McQuackleton Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Can someone post an image of the wind speeds around each quadrant? I'm curious to see the differences. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I know its only 12-18 hours out but the 0Z Euro location looks to be dead nuts on for the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: I was in Charleston in July. I walked along the promenade where there are massive houses. I spoke with one of the owners, who told me that all of the previous homes in that area had been destroyed in Hugo, and the current homes were all built since then... If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, PSLwx said: Live in an independent/assisted senior facility well inland in Stuart FL. If Irma is forecast to hit here as a Cat Five 150 people will have to evacuate by bus to Tarpon Springs. Roads will be gridlocked and I'm afraid the risks for 150 seniors being stuck on a bus are far greater than staying in this very sturdily-built 3-story building. (See Rita/Houston). So it's not just the forecast of where Irma's going but how intense it will be when/if it gets here that's critically important to us. This board is a Godsend in that regard; keep up the great work. [Just to share one of many such stories playing out in SFL; now back to lurking] I don't think this point has been emphasized enough. The gridlock is going to be incomprehensible as folks try to escape northward out of the peninsula...they need to impose a travel deadline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 In August 1992 Hurricane Andrew hit Homestead, FL as a Cat 5. Destruction in the southern Miami suburbs was unprecedented. In April 1993 my wife and I took a vacation to south Florida. We drove around the Homestead area. At the time there were undeveloped areas along with ravaged neighborhoods. We drove down Palm Dr. (SW 344th St.) which is the road that leads to the Turkey Point Nuclear Plant. Destruction in the area was total (The nuclear plant was okay and back in operation). Entire forests were ripped out of the ground by the roots and the trees were laying on their sides. The tops of the trees were pointed towards the east as the center of the storm had passed slightly to the north of that street. Of course they were dead. If you are familiar with south Florida it is topsoil layered on top of coral. The coral has the consistency of concrete and has a tan color. The trees that I saw were covered in this tan dust - it had an apocalyptic look to it. In any case if you live or know people who live in South Florida you should make plans on where you are going to weather the storm. If you have a concrete safe room in your home you might be okay. If you do not you are not going to be safe there. If you are in a low lying area that can flood plan to leave. Same goes if you in the Keys. Know where your neighborhood shelter is located. If you are going to drive north it is 5 hours and 30 minutes to Jacksonville and 4 hours to Orlando - without traffic. Don't wait until later in the week to make this decision. The highways will be jammed once people start to realize what this storm can do. While it is not definite that the storm will make a direct hit in the Miami area the simple fact is that numerous model runs are indicating exactly that. While we all know that the rule regarding these forecast models is to wait until we get closer to the event the simple fact is by the time a Hurricane Watch is issued it will probably be too late to leave due the amount of traffic that will be going on to the highways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: Can someone post an image of the wind speeds around each quadrant? I'm curious to see the differences. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. Destroyed, severely damaged, potato, potato....you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: I would imagine Hugo is still rather fresh in the minds of many South Carolinians. 1989 population for the 4 coastal SC counties was around 570,000 and is now close to 1 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 some good twitter accounts to follow since the discussion here is so bad: https://twitter.com/splillo https://twitter.com/EricBlake12 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton https://twitter.com/antmasiello https://twitter.com/philklotzbach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 not sure if posted but.. https://video.nest.com/embedded/live/uIA8Yuxk18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Eastern eye wall just passed through Beef Island/Tortula Airport (EIS). Are there any obs coming from that location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Looks like there was just a wobble NW which could help the eye pass to the N of PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, friedmators said: Looks like San Juan is gonna luck out. Close but looking at GR2 Irma's EW should pass just to the North. Southern eye wall looks to pass 10 - 25 miles north of Puerto Rico north coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: some good twitter accounts to follow since the discussion here is so bad: https://twitter.com/splillo https://twitter.com/EricBlake12 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton https://twitter.com/antmasiello https://twitter.com/philklotzbach All great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The northern wobble will spare St. Thomas a little it looks like but they will brush the southern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrongVerb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. I have a friend and her dad who live in Savannah and much to my chagrin they both decided to ride out Matthew instead of evacuating. I've warned them again, but knowing their stubbornness, I suspect they're going to put themselves in danger by staying put. That said, let me ask a bit of a question for the entire board: how well modeled is the ridge sitting in the Atlantic? I ask this because it's my assumption that with less data than we have over land, it would be harder to model that piece of this puzzle. Is that right or am I (as usual) talking out my butt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 There was a 172 kt sfmr in the northwest eyewall on the latest pass. Not sure if it's corroborated with other data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'm not sure if this was mentioned already, but it looks like 170+ knot winds were found at the surface according to recon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 10 hours ago, bobbutts said: Looks like we had 100% camera destruction from these feeds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just a reminder, there is a designated threat for local questions, including about evacuations. Please use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Gusting to 106mph right now. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVISTTHO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: There was a 172 kt sfmr in the northwest eyewall on the latest pass. Not sure if it's corroborated with other data. dude, come on. you know better. 8 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: I'm not sure if this was mentioned already, but it looks like 170+ knot winds were found at the surface according to recon... rain contaminated like a mf and in shallow waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 172kt. SFMR looks like it was over land based on google earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12z UKIE takes Irma right up the east coast of FL and second landfall in SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Any idea why Delta flew #DL431 from JFK-SJU at 10 a.m.? That seems ... different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, cmasty1978 said: dude, come on. you know better. rain contaminated like a mf and in shallow waters. Yeah shallow waters. Forgot about that. Irma has exhibited an interesting tendency to have its lower trospheric winds to be considerably stronger than flight level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcb72 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The 172 kt SMFR observation was flagged (code 05) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ukie still takes the cuba trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 As folks are seeing, Irma has been slowly moving NW and if continues like that, it should miss PR to the north (loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.