Worst case scenario. ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Full track of 12Z Euro. I suspect it would be difficult to plot a more damaging realistic path. Right through the densest populations in FL and a concerning path for Charleston wrt flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A bit of a moat now developing around the eyewall, I wonder if we're about to see an ERC. If true, that would potentially be bad news for PR with the larger diameter eye taking over. Looks like we havent had a MW pass in about 8 hours either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Amazing how strong it has kept itself for so long. And it's probably slightly strengthening at this moment. The Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, Cuba and FL are in for quite a ride. Shaping up to be one of those seasons in the Atlantic. And now Katia probably going to be upgraded to hurricane in the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Looks like we havent had a MW pass in about 8 hours either. luckily we have a great wsr88d with dual pol technology on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm still utterly amazed that this storm is possibly going to thread the entire way without the eye hitting PR/DR/Cuba. I love seeing history, but man this is going to demolish some cities and take some lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, bobbutts said: What's the deal with the max 10m wind 99.2, is there significant weakening taking place somewhere during the run or ?? No, the intensity forecast on global models are unstable, toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, bobbutts said: What's the deal with the max 10m wind 99.2, is there significant weakening taking place somewhere during the run or ?? The mets previously in the thread said that the Euro isn't handling the higher than normal winds in the current pressure very well, so best to ignore the winds the Euro is pumping out and focus on the track it gives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildFlower Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Historic climatology for major hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Irma's recent positions and avoiding landfall on Cuba (as appears increasingly likely with Irma) were typically at Category 4 strength upon Florida landfall. Florida landfall still appears somewhat more likely than not and the 12z ECMWF run hammers home that point. Southern Florida should be preparing for a Category 4 or possibly 5 landfall. Hopefully, Irma will miss to the East, but that's far from assured. Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!! First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious. I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time. I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean. I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do. A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The lack of IWRC is incredible. It may have something to due with some of the annular properties it was exhibiting earlier. If it keeps on chugging like this Florida is really in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I don't post often in this thread but really a stunning GFS and Euro runs today. I have followed tropical meteorology my whole life and have chased several hurricanes. What we see on today's runs is about the worst case scenario I could for see and something I have dreaded my whole life. A south to north Cat 4 type hurricane hugging the Florida east coast, with the eye a few miles west of the coast is devastating. Irma comes in just south of Miami. If the eye stays just west of the cities of Miami. Fort Laurderdale, West Palm Beach the high rise coast line gets the strong east and then south wind. Winds are stronger on the east side of the storm. Add the forward speed of the storm to the wind. Absolutely the worst track. Then heads all the way up to Georgia. This is a very scary solution. Potential high death toll. Not just from wind and rain but long lasting power outages with no way to get elderly and people out of high rises and no services for long periods of time. We have plenty of time for a shift to some small degree in the track. Last nights GFS track 50 miles east would have been hugely better. I hope S Florida realizes this is not just another hurricane. My fear is that it could be many times worse than anything the US has ever seen if this track and intensity holds... I'm posting this not to alarm but to make sure that people realize the gravity of a situation that could happen now that we are getting into the time frame over better model accuracy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation. According to CIMSS shear analysis, yes, a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation. It is starting to look a little better, this thing needs to push north pretty quickly or PR is going to get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 It is starting to look a little better, this thing needs to push north pretty quickly or PR is going to get smoked.It's already north of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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