bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:35 PM, WishingForWarmWeather said: Raw T# back up to 7.1 Expand I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better. Guessing it's probably a bit of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan is right on the edge of the core now, conditions should be deteriorating there rapidly. The airport is already gusting over 50MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:40 PM, bobbutts said: I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better. Guessing it's probably a bit of both. Expand Oddly, the picture I posted is not updated. Does this show the updated version? I screens hotted it instead of copy pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Strong consensus so far today. Expand That's Miami, North Miami Beach, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale all the way up to Jupiter and Hobe Sound slam. I could see a track similar to Jeanne or Frances circa 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Picking up 157kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:35 PM, WishingForWarmWeather said: Raw T# back up to 7.1 Expand http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:43 PM, NJwx85 said: San Juan is right on the edge of the core now, conditions should be deteriorating there rapidly. The airport is already gusting over 50MPH. Expand I still think they probably are too far south but may see some gusts into the low 60s in 3 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:51 PM, jaxjagman said: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Expand Sorry! Also, I reposted the graph again in a subsequent post because for some reason it linked to an older graph. Thanks for posting the link for others to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 NHC 2 pm Update: Hurricane Irma has maintained its strength, even as it passes over the British Virgin Islands. Its maximum sustained winds were 185 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2:00 PM AST Wed Sep 6Location: 18.5°N 64.7°WMoving: WNW at 16 mphMin pressure: 920 mbMax sustained: 185 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GEFS are tightly clustered around the OP track with no OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 4:58 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah shallow waters. Forgot about that. Irma has exhibited an interesting tendency to have its lower trospheric winds to be considerably stronger than flight level. Expand This. It's behaving like Mitch. I suspect that's due to the very intense warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Good camera to follow while it lasts in San Juan. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/puertorico/sanjuan/?cam=sanjuan3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 5:57 PM, csnavywx said: This. It's behaving like Mitch. I suspect that's due to the very intense warm core. Expand Honestly going to take some legit land interaction or dry air to slow Irma down strength wise significantly imo... because YIKES when it gets to those bath waters in the Bahamas near Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Briefly hit 171kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:09 PM, TriPol said: 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Expand No. It misses Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:01 PM, jojo762 said: Honestly going to take some legit land interaction or dry air to slow Irma down strength wise significantly imo... because YIKES when it gets to those bath waters in the Bahamas near Florida. Expand On 9/6/2017 at 6:09 PM, TriPol said: 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Expand Funny reading the Sun Sentinel and Palm Beach Post, I think the PB Post reads Eastern. They seem to be poo pooing things and hanging on a few model runs showing things going way east and just missing them. The Sun Sentinel following NHC and stating the seriousness of the situation for South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12z Euro and GFS pretty similar at 72 hours. The Euro has slightly stronger ridging though so this run should equal/be worse than the GFS for Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:09 PM, TriPol said: 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Expand It's offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:09 PM, TriPol said: 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Expand NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The Euro starts to turn North at hrs 84-87, and shows a deepening and intensifying system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Deja vu with the declarations of Euro hitting Cuba. If you aren't looking at a high enough resolution map to actually see what's happening, probably don't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What a beautiful, yet terrifying beast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Pretty much a worse case track, ignore the intensity, it's way off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:09 PM, TriPol said: 12Z EURO looks like Irma makes landfall in central Cuba. Out to 72. Expand It doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Direct hit on Miami with the RFQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 6:11 PM, NJwx85 said: NO Expand No fantasy hockey sticking, taking it straight to Hatteras and bypassing Florida. That scenario is clearly an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A very bad southern Florida hit on the ECMWF. The 12z run is a compromise between the 9/5 12z and 9/6 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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