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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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8 minutes ago, friedmators said:

That poleward turn is serious. 90 degrees basically in a short period of time.  If the turn is not as pronounced or happens a touch later, Western Florida could easily take a major hit.  I was hoping to give my friend in Fort Meyers some relief after this Euro run but i don't think I can.

On the other hand if that turn occurs sooner then Miami doesn't get hit directly. It stays off the coast 4 days out and 50 miles either way can make a big difference. Going to be interesting watching to see exactly where she makes her turn.

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13 minutes ago, friedmators said:

That poleward turn is serious. 90 degrees basically in a short period of time.  If the turn is not as pronounced or happens a touch later, Western Florida could easily take a major hit.  I was hoping to give my friend in Fort Meyers some relief after this Euro run but i don't think I can.

this is my worry on the west coast of Florida, if it gets just barely east of or directly under Florida I dont see a storm this size slamming on the brakes and making a nearly 90 degree turn to the right, even nnw at that point puts the west coast right in line 

 

 

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With St. Thomas getting a very prolonged experience in the southern eyewall, even being the weaker side, the length of time is devestating anything on those ridges. Fortunately, the town of Charlotte Amalie may be protected somewhat from getting the worst sustained winds in the southern eyewall as it is tucked away on the south harbour. It will not be in the eastern eyewall which is critical for missing the Cat 4 and 5 windspeeds and the highest surge. On-shore wind will still be at hurricane force however as Irma moves WNW.

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Amazing how strong it has kept itself for so long. And it's probably slightly strengthening at this moment. The Bahamas, Turks & Caicos, Cuba and FL are in for quite a ride. Shaping up to be one of those seasons in the Atlantic. And now Katia probably going to be upgraded to hurricane in the next advisory.

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11 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

What's the deal with the max 10m wind 99.2, is there significant weakening taking place somewhere during the run or ??

The mets previously in the thread said that the Euro isn't handling the higher than normal winds in the current pressure very well, so  best to ignore the winds the Euro is pumping out and focus on the track it gives.

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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Historic climatology for major hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Irma's recent positions and avoiding landfall on Cuba (as appears increasingly likely with Irma) were typically at Category 4 strength upon Florida landfall. Florida landfall still appears somewhat more likely than not and the 12z ECMWF run hammers home that point. Southern Florida should be preparing for a Category 4 or possibly 5 landfall. Hopefully, Irma will miss to the East, but that's far from assured.

Praying for something, anything, any kind of interference to make that nasty girl calm down a bit before she slams us here (south florida) AND/OR further up the coast!!  First time I heard the name Irma I felt a bit anxious.  I was member #660 when easternuswx was around, and I recognize many of you folks from that time.  I lived in Stuart when I joined the old forum and experienced Francis & Jean.  I appreciated you all then and I obviously still do.  A BIGGG thanks to all for your posts and for sharing useful and intelligent information... KNOWLEDGE IS POWER!!  

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I don't post often in this thread but really a stunning GFS and Euro runs today.  I have followed tropical meteorology my whole life and have chased several hurricanes.  What we see on today's runs is about the worst case scenario I could for see and something I have dreaded my whole life.

A south to north Cat 4 type hurricane hugging the Florida east coast, with the eye a few miles west of the coast is devastating.  Irma comes in just south of Miami.  If the eye stays just west of the cities of Miami. Fort Laurderdale, West Palm Beach  the high rise coast line gets the strong east and then south wind.  Winds are stronger on the east side of the storm.  Add the forward speed of the storm to the wind.  Absolutely the worst track.  Then heads all the way up to Georgia.  

This is a very scary solution. Potential high death toll.  Not just from wind and rain but long lasting power outages with no way to get elderly and people out of high rises and no services for long periods of time. We have plenty of time for a shift to some small degree in the track.  Last nights GFS track 50 miles east would have been hugely better.

I hope S Florida realizes this is not just another hurricane.  My fear is that it could be many times worse than anything the US has ever seen if this track and intensity holds... I'm posting this not to alarm but to make sure that people realize the gravity of a situation that could happen now that we are getting into the time frame over better model accuracy...

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1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The shear that was inhibiting the western side of the outflow has seemingly relaxed, at least based on the IR presentation.

 

meso1_13_20170906185924.jpg

It is starting to look a little better, this thing needs to push north pretty quickly or PR is going to get smoked.

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