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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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Honestly going to take some legit land interaction or dry air to slow Irma down strength wise significantly imo... because YIKES when it gets to those bath waters in the Bahamas near Florida. 

 

Obviously there could be structural changes. But there is so many days left to go, even if a large ERC takes place, perhaps even a few of these, it could still be a borderline 4/5 as it approaches the southern peninsula. Really pouring over 500mb and 250mb maps to try and see how the upper flow pivots as Irma is turning north. The upper environment isn't 360° of perfection like it is now, but the 200 polar outflow channel is on steroids. Give and take, the environment still looks very supportive of an intense major hurricane as it begins northerly motion. Mid-to-upper doesn't really seem to be conducive for strong negative effects and a weakening core until it would already be well inland over the northern peninsula or at the latitude of Jacksonville. And that will depend on how fast Irma is moving N to NNW and how much continental airmass can be undercut into Irma due to the 500-250mb flow around the upper trough to its west.

 

In short, without significant land interaction, Irma can easily still be a large size Category 4 upon a potential Florida landfall if the track verifies. Perhaps even a 5 depending on its internal structure.

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Obviously there could be structural changes. But there is so many days left to go, even if a large ERC takes place, perhaps even a few of these, it could still be a borderline 4/5 as it approaches the southern peninsula. Really pouring over 500mb and 250mb maps to try and see how the upper flow pivots as Irma is turning north. The upper environment isn't 360° of perfection like it is now, but the 200 polar outflow channel is on steroids. Give and take, the environment still looks very supportive of an intense major hurricane as it begins northerly motion. Mid-to-upper doesn't really seem to be conducive for strong negative effects and a weakening core until it would already be well inland over the northern peninsula or at the latitude of Jacksonville. And that will depend on how fast Irma is moving N to NNW and how much continetal airmass can be undercut into Irma due to the 500-250mb flow around the upper trough to its west.

In short, without significant land interaction, Irma can easily still be a large size Category 4 upon a potential Florida landfall if the track verifies. Perhaps even a 5 depending on its internal structure.

Historic climatology for major hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Irma's recent positions and avoiding landfall on Cuba (as appears increasingly likely with Irma) were typically at Category 4 strength upon Florida landfall. Florida landfall still appears somewhat more likely than not and the 12z ECMWF run hammers home that point. Southern Florida should be preparing for a Category 4 or possibly 5 landfall. Hopefully, Irma will miss to the East, but that's far from assured.

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We're inside the Euro's wheelhouse now. In less than six days Irma will be inland, most likely over GA or SC.

It appears that the eye, at least the Western eye will pass very close to Miami, in a possible worse case scenario, however a few miles in either direction can obviously have a tremendous shift.

However...we now have tremendous model agreement with the UKMET/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM all showing Irma very close to the SE FL peninsula on Saturday.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Man, I keep staring at that San Juan radar image loop and that eye is way too close for comfort, along with its trajectory if I am living in San Juan right now. It just refuses to want to move more north and west than progged, imo anyway.

Agreed. Maybe not the eye itself, but the eye wall looks like it could hit the northern fringe of the city.

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