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Major Hurricane Irma


NJwx85

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St. Thomas, U. S. Virgin Islands, gusts to 76 kt (87mph) recently

TIST 061553Z AUTO 32051G76KT 1/2SM RA FG OVC014 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31076/1547 SLPNO P0016 T02610261
TIST 061543Z AUTO 32045G69KT 300V360 3/4SM RA BR OVC014 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31074/1521 P0012 T02610256
TIST 061525Z AUTO 32039G74KT 3/4SM RA BR OVC016 26/26 RMK AO2 PK WND 31074/1521 P0006 T02610256 $

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ukie still takes the cuba trip.  

So my only real UK access are the meteo maps and they 1) aren't great and 2) aren't even out yet for the eastern caribbean. How is the UK doing short term? Like, is it north of PR and the DR then kinda curves back into Cuba a bit or is it south the whole way? Just wondering if there's anything we can infer from the shorter term movement. Thanks!

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

12z GEFS members in good agreement now with the OP

59b02aa613004.png

 

Still a camp of slower members that hit Florida further West, but I think me might be getting close to a consensus. 

59b02acabcfd2.png

59b02b053d068.png

Confidence seems to be increasing, but the track we're becoming more confident in has a huge range of impacts still.

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33 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Maybe older ones, but that is 28 years ago, a generation ago.

I'm 36 now...I remember it vividly! Surfside/Garden City looked like Hiroshima. The forest where the eye hit was nothing but 25-30' tall sticks. 

 

 It's what took my interest in extreme weather from being intrigued  to becoming a full blown fanatic! heh 

 

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28 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much.

I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here.

I own a home in Sea Pines on Hilton Head. Like Charleston, I can attest that we got pummeled by Matthew, and everyone is very worried right now, as this is looking like Matthew's nasty big sister. Our only saving grace may be that Matthew took down a lot of the more vulnerable trees. Took down two old loblolly pines in my front yard, the live oaks fared much better island wide. 

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4 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

So my only real UK access are the meteo maps and they 1) aren't great and 2) aren't even out yet for the eastern caribbean. How is the UK doing short term? Like, is it north of PR and the DR then kinda curves back into Cuba a bit or is it south the whole way? Just wondering if there's anything we can infer from the shorter term movement. Thanks!

Here's a better look at the 00z Ukie (12z will take a while still).

2.track.current.thumb.png.169daa6274d2d1d9a9939b206391b288.png

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000
WTNT61 KNHC 061657
TCUAT1

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017

...100 PM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF IRMA PASSING OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...

A wind gust to 110 mph (177 km/h) has recently been reported at
Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Charlotte Amalie in
the U.S. Virgin Islands recently reported a wind gust to 82 mph
(131 km/hr)

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 64.5W
ABOUT  35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

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1 minute ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

Per NHC earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds would be Sunday during the day, I recommend you just keep up with NHC's website, they're the best in the business.  

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2 minutes ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

Around dinnertime/evening on Monday for actual landfall, a lot earlier than that for tropical storm winds

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5 minutes ago, wbsander said:

I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border?

145453_most_likely_toa_no_wsp_34.png

You can find the official product here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?mltoa34#contents

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